金融危機下的居民消費模型及趨勢預(yù)測.pdf

1、中南大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文金融危機下的居民消費模型及趨勢預(yù)測姓名：毛海棠申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：統(tǒng)計學(xué)指導(dǎo)教師：王志忠20090501ABSTRACTFinancialCrisishavingbecomemoreandmoreserious，ChineseEconomy，whosegrowthliesonexportclosely，hasgotsevereimpactInresponsetotheraidofthefinancialcrisi

2、sandensurethegrowthof、nationaleconomicgrowth，thegovernmentputforwardpoliciestoexpanddomesticdemandintimeHouseholdConsumptionisthemaincontentofconsumptiondemand，SOresearchontheconsumerproblemunderthebackgroundofthefinanci

3、alcrisisisofgreatsignificanceBaseontheconsumptiontheoryofmodemeconomics，thispapermakesuseofStatisticalAnalysisandeconometricmethodsandmodelstomainlystudycontentsbelow：First，thepapermakesacointegrationanalysisoflong—runeq

4、uilibriumrelationshipbetweenhouseholdconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinOurcountry，andfirstlyproposesemi—parametricpartlylinearmodelwithvariablecoefficientsaboutChinesehouseholdconsumption，andhasmadeananalysisofitThemodelwell

5、revealstherelationshipbetweenhouseholdconsumption，percapitaGDP，savingsandpre—consumingbehavior，andprovideatheoreticalbasisforforecastingthetrendofhouseholdconsumptionSecond，inthebasisofpreviouswork，thispaperhasestablishe

6、dtheextendedlinearexpendituremodelandthePanelDataModel，andmadeanestimationofparametersbyLSEandanalyzedthesemodels；furthermore，ithasmadeapredictionofthechangeofthestructureofnationalhouseholdconsumptionFinally，basedonthec

7、onclusionofthestudy，thispaperproposedseveralsuggestionstopromoteeconomicgrowthinthehopethatthesesuggestionwillprovidesomehelpforourcountrytotideoverthefinancialcrisissmoothlyKeywords：householdconsumption，economicgrowth，C