我國(guó)八大經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)域gdp趨勢(shì)及差異分析-本科畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)

1、我國(guó)我國(guó)GDP八大經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)域差異及趨勢(shì)分析八大經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)域差異及趨勢(shì)分析摘要：本文研究的重點(diǎn)是基于我國(guó)GDP八大經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)域的差異及趨勢(shì)分析，涉及數(shù)據(jù)的曲線擬合、聚類分析、時(shí)間序列ARMA模型，等方面的算法研究。首先從中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)網(wǎng)官網(wǎng)獲取我國(guó)八大經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)域1993年至2013年的GDP數(shù)據(jù)，然后通過(guò)繪制數(shù)據(jù)的散點(diǎn)圖來(lái)觀察數(shù)據(jù)的整體走勢(shì)。根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)的特點(diǎn)，通過(guò)matlab曲線擬合工具箱分別對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行擬合，結(jié)合數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)應(yīng)年份的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策，確定使用三次函數(shù)為

2、最優(yōu)模型。提取擬合函數(shù)的特征，運(yùn)用Kmeans聚類算法對(duì)曲線的特征進(jìn)行聚類，得到三個(gè)不同的類別。通過(guò)對(duì)落后率及落后年份等指標(biāo)結(jié)合實(shí)際分析類別間的差異，最后通過(guò)建立ARMA模型，對(duì)曲線擬合的殘差進(jìn)行建模，使用PitWu方法確定最優(yōu)模型，通過(guò)ARMA模型分析八大經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)域GDP的波動(dòng)的影響因素。關(guān)鍵詞：八大經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)域；GDP曲線擬合；聚類分析；ARMA模型成都學(xué)院學(xué)士學(xué)位論文（設(shè)計(jì)）I目錄緒論..........................

3、........................................................................................................................................1國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀:...........................................................................

4、..........................................................2本文工作內(nèi)容..........................................................................................................................................2意義：.............

5、.........................................................................................................................................31文章涉及理論基礎(chǔ).........................................................................

6、..............................................................31.1曲線擬合...........................................................................................................................................31.2聚類分析...

7、.........................................................................................................................................41.3歐氏距離...........................................................................

8、.................................................................41.4KMEANS..........................................................................................................................................51.5ARM

9、A模型.......................................................................................................................................51.6落后率...........................................................................

10、....................................................................51.7落后年份...........................................................................................................................................61.8P

11、itWu方法..................................................................................................................................62數(shù)據(jù)的收集與整理..........................................................................

12、............................................................72.1數(shù)據(jù)的收集.......................................................................................................................................72.2數(shù)據(jù)的整理.......

13、................................................................................................................................73變量說(shuō)明......................................................................................

14、................................................................84模型建立及求解...........................................................................................................................................94.1數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)處

15、理：....................................................................................................................................94.1.1數(shù)據(jù)的整合及異常值判斷.....................................................................

16、...............................94.1.2數(shù)據(jù)散點(diǎn)圖............................................................................................................................94.2模型的建立及求解：.........................................

17、.............................................................................104.2.1數(shù)據(jù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化...........................................................................................................................104.2.2數(shù)

18、據(jù)擬合..............................................................................................................................104.2.3八大經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)域GDP聚類分析.......................................................................

19、.....................134.4時(shí)間序列檢驗(yàn)..................................................................................................................................194.3使用PITWU方法對(duì)模型殘差建立時(shí)間序列模型:..............................

20、..............................214.3.1對(duì)時(shí)間序列進(jìn)行零均值化...................................................................................................214.3.3求最優(yōu)模型.............................................................

21、.............................................................224.4ARMA模型的建立及模型定階.....................................................................................................225結(jié)論和展望...............................

22、..................................................................................................................265.1結(jié)論...................................................................................................