電力行業(yè)2019年度策略都是周期，配火電就是現(xiàn)在

1、目錄1、火電............................................................41.1、2018年回顧..................................................................................................41.2、火電是周期股，上輪相關(guān)周期火電指數(shù)超額回溯..................

2、..................71.3、是巧合還是規(guī)律？—從三個(gè)現(xiàn)象看煤價(jià)拐點(diǎn)..........................................101.4、2019年火電行業(yè)發(fā)電量、利用小時(shí)、煤價(jià)的預(yù)測(cè).................................121.5、投資建議................................................................

3、.....................................172、水電....................................................................................................................182.1、2018年回顧................................................

4、................................................182.2、后退稅時(shí)代，聯(lián)合調(diào)度成為行業(yè)新的趨勢(shì)..............................................202.3、水電行業(yè)的配置價(jià)值：高分紅、防御型標(biāo)的..........................................282.4、投資建議.........................

5、............................................................................313、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示............................................................................................................31圖1、火電行業(yè)指數(shù)&創(chuàng)業(yè)板指數(shù)...........

6、...............................................................4圖2、2018前三季度火電漲跌幅前五....................................................................5圖3、火電行業(yè)盈利水平（億元）......................................................

7、...................5圖4、2018年三季度火電行業(yè)扣非凈利................................................................5圖5、煤價(jià)（元噸）................................................................................................6圖6、火電利用小時(shí)數(shù)

8、（小時(shí)）.............................................................................6圖7、火電整體TTM估值歷年變化情況...............................................................6圖8、火電行業(yè)基金配置&市值占比........................................

9、..............................7圖9、空調(diào)銷量&用電量..........................................................................................7圖10、汽車銷量&用電量...........................................................................

10、.............7圖11、商品房銷售面積&用電量............................................................................8圖12、房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)投資完成額&用電量................................................................8圖13、全社會(huì)用電量&秦皇島動(dòng)力煤價(jià).............

11、...................................................8圖14、秦皇島動(dòng)力煤價(jià)&華能國(guó)際凈利潤(rùn)............................................................9圖15、華能國(guó)際ROE.............................................................................

12、.................9圖16、煤價(jià)&累計(jì)超額收益率................................................................................9圖17、上證綜指&累計(jì)超額收益率........................................................................9圖18、煤炭?jī)r(jià)格（元噸）......

13、..............................................................................10圖19、煤炭?jī)r(jià)格&用電量同比較上月差值（元噸&%）................................11圖20、煤炭?jī)r(jià)格&6大電廠日耗同比（元噸&%）.........................................12圖21、年度社會(huì)用電量增速&結(jié)

14、構(gòu)（億千瓦時(shí)）..............................................12圖22、電力行業(yè)、火電行業(yè)發(fā)電量（萬(wàn)億千瓦）..............................................12圖23、月度社會(huì)用電量增速&結(jié)構(gòu)（億千瓦時(shí)）..............................................13圖24、2018年110月電力消費(fèi)構(gòu)成......

15、.............................................................13圖25、用電量累計(jì)同比（%）..............................................................................14圖26、近10年全社會(huì)用電量（億千瓦時(shí)，%）.........................................

16、.......14圖27、19月火電平均利用小時(shí)數(shù).......................................................................15圖28、18、19年火電平均利用小時(shí)數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)........................................................15圖29、6大發(fā)電集團(tuán)煤炭庫(kù)存及可用天數(shù)........................

17、..................................16圖30、房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)投資趨穩(wěn).................................................................................16圖31、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)增速下行..........................................................................

18、...16圖32、煤炭產(chǎn)量（萬(wàn)噸）.....................................................................................17圖33、煤炭進(jìn)口（萬(wàn)噸）.....................................................................................17報(bào)告正文1、火電1.1、2018年

19、回顧?板塊回顧行情：跑贏創(chuàng)業(yè)板指、上證綜指。2018年至今（11月7日），申萬(wàn)火電行業(yè)指數(shù)累計(jì)下跌16.67%，同期，上證綜指下跌19.59%、創(chuàng)業(yè)板指下跌23.03%；跑贏上證綜指2.92個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，跑贏創(chuàng)業(yè)板指數(shù)6.35個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。圖1、火電行業(yè)指數(shù)&創(chuàng)業(yè)板指數(shù)6000500040003000200010000201020112012201320142015201620172018申萬(wàn)行業(yè)指數(shù)：火電創(chuàng)業(yè)板指上證綜指資料來(lái)源：Wind，整