產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)、產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移和各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)與波動(dòng).pdf

1、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)、產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移和各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)與波動(dòng)摘要吐業(yè)革命以來(lái)，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的此起彼伏己經(jīng)成為現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的一t征，二戰(zhàn)以后，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)高增長(zhǎng)區(qū)域更是發(fā)生了從美國(guó)向日本繼而向“四小龍”、東盟和中國(guó)的轉(zhuǎn)移。作為“國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)不平衡及增長(zhǎng)中心跨地區(qū)轉(zhuǎn)移”課題的子部分，本文任務(wù)即是從產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷和產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移角度探究上述現(xiàn)象的內(nèi)在原因。研究角度約束使本文對(duì)封閉環(huán)境下經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的邏輯進(jìn)程較為關(guān)注。研究認(rèn)為正是由于橫截面上各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的質(zhì)態(tài)差異以及這種差異

2、的動(dòng)態(tài)改變才導(dǎo)致世界經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)此起彼伏增長(zhǎng)，以此為核心，開放環(huán)境下各國(guó)以技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)移、產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移、國(guó)際貿(mào)易、國(guó)際直接投資等形式體現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)交流則對(duì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)高增長(zhǎng)中心轉(zhuǎn)移起了助推作用。利用上述結(jié)論聯(lián)合90年代的新經(jīng)濟(jì)興起，本文最后也對(duì)典型地區(qū)的增長(zhǎng)前景作了簡(jiǎn)要預(yù)期。本文工作是課題整體研究的一部分，除此之外，從技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)移角度對(duì)同命題的研究、從國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)特別是國(guó)際直接投資角度對(duì)同命題的研究、從國(guó)際貿(mào)易角度對(duì)同命題的研究、從制度及非經(jīng)濟(jì)因素角度對(duì)同命題的

3、研究已經(jīng)另外展開擴(kuò)本文研究偏重實(shí)證分析。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的區(qū)域、雁行特征乃至產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)、產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移規(guī)律經(jīng)常被學(xué)界經(jīng)驗(yàn)描述，但是基于科學(xué)數(shù)據(jù)的詳盡實(shí)證卻一直缺乏，受啟發(fā)于西方經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)界對(duì)索洛剩余的論爭(zhēng)及其成就的理論學(xué)派，論文力圖把原先學(xué)界基于直觀體驗(yàn)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)描述加以理論固定并以此填補(bǔ)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究的空白。本論文研究的主要內(nèi)容包括:第二章歸納了世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的區(qū)域性:第三章實(shí)證了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與波動(dòng)的關(guān)聯(lián)第四章給出了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)邏輯演進(jìn)過(guò)程的理論解第

4、五章說(shuō)明了產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移與后起國(guó)工業(yè)化的聯(lián)系第六章基于傳統(tǒng)工業(yè)化和新經(jīng)濟(jì)共同影響預(yù)測(cè)了世界典型地區(qū)的增長(zhǎng)前景。戰(zhàn)后各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展紛繁而復(fù)雜，本文第二章歸納了世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的區(qū)域特征。由于各國(guó)國(guó)際可比增長(zhǎng)數(shù)據(jù)不易得，學(xué)界以往只能經(jīng)驗(yàn)定義全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的區(qū)域性，本文認(rèn)為這種經(jīng)驗(yàn)描述于經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究方法而言并不嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)。由此本文給出戰(zhàn)后58個(gè)國(guó)家的國(guó)際可比經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率序列并以此為樣本利用相關(guān)性分析歸納戰(zhàn)后世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的區(qū)域特征。本文基于可比數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)分析的現(xiàn)象歸納比

5、先前的經(jīng)驗(yàn)定義更為科學(xué)和有說(shuō)服力，這項(xiàng)工作也是對(duì)已有理論研究的空白填補(bǔ)?；貧w分析表明，戰(zhàn)后具有典型意義的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模式包括以下地區(qū):西方發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家、拉美、“四小龍”、東盟、中國(guó)。以此為基礎(chǔ)，本文還選擇了用于進(jìn)一步深入研究的樣本國(guó)家:美國(guó)、英國(guó)、德國(guó)、日本、墨西哥、韓國(guó)、泰國(guó)、中國(guó)。論文第三章實(shí)證分析了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與波動(dòng)的關(guān)聯(lián)并且使用了細(xì)分產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)數(shù)據(jù)。經(jīng)典產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)理論僅研究經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)高度與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高度的關(guān)聯(lián)但卻不涉及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速率

6、與波動(dòng)，其研究方法也局限于三大產(chǎn)業(yè)分類和粗略的經(jīng)驗(yàn)歸納經(jīng)典增長(zhǎng)理論則注ECONOMICSTRUCTUREUPGRADEINDUSTRYTRANSFERANDTHEGROWTHFLUCTUATIONOFWORLDECONOMYABSTRACTThefluctuationofworldeconomyhasbeenagreatcharacteristicofmoderneconomicgrowthsinceIndustrialRevoluti

7、on.AfterWorldWarIItheworldhighgrowthregionhaschangedfromUnitedStatestoJapanAsianNIEsASEAN4andChina.Asapartialworkofproject“UnequalGrowthofWorldEconomyandtheTransferofWorldHighGrowthRegion“thisdissertationsmissionistofind

8、thecausesresultinthatphenomenonbytheviewpointofeconomicstructureupgradeandindustrytransfer.Undertherestrictionofthatmissiontheauthorpaysmoreatentiononthelogicalprocessofeconomicgrowthinaclosedenvironment.Thisp即errevealst

9、hatdiferenceingrowthaltitudeandthechangeofthatdiferenceisthemainreasonforworldeconomyfluctuation.Changeofdiferenceingrowthaltituderesultsinmovingofworldhighgrowthregionfurthermorethealternatinginterferesamongcountriesbeh

10、avesastechnologytransferindustrytransferinternationaltradeandFDIwouldpromotethatprocess.CombinedtheconclusionswegetaboveandtheemergingofNewEconomytheauthoralsoforecastsgrowthfutureofworldThispapersworkinclinestoempirical

11、study.Manycharacteristicsofworldeconomicgrowthareoftendescribeddirectlybyeconomistsasamaterofcourseandtheirperfectempiricalstudiesbasedonreliabledatausuallyseldomgiven.Thesecharacteristicsincluderegionalsimilarityofworld

12、economicgrowthgoosefl戶ngcatchinguppaternlogicalprocessineconomicstructureupgradeprocessofindustrytransferetc.InspiredbydiscussionsofSolowSurplusandthediferentschoolsemergingfromthattheauthorwantstobringoutmanyempiricalst

13、udiesforrecoveringtheshortcomingsmentionedaboveandcontributestothelecture.AstheconfusionofworldeconomicgrowthChapterTwogivesoutitsregionalsimilarityafterWorldWar11Becauseofnoaccesstocountriescomparablegrowthdataformerthe

14、oristshadtodefineworldtypicalgrowthmodelsbytheirintuitiveimpressions.Itisnotarigorouswayineconomicsresearch.Forthisreasonthepaperchooses58typicalcountriescomparablegrowthratestoconcludethenregioncharacteristic.Theauthorb

15、elievesthatbasedoncomparabledataandstatisticalanalysistheconclusionofregionalsimilarityaboutworldeconomicgrowthshouldbemorereliable.Theregressionresultstellusthatthereareseveraltypicalgrowthmodelsontheworld:developedcoun

16、triesLatinAmericancountriesAsianNIEsASEAN4andChina.Consideringthetypicalityofcountry8samplecountriesarechosenforfurtherstudy:UnitedStatesUnitedKingdomGermanyJ叩anMexicoSouthKoreaThailandandChina.Theclassicalstudiesofecono

17、micstructuregrowththeoryandbusinesscycleseldomconsiderrelationshipsamonggrowthfluctuationandstructureupgrade.Theauthorfindthatchangeofgrowthregimecanleadtofluctuationingrowthrateevenwhenthecountryisdevelopedincloseenviro