j.p. 新興市場-宏觀策略-亞洲新興市場2019年下半年展望準(zhǔn)備迎接一個漫長的夏天-2019.6.21-47頁

1、EconomicResearchJune212019SpecialReptEMAsia2H19outlook:Bracingfalongsummer?Inthe2019yearaheadwehadhighlightedthreekeydriversofthemacroviewslowingDMcapexFednmalizationagrowthslowdowninChina.ThecombinationofthesewouldeaseE

2、MAsiagrowthwhileFednmalizationwouldtightenexternalconditionskeepcentralbanksonhold.?HoweverthealternatescenariostothebaselineviewincpatedasteeperthanexpectedslideincapexadovishtiltamongDMcentralbanksaccompaniedbyamebenig

3、ninflationoutturn.Thisalternateviewhasbroadlyplayedoutin1H19weexpectthatcapextrendswillremaincaptivetotheevolutionofongoingtradeuncertainty.?SubsequentlywehavetrimmedgrowthfecastspenciledinmoaryeasingacrossmostofEMAsia.G

4、iventheirlessopeneconomiesIndiathePhilippinestoalesserdegreeIndonesiashouldseelessofanimpactwhileVietnamcouldactuallybenefitfromtherelocationofproductionchainsfromChina.?The2H19outlookwillagainhingeonthreebroadvariables:

5、globalcapexwhichremainshostagetotheimpactonsentimentfromtradetensionseasinginDMcentralbanksledbytheFedChinaspolicyresponse.?China’sreactiontothetradetensionswillbekeyftheregion.Sofartheresponsehasbeenlikelywillremainadap

6、tivecalibratedtotheevolvingconditions.Inthebaselinescenarioassumingnofurthertariffhikepolicyadjustmentwillbemarginal.Inascenarioofescalationsupptwilllikelybebolsteredinameasuredwayindertopreservepolicyspacefinancialstabi

7、lityimplyingacceptanceofslowergrowth.InsuchascenarioFXadjustmentcouldwellbeusedmeactively.?SubsequentlyChina’sstimuluswillfocusmeoninfrastructurespendingconsumptionsubsidywithahigherUS$CNY.Assuchregionalcurrenciesshoulda

8、lsoweakeninresponsewhilethebeneficiariesofthestimuluswouldmelikelybecommodityproducersthanhighendtechproducers.SinBengOng(65)68821623sinbeng.ong@SinBengOngACsinbeng.ong@JPMganChaseBankN.A.SingapeBranchJonathanCavenaghACj

9、onathan.cavenagh@JPMganChaseBankN.A.SingapeBranchSajjidChinoyACsajjid.chinoy@JPMganChaseBankN.A.MumbaiBranchShaoyuGuoACshaoyu.guo@JPMganChaseBankN.A.HongKongToshiJainACtoshi.jain@JPMganChaseBankN.A.MumbaiBranchCarolLiaoA

10、Ccarol.w.liao@JPMganChaseBankN.A.HongKongArthurLukACarthur.luk@J.P.MganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedGraceNgACgrace.h.ng@JPMganChaseBankN.A.HongKongSeokGilParkACseok.g.park@JPMganChaseBankN.A.SeoulBranchRaisahRasidACrais

11、ah.rasid@JPMganChaseBankN.A.SingapeBranindamSilyaACarindam.silya@JPMganChaseBankN.A.SingapeBranchBenShatilACbenjamin.shatil@JPMganChaseBankN.A.SingapeBranchJisunYangACjisun.yang@JPMganChaseBankN.A.SeoulBranchHaibinZhuACh

12、aibin.zhu@JPMganChaseBankN.A.HongKongContentsMainessay2Toptradesin2H197China10HongKong16India18Indonesia21Kea24Malaysia26Pakistan28Philippines30Singape32SriLanka34Taiwan36Thail39Vietnam41RegionalEconomicOutlook433Economi

13、cResearchEMAsia2H19outlookJune212019JPMganChaseBankN.A.SingapeBranchSinBengOng(65)68821623sinbeng.ong@easingwehavesimilarlypenciledinratecutsacrosstheregion(Figure7).Wenotethatregionalcentralbankreactionfunctionstendtobe

14、idiosyncraticwithsomefocusedmeongrowthinflation–ChinaKeaTaiwanMalaysiaSingapeThailwhileIndonesiatendstobesensitivetoexternalconditions(seehereherehere).WithexternaldemslowinginflationtiltedloweroncommoditiestheFednowexpe

15、ctedtocutthisopensroomfboththecyclicallyinflationsensitiveratesensitivecentralbankstoease.ThinkingbeyondthestatusquoexptsubstitutioncapexChinaThecurrentoutlookfregionalgrowthinflationpolicyispremisedonabaselineofstatusqu

16、oinUSChinarelations.ThisbaselineassumesthattheUStariffsof25%on$200billionofimptsfromChinastaythrough2020asdoChina’sretaliatytariffsonUSimpts.Howeverweacknowledgethatthealternativescenarioofanescalationintradetensionsbeyo

17、ndthebaselinescenarioremainsarisk.Thereareseveralramificationsfromanyescalationthefirstwillbethedegreeofsubstitutabilityoftheexptsthatcouldbetargetedunderthesubsequenttrancheoftariffs.Thesecondwilltheregionalspilloversto

18、growthstemmingfromthehittoglobalcapexalsofromanyoffsettingstimulusfromChina.OntheissueofsubstitutionintheeventofanescalationwenotethatthesubstitutabilityofChina’suntariffedexptscouldbelimited.MachineryequipmentdominateCh

19、ina’sshareofuntariffedproducts—butveryfewothereconomiesappeartosupplytheUSwithsimilarmachinesequipment(Figure8).ThusiftheremainderofUSimptsfromChinaareeventuallysubjecttotariffsotherexptersmaynotbeabletoplugthegapimmedia

20、telyconsideringtherelativelylowdegreeofproductoverlapthesubsequentcosttimepotentiallycomplicatedprocessofrelocatingtechsupplychains.Thisimplieslimitedabilityfothereconomiestogainfurthermarketshareinthenearterm—instarkcon

21、trasttotheexperiencetodate.ThisdynamicifrealizedsuggestspainfuladjustmentstocomeincludingthepotentialfhigherendpricesfconsumersoftariffedUSimptsthusweakerdemfromtheUS.Meoveranescalationoftradetensionscouldalsoacceleratet

22、hediversificationofregionalsupplychainsawayfromChina.Whilethiscouldbepositiveoverthemediumtermtheensuingimpactonsentimentcapexisexpectedtoreducegrowthevenmethanbaseline.20100102030201520162017201820192020%ptcontributiont

23、ototal%3m3msaarUS$termsFigure5:EMAXexptsbydestinationSource:NationalsourcesChinaTotalEMAXG3105051015202530VNTWTHKRSGMYIDHKCNPH%1Q19from4Q18US$termsFigure6:USimptsfromEMAsiaSource:USCensus1.000.750.500.250.00INPHUSIDMYKRT

24、HCNTW2019ytdCurrenttoend2019%p.a.cumulativeFigure7:EMAsiaUS2019moarypolicyfecastSource:J.P.Mganfecasts05101520253035CNEUASEANMXCAJPKRTWVehiclesTextilesOthermanufacturedgoodsMachineryequipmentCommodities%shareoftotal1Q18F