水電工程投資決策綜合評價(jià)研究.pdf

1、天津大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文水電工程投資決策綜合評價(jià)研究姓名：楊業(yè)申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：水利水電工程指導(dǎo)教師：李振富20020601ABSTRACTDuringtheinvestmentdecisionofwaterpowerprojects，manyfactorshavetobeconsideredincludingenvironmentalsocialandeconomicimpactsSotheassessmentoftheinvest

2、mentdecisionisvirtuallythemultifactormultiobjectandmdticharactercomprehensiveassessmentFurthermoretheassessmentofteninvolvesinmanyuncertainandimprecisefactorsthatitiSdifticdttodealwithbvroutineapproachesSothispaperdiscus

3、sesanewapproachcomprehensiveassessmemInthispaperallindexsystemofcomprehensiveassessmentisproposedforwaterconservancyprojectsafter卸山y(tǒng)zingthecharacteristicsofwaterresourceprojectsandcomprehensiveassessmentThetheoriesandmet

4、hodsforcalculatingthevaluesoftheindexesandtheirweightsatealSOpresentedOnthebasisofthis，thegeneralhierarchicalstructureoftheindexsystemofcomprehensivewaterpowerprojectinvestmentassessmentiSputforward111entheauthorformulat

5、estwomodels：fuzzyassessmentmodelbasedonfuzzytheoryandgreysituationdecisionmodelongreysystemtheoryFinallythesetwomodelsa托appliedtothesyntheticaloptimizationofthehydroelectricstationinvestmentprograms111emainmseatchresults

6、inthispaperarcasfollows：1Whcncalculatingthevaluesoftheweighsofindexestheauthornotonlytakesintoaccount“Subjectiveweight’whichreflectsthedegreeofattentiondecisionmakerpaytotheindexes，butalso‘‘Impersonalweight“whichreflects

7、theimportanceoftheindexesinthedecision11他indexesweightseducedbythemethodaremorescientificandrational2For“Subjectiveweight”whichiscalculatedbyAHPfuzzymathematicsisappliedtotraditionalA唧andanewreformativeA腫iSpresentednlere

8、formativeAHPcailsimplifycalculatingOntheotherhandthetheoryofinformationentropyisappliedtocalculate“Impersonalweight’sothattheattificialfactorsarereducedandtheinformationthatindexestransmittodecisionmakersistaken砌advantag

9、eof3Byusingthemethodof“MakeClearIndex矗lz巧’，thesubjectiondegreeofeveryindextothecommentsetofprojectsisgainedThemethodavoidsthedisadvantageofthefuzzyassessmentthatthechoiceofindexsubjectionfunctionsiScomplicatedandrandomFr

10、omthispaperitisprovedthatthemethodissimpleandeffective4FuzzyassessmentmodelandgreysituationdecisionmodelateappliedtothesyntheticaloptimizationofthehydroelectricstationsacorporationintendstoinvestinAndareasonableresultise

11、duced5ThemethodofweightsensitivityanalysisisusedtochoosethebestprojectBythismethodweCRllseethechangetrendoftheoptimumproject謝tlltheweightchangeKeywords：waterpowerprojectinvestmentdecision，comprehensiveassessment，fuzzy，an