醫(yī)藥行業(yè)仿制藥超額利潤難延續(xù)，醫(yī)藥行業(yè)格局將重塑

1、PreliminaryresultsfthefirstroundoftheStateJointProcurementfDrugsLinkedwithSpecificVolume(“JointProcurement“)havebeenreleasedwhichshowedstrongsubstitutioneffectofgenericdrugsoniginaloneslargerthanexpectedpricecut.Prelimin

2、aryresultsofJointProcurementin11citieswerereleasedonDec.7th25drugssucceededinattractingpreliminarycidatewinningbidderswhile6failed.Theresultsshowedastrongsubstitutioneffectofgenericdrugsoniginalones22outofthe25cidatesopt

3、edfgenericswhichhadalreadypassedtheQualityConsistencyEvaluationfGenericDrugs(“QCE“).Comparedtothe2017minimumtenderpricesinthe11pilotcitiesbidpricesofthe25drugsdeclinedby52%onaveragebeatingourexpectationmarketconsensus.Ta

4、ble1:PreliminaryResultsofJointProcurementDistributedinShanghai2017MarketShareofWinner2017SampleHospitalPurchases(RMBmn)ChangePrice（RMB）(RMB)NationwideBestPriceMinimumWinnerSpecificationGenericNameAtvastatinCalciumTablets

5、20mg7tabletsJialinPharmaceutical6.6023.2471.60%220917%SinopharmRosuvastatinCalciumTablets10mg28tabletsJingxinPharmaceutical21.8060.5063.97%11037%ShanghaiPharmaClopidogrelHydrogenSulphate75mg7tabletsSalubrisPharmaceutical

6、22.2660.3363.10%239530%ShanghaiPharmaTabletsIrbesartanTablets75mg28tabletsHuahaiPharmaceutical5.6614.9062.01%3651%ShanghaiPharmaAmlodipineBesylateTablets5mg28tabletsJingxinPharmaceutical4.164.609.57%7550%ShanghaiPharmaEn

7、tecavirDispersibleTablets0.5mg28tabletsSinoBiopharm17.36257.0093.25%199644%ShanghaiPharmaEscitalopramOxalateTablets10mg7tabletsKelunPharmaceutical30.9437.5417.58%41610%SinopharmParoxetineHydrochlide20mg20tabletsHuahaiPha

8、rmaceutical33.4040.5717.67%21141%SinopharmTabletsOlanzapineTablets10mg7tabletsHansohPharmaceutical67.5192.6227.11%65360%ShanghaiPharmaCefuroximeAxetilTablets0.25g12tabletsBrilliantPharmaceutical6.1610.3140.25%5553%Shangh

9、aiPharmaRisperidoneTablets1mg60tabletsHuahaiPharmaceutical10.0212.6820.98%1187%SinopharmGefitinibTablets250mg10tabletsAstraZeneca547.002280.0076.01%42089%ShanghaiPharmaFosinoprilSodiumTablets10mg14tabletsBMS11.8037.5068.

10、53%4583%SinopharmIrbesartanHydrochlothiazideTablets（150mg12.5mg）14tabletsHuahaiPharmaceutical15.2643.6565.04%2385%ShanghaiPharmaLisinoprilTablets10mg28tabletsHuahaiPharmaceutical6.4523.9373.05%236%ShanghaiPharmaTenofovir

11、DisoproxilFumarate300mg30tabletsBrilliantPharmaceutical17.72418.8195.77%2414%ShanghaiPharmaTabletsLosartanPotassiumTablets50mg14tabletsHuahaiPharmaceutical14.7029.9050.84%3447%ShanghaiPharmaEnalaprilMaleateTablets10mg16t

12、abletsYangtzeRiverPharmaceutical8.9315.5042.39%1577%SinopharmLevetiracetamTablets250mg30tabletsJingxinPharmaceutical72.0089.4619.52%3280%SinopharmImatinibMesylateTablets100mg60tabletsHansohPharmaceutical623.82843.0026.00

13、%70312%SinopharmMontelukastSodiumTablets10mg5tabletsMinshengBinjiangPharmaceutical19.3831.7839.02%5080%SinopharmMontmillonite3g15bagsSimcerePharmaceutical10.2011.007.27%414%SinopharmPemetrexedfInjection500mgbottleSichuan

14、HuiyuPharmaceutical2776.979281.0070.08%14240%SinopharmPemetrexedfInjection100mgbottleSichuanHuiyuPharmaceutical810.002417.0066.49%0%SinopharmFlurbiprofenAxetilInjection5ml:50mg5bottlesBeijingTide109.75310.7564.68%962100%

15、ShanghaiPharmaDexmedetoineHydrochlideInjection2ml:0.2mg4bottlesYangtzeRiverPharmaceutical532.00748.0028.88%7340%SinopharmAmoxicllinCapsules250mgCSPCPharmaAbtiveAzithromvcinTablets250mgCSPCPharmaAbtiveAzithromvcinTablets5

16、00mgCSPCPharmaAbtiveTramadolHydrochideTablet50mgCSPCPharmaAbtiveAlfacalcidolTablets0.25ugYaopharmaAbtiveCaptoprilTablets25mgChangzhouPharmaceuticalAbtiveAzithromycinfInjection0.5gHainanPolyPharmaceuticalAbtiveSource:Suns

17、hineMedicalProcurementAllinOneMePDBGuotaiJunanInternational.Thepreliminaryresultsrevealeddistinctstrategiesofenterprises:1)newentrantssmallplayers(enterpriseswhosemarketsharewaswellbelow10%befetheJointProcurement)withlar

18、gescaleproductioncapacitysuchasHuahaipharmaceuticalJingxinpharmaceuticalwerethemostactivebiddersthebiggestwinnersthankstosufficientincrementalmarket2)enterprisesthathaveoccupiedmajmarketshareofpopularproductsbefetheJoint

19、ProcurementalsostrivedtowinfinstanceSinoBiopharmAstraZenecaSalubrishavesharplycutproductpricestodefendtheirexistingmarketsharefromnewentrantstocapturehighermarketshare3)otherenterprisesshowedlessradicalmeasures.Mostofthe

20、involvedenterprisesareexpectedtofacenegativeimpactstoprofitabilityatdifferentlevelsexceptnewentrantswithconsiderationto1)theincreaseinsalesvolumehardlyaffectingtheadverseeffectonprofitabilitytriggeredbypricediscountfprev

21、iousmajplayersifbidsarewon2)cidatesthatfailedthebidaswellasplayerswhichhadnot17December2018SectReptHealthCareSect醫(yī)藥行業(yè)ROEROACompanyTable2:PeersComparisonoftheHealthCareIndustryDistributsRetailersHKListed:Sinopharm1099HKHK

22、D32.909103714.914.112.411.02.22.01.81.50.915.53.97.87.46.2ChinaResourcesPharma3320HKHKD10.926862719.916.514.112.31.61.21.11.00.98.83.78.67.46.6ShanghaiPharmaH2607HKHKD17.345424811.510.29.28.31.11.11.01.00.911.44.211.78.5

23、7.4SimpleAverage15.413.611.910.51.61.51.31.20.911.93.99.47.76.7WeightedAverage15.613.912.110.71.71.51.41.20.912.33.99.07.76.7MainlListed:ShanghaiPharmaA601607CHCNY17.605424813.411.810.99.71.41.31.21.11.111.14.611.78.17.1

24、HuadongMedicine000963CHCNY27.224492922.318.014.511.94.74.03.42.80.622.912.619.512.59.9JointownPharma600998CHCNY14.973181817.220.917.214.21.91.51.41.30.86.83.317.814.512.1ChinaNationalMed600511CHCNY23.652046415.3n.a.n.a.n

25、.a.2.21.91.71.5n.a.13.85.710.5n.a.n.a.RealcanPharma002589CHCNY8.031367712.09.88.06.41.51.31.21.00.312.94.012.27.36.0GXLiuzhouPharma603368CHCNY26.68782417.213.210.58.62.01.71.51.30.413.35.815.7n.a.n.a.NanjingPharma600713C

26、HCNY4.43522316.6n.a.n.a.n.a.1.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.13.8n.a.n.a.SinopharmAccd000028CHCNY43.291980217.515.513.912.22.01.81.61.41.111.44.710.58.87.7ZhejiangHuatong002758CHCNY7.41176137.1n.a.n.a.n.a.2.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.

27、a.n.a.28.4n.a.n.a.ZhejiangZhenyuan000705CHCNY6.12231534.0n.a.n.a.n.a.1.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.22.1n.a.n.a.BeijingTongrentang600085CHCNY30.014658940.437.133.330.24.94.54.13.73.111.37.319.215.814.1TaslyPharma600535CHCNY1

28、9.583352621.618.516.013.63.42.82.52.21.016.87.319.012.010.9YNHongxiangYixintang002727CHCNY22.201426827.323.318.615.13.43.12.72.30.813.26.317.5n.a.n.a.LaobaixingPharmacy603883CHCNY56.741830141.135.828.823.35.55.04.53.81.2

29、14.16.131.1n.a.n.a.ChinaMeheco600056CHCNY12.981569910.78.77.46.21.81.51.31.10.417.45.812.4n.a.n.a.SimpleAverage22.919.316.313.82.72.52.22.01.013.76.117.411.39.7WeightedAverage22.320.417.515.03.02.72.42.11.213.86.616.711.

30、810.1GloabalListed:MckessonCpMCKUSUSD122.861875405.4383.99.18.72.32.52.42.10.00.60.14.820.77.7CardinalHealthIncCAHUSUSD52.3912195312.963.910.59.92.42.72.52.40.14.00.610.019.37.9AmerisourcebergenCpABCUSUSD81.8913559549.01

31、0.811.911.08.66.05.44.7n.a.66.44.512.811.17.9HenryScheinIncHSICUSUSD83.799979232.420.518.717.44.63.63.12.72.220.17.812.414.212.4PattersonCosIncPDCOUSUSD22.741687012.610.515.814.61.61.51.41.4n.a.14.15.814.210.511.4WBAWBAU

32、SUSD82.3260829221.716.212.611.73.13.03.23.00.718.87.513.310.010.0CelesioCLS1GREUR26.0046673n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2.82.8n.a.n.a.n.a.(15.9)(4.3)15.440.9n.a.MedipalHoldingsCp7459JPJPY2545.004282319.916.517.616.91.31.21.11.1n.a.7.

33、52.26.27.28.7AlfresaHoldingsCp2784JPJPY3070.004964821.518.718.517.31.71.51.41.34.68.62.75.86.210.1SuzukenCoLtd9987JPJPY6130.004359228.330.926.426.71.51.41.41.43.44.71.67.15.912.3AustralianPharmaAPIAUAUD1.60439814.916.313

34、.612.91.41.51.51.41.19.03.36.39.46.2SimpleAverage21.958.815.514.72.92.52.32.21.712.52.99.814.19.5WeightedAverage22.273.613.212.43.43.13.02.80.917.34.611.113.49.5PharmaceuticalsHKListed:CSPCPharma1093HKHKD11.547199025.419

35、.815.512.44.74.03.42.80.621.815.622.512.59.6SihuanPharma460HKHKD1.781685910.19.98.98.61.31.21.11.01.312.310.49.97.26.4SinoBiopharm1177HKHKD5.216584323.119.416.514.25.23.93.22.71.026.814.822.610.38.1LuyePharma2186HKHKD5.3

36、41748815.411.810.09.12.11.81.51.30.716.510.411.99.88.5LivzonPharmaH1513HKHKD23.90205413.313.612.010.71.31.31.21.10.99.87.017.28.57.1HECH1558HKHKD28.001265717.012.811.69.83.83.12.72.20.826.417.711.6n.a.n.a.3SbioInc1530HKH

37、KD10.482665824.520.716.213.43.02.82.42.00.714.58.422.514.111.0FosunPharmaH2196HKHKD23.707108916.217.915.012.91.91.81.71.60.810.64.331.023.219.8FosunInt.656HKHKD12.381058117.06.25.65.00.90.80.70.60.514.02.87.08.77.8SSYGro

38、up2005HKHKD6.381922927.320.416.413.45.34.53.83.10.723.514.713.6n.a.n.a.UnitedLab.3933HKHKD4.49736277.310.78.47.11.11.11.00.90.410.14.011.84.83.7XinhuaPharmaH719HKHKD3.7336809.3n.a.n.a.n.a.0.8n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.12.9n

39、.a.n.a.ChinaGrPharma512HKHKD3.651144217.813.09.67.23.72.51.81.30.320.1n.a.11.3n.a.n.a.GZBYSPharma874HKHKD30.006546620.512.514.212.62.21.91.81.6n.a.16.29.69.518.914.517A18F19F18F18F17A18F19F20F17A18F19F20FEVEBITDA(%)(%).P