火電企業(yè)燃煤價格與電力需求分析及預測實證研究.pdf

1、對外經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學碩士學位論文火電企業(yè)燃煤價格與電力需求分析及預測實證研究姓名：李學勃申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟學指導教師：王朝培20070401對外經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學頌I論丘=Nowadays，inChinascompositionofenergy，thethermalpowertakesupthepredominantpositionCurrentlysocietyhasahigIIdemandforelectricpowerButa

2、sthemainfuelofthethermalpowerfactorythereistightsupplyofcoalThecostoffuelforthethermalpowercompaniesaccountsfor75％ofthetotal，whichconstitutesthecorecostofthepowerstationsUndertheenvironmentofcompetitionandcoalpricemarket

3、ization，thethermalpowercompaniesshouldadoptthewaywhichincludesbothpredictionandplanninginsteadofonlyplanningThisisalsothesanleforpurchasingofcoalForcompaniesfacinguptodifferentcondition，shouldmakepredictionfrombothquanti

4、tativeandqualitativeanalysis，drawupreasonablepurchasingstrategyandmakeeffectivestockmanagementWenoticethatSPSShasgreatadvantageinthestatisticalanalysisofdemandandpredictionSothatwecanofferhclpcompaniestogetcompetitiveadv

5、antage，reducerisk，savecostandincreasetheeconomicbenefit，gethigherprofitThispaperusesSPSSsoftwaretomaketimeseriesanalysis，includingtimetrendextrapolation，exponentialsmoothingandautegression，topredicttheelectricpowermarket

6、demandandpriceofthecoalWecangetscientificconclusionthroughsettingupmodelandtestAtthesametime，thisstudyalsoisofgreatpositiveimportanceandpracticalvalueforbothspecificthermalpowercompanyandotherrelatedcompaniestomakesimila