電力需求和負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)研究——以上海及滬南地區(qū)情形為例.pdf

1、上海交通大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文電力需求和負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)研究——以上海及滬南地區(qū)情形為例姓名：史軍申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：碩士專業(yè)：工商管理指導(dǎo)教師：季建華20040111上海交通大學(xué)MBA學(xué)位論文電力需求和負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)研究~II~ABSTRACTDevelopmentsofelectricpowermarketinggreatlychangedthemanagingfunctionsimplicationsonelectricpowerenterprises.E

2、lectricpowerdemloadfecastingisthepremisesafeguardfsteadyeconomicaloperationofpowersystemitisalsothebasisofscheduleplansupplyplanbusinessplanunderthemarketcircumstances.Thedifferencefrommonopolizationcompetitionientedmana

3、gementadvancedhighercriteriademsonelectricpowersystem.Itisofgreatsignificancehowtoscientificallyanalyzefecastregionalpowerdemloadbasedonwhichfmulatefeasiblepowerdevelopmentplanensurenmalproductionlivingefficientlyreduceo

4、perationalcostofelectricpowerkeepincreasetheeconomicsocialprofitsensurestablebeneficialdevelopmentofregionaleconomy.Ithasbecomeoneofthemainresearchtopicsfpowerenterprisemanagementthathowtomakegooduseofexistingdataadaptsc

5、ientificfecastingtheiesapproachesbuildcrespondingfecastingmodelimprovefecastingaccuracy.ThisthesiswillgiveafurtherinvestigationofthefundamentalproblemsofpowerdemloadfecastingbasingonthecasesofShanghaiitssouthernareaafurt

6、herstudyonfecastingmethodsofpowerdemloadpromoteapplicationsofpowerdemloadfecasting.Theresearchresultsinthethesismainlyincludethefollowingfivesections:1.Examinethefundamentalproblemsofpowerdemloadfecasting.Themeaningofpow

7、erdemloadfecastingarediscussed.InadditionAnalyzeseveralfactsinfluencingpowerdemloadpointoutthepresentprobleminthepowerdemfecasting.2.Fundamentalmethodsofpowerdemloadfecastingareresearched.Conventionaladvancedmethodsofpow

8、erdemanalysispredictionareintroduced.Eightmethodsofloadfecastingwhicharepresentlywidelyappliedaresystematicallystudied.Onthebasisofdiscussingthehigherdemfloadfecastingtheloadfecastingoptimizedcombinationmethodispaidmeemp

9、hasiswhichincludesequalweightfecastingANOVACovarianceoptimumseekingfecastingregressioncombinationfecastingmodelgroupsoptimumseekingfecasting.3.Thedesignimplementationofelectricpowerloadfecastingsystemarestudied.Theframeo