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1、Whyreadthisrept?Wearebullishontheglobalphotovoltaicproductmarketin201921eassolargetsclosertocompetingwithfossilfuelsonanequalfooting?Chineseproducerssttobenefitastheyincreasetheirdominanceoftheglobalsupplychainwethinkpol

2、icyconcernsareoverdone?WeexplainwhyLongiTongweiarebestpositionedtobenefitThekeymessagesThesolarindustryisnostrangertovolatility.Sharpswingsinproductpricesovercapacityissuesinturnknockoneffectsonstockpriceshavebeencommon.

3、Therootcauseisoftensubsidiesasgovernmentspushfcleanerpower.Germanyledthewaybecamethewld’slargestsolarmarketin2010.Chinasoontookoversolarcapacitygrewfrom19GWin2013to175GWin2018.ButthisledtoovercapacityasupplyglutsoChinaha

4、scutbacksubsidiesplanstophasethemoutcompletelyby2021.ChinaisnotaloneincuttingCeyChan(S1700518100001)HeadofAshareInfrastructureResearchHSBCQianhaiSecuritiesLimitedcey.chan@.cn8675588983404DunWang(S1700519060002)AnalystAsh

5、areInfrastructureHSBCQianhaiSecuritiesLimiteddun.wang@.cnEmployedbyanonUSaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)IncisnotregisteredqualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationssubsidies.OthercountrieslikeBritainSpainhavealsoreducedsubsidies

6、assolargetsclosertocompetingwithfossilfuelsonanequalfooting.InthisreptweexplainwhywehaveabullishoutlookontheChinesesolarcompaniesgiven:1)ourglobalteam’sbullishfecastsfglobalsolarinstallations:2)China’srisingperationofthe

7、globalsolarsupplychain.Whileweexpectcostsinthesupplychaintokeepfallingwebelievetherateofcostdeclineislikelytosubside.Weexpectfuturecostreductionstocomeinthefmofhighercellefficiencylessrawmaterialconsumptioneconomiesofsca

8、leinproduction.Lowersolarcosts–theyhavealreadyfallen92%inthelastdecade–shoulddrivelongtermdemincreasephotovoltaic(PV)installations.Whereourviewdiffersfromconsensus?Webelieveconsensusconcernsaboutpolicyriskareoverdone.Wet

9、hinktherolepolicyincentivesplayinnewsolarinstallationswilldiminishasthemarketmovesclosertogridparitythepointwherealternativeenergieslikesolarmatchthepriceofusingfossilfuels.?Weanalyzeindustrytechnologytrendsseemeuncertai

10、ntyincellmoduletechnologythanfwaferpolysilicon.?Wecomparetheriskstooversupplyofdifferentpartsofthesupplychainconcludethatwafermanufacturingisarelativelysafeplacegivenitsrelativelyconsolidatedmarkethighinvestmentbarriers.

11、Stocks:AssupplychaincostpressureislikelytopersistweexpectcostleaderstostoutwepreferLongi–thecostleaderinwafer–Tongwei–thecostleaderinpolysiliconcellbothratedBuy.Comparedwithotherpartsofthesupplychainwebelievewaferpolysil

12、iconcostleaderswillfinditrelativelyeasiertomaintainscaleadvantagesgiventhehighshareoffixedcostintheircoststructure.WealsohaveBuyratingsonZhonghuanJingsheng.WehaveaReduceratingonFirstAppliedMaterial(FAM)asweseepressureone

13、arnings.Factsfigures11%GlobalnewPVinstallationsCAGRin201820e129GWGlobalnewPVinstallationin2020ecRMB270bnMarketsizeoftheglobalPVsupplychainin2020ec90%China’sshareinglobalwafersupplyin2018c80%China’sshareinglobalcellmodule

14、supplyin2018c50%China’sshareinglobalpolysiliconproductionin201826%TheshareofnewglobalPVinstallationsbycountriesthatachievedsolargridparityin201892%Howmuchsolarcostshavepedinthelastdecade1040%Thisishowmuchsolarcostsneedto

15、fromthecurrentlevelfsolargridparityonaglobalscaleWeexpectthesharetoincreasetoover70%by2021whenChinareachesgridparitymakingpolicyincentivealessimptantfactfsolardemWeexpectacloserlevelizedcostofelectricity(LCOE)gapbetweens

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