瑞銀-中國-消費電子行業(yè)-中國家電業(yè)：2017q4結(jié)果與結(jié)果和2018投資主題–產(chǎn)品升級和全球擴張.25-48頁

1、 www.ubssecurities.com This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Co. Limited. A summary of this report was first published on 25 January 2018. The Chinese version of this research report was published by UBS Secu

2、rities Co Ltd on 25 January 2018. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 41. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aw

3、are that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. abc Global Research

4、 25 January 2018 China Home Appliance Sector Q417 results and 2018 investment themes – product upgrades and global expansion [ERRATUM] White goods leaders' Q417 revenue still strong; margins grew QoQ We think whit

5、e goods leaders' aggregate revenue growth (excluding M 2) upside for A/C penetration and ownership rates in lower- tier cities; and 3) leading players’ potential to expand globally (see our report). Our top pick in

6、the sector is Gree (low valuation, high dividends and resilient domestic A/C sales in 2018); we see valuation upside for Haier/Midea due to brand upgrading and faster overseas expansion. Based on our revised EPS foreca

7、sts and higher mid-to-long-term visibility, we are raising our price targets for Haier/Gree/Midea by 25%/15%/10%. Restocking demand to support H118 A/C deliveries; faster product upgrades According to ChinaIOL.com, dome

8、stic A/C deliveries increased 20% YoY in Q417 (vs. +56% in 9M17), and we expect double-digit growth in H118 due to relatively low channel inventory. Washing machine/refrigerator prices rose 10-12% YoY in Q417 due to r

9、eplacement demand and consumption upgrades and became major drivers of sector growth. We are lifting our 2017-19E EPS for Gree/Haier/Midea by 1-5% and their mid- term growth by 4-5ppts to 8-11% to reflect the sector lea

10、ders’ faster product mix upgrades and improving brand images in the domestic and foreign markets. 2018 investment themes: Consumption upgrades and global expansion In 2018, we think leading white goods makers will conti

11、nue to benefit from: 1) higher ASPs (single-digit growth, with sales volume up 3-5%) due to strong consumption upgrade momentum (especially in lower-tier cities) and faster replacement of washing machines, which we ex

12、pect will become a more important sector driver; and 2) leaders' faster expansion in the foreign market due to innovative technologies and overseas M as of 24 January 2018 Price PT P/E PEG EPS CAGR(Rmb) (Rmb) 2017E

13、 2018E 2019E 2018E 2017-19 2017E 2018E 2019E 2017E 2018E 2019EGree 000651.sz Buy 55.77 60.49 15.8 13.5 12.3 1.0 14% 36% 37% 37% 5.4% 6.7% 7.3%Haier 600690.ss Buy 22.04 25.59 19.1 15.8 13.2 0.8 21% 24% 24% 24% 1.6% 1.9% 2

14、.3%Midea 000333.sz Buy 60.41 67.19 22.9 17.6 15.1 0.8 23% 26% 28% 28% 2.0% 3.8% 4.0%Supor 002032.sz Buy 46.26 47.01 28.5 23.8 20.2 1.3 19% 27% 27% 27% 1.4% 1.7% 2.0%Hisense 600060.ss Buy 16.57 18.29 20.8 12.9 11.6 0.4 34

15、% 8% 12% 12% 1.5% 2.4% 2.6%Robam 002508.sz Neutral 53.90 50.60 31.9 26.1 22.5 1.4 19% 34% 32% 30% 0.9% 1.2% 1.3%Joyoung 002242.sz Neutral 18.17 20.01 19.4 18.0 16.7 2.4 8% 19% 18% 19% 4.1% 4.5% 4.8%SZ MTC 002429.sz Sell

16、3.36 2.98 28.7 23.2 21.5 1.5 15% 7% 8% 7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5%ROE Dividend Yield Company Ticker RatingEquities China Consumer Electronics Tony Wang Analyst S1460516030001 tony-b.wang@ubssecurities.com +86-213- 866 8830 Sole Su

17、n Associate sole.sun@ubssecurities.com +86-213-866 8876 China Home Appliance Sector 25 January 2018 abc 3 China Home Appliance Sector UBS-S Research PIVOTAL QUESTIONS Q: How will a slowing property market affect whi

18、te goods sales in 2018-19? UBS-S VIEW While 2018/19 white goods sales will likely slow due to the lagging impact of slower property sales in H217 and a high base in the A/C sector, we estimate A/C/washing machine/refri

19、gerator domestic deliveries in 2018 will grow 5.9%/2.8%/-2.4%, driven by replacement demand due to product mix upgrades and higher A/C penetration in lower-tier markets, in our view. We also expect looser property mar

20、ket policies in tier-2 cities and the higher shantytown renovation target set by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) to drive up white goods sales in H218 and 2019, with high-single-digit grow

21、th of white goods ASPs boosted by consumption and product upgrades. EVIDENCE 1) We estimate property sales have a 6-to-12-month lagging impact on white goods deliveries, and replacement demand accounts for more than 70

22、% of demand in the white goods sector, or 60%/80%/75% of demand for A/Cs/washing machines/refrigerators. Therefore, we expect robust property sales in tier-3/4 cities in 9M17 to support H118 white goods sales. 2) T

23、he UBS macro team forecasts a 0-2% decrease in China’s 2018 property sales. However, tier-2 cities, including Nanjing, Guangzhou and Tianjin, recently loosened their property market policies, adjusting a number of home

24、 purchase restrictions (eg, homebuyer eligibility criteria), to ensure reasonable and inelastic demand is satisfied. In addition, MOHURD raised its shantytown renovation target to 5.80m units from 5m units. 3) With ma

25、nufacturer and channel A/C inventory at a historical trough, we expect restocking demand to continue to drive up A/C deliveries in H118. WHAT'S PRICED IN? We think investors are focusing on future demand and upside

26、in China’s home appliance market, and the valuations of leading Chinese players do not fully reflect their ability to innovate and expand foreign market share. We expect replacement demand to be the main driver of whit

27、e goods sector growth According to our estimates, replacement demand accounts for more than 70% of demand in the white goods sector, or 60%/80%/75% of demand for A/Cs/washing machines/refrigerators, indicating the sect