層次分析法在高速公路工程承包風(fēng)險管理中的應(yīng)用.pdf

1、學(xué)號或申請?zhí)柮芗夃嵵荽髮W(xué)碩士學(xué)位淪文論文題目：作者姓名：學(xué)科門類：專、Ik名稱：導(dǎo)師姓名、職稱：層次分析法在高速公路工程承包風(fēng)險管理中的應(yīng)用王治強(qiáng)管理學(xué)工向管珥碩士劉偉副教授二oo五年五月AbstractnleinvestmentofsuperhighwayincreasessteadilyalongwiththerapideconomicgrowthinChinaCompetitionamongcontractorsfor山eproj

2、ectengineeringtendstobemoresevereAsaresult，thecontactors’riskrisesduringthewholeprocessfrombidingforandcompletingtheproject耶1eintemalandexternalfactorswhichaffecttheprojectandthecontractorschangecontinuouslyduringthewhol

3、eprocessThereforethecontractorshavetoimprovetheircapabilitiestoidentifymanageandcontroltherisksSOastoenhanceprojectmanagementButduetolackingofoperationalknowledgeandtheassessmentmethods，thefeasibleandoperationalriskmanag

4、ementapproachesarenotavailableneengineeringcontractorsendwithpassiveacceptancewimthepoliciestheinsurancecompaniesprovideorgivingupbidding，orsimplysub—contactingouttheengineeringcontracts，whichresultinlosingprofitableproj

5、ectengineeringorbearingexcessiverisksIdentificationandassessmentofriskisfundamentalforriskmanagementofsuperhighwayengineeringItistroublesomeforcontractorstoidentifythedegreeofseveralriskfactors，becauseofmulti—factorandun

6、certaintyinvolvedintheprojectengineeringHowtouseallkindsofanalyticmethodsespeciallythemethodofquantitativeanalysistoprocessandsortandanalyzelotsofinformationordata，howtocompareandsingleouttheriskelementsinthecomplexproce

7、dureofcontracting，thesetwopointsareurgentfortheriskmanagementIntheprocessofidentificationandassessmentofcontractingrisk，fewhistoricdataareavailableforregressionanalysisItisonlypossibletousetheinvestigationofspecialisttod

8、oquantitativeanalysisSoitisdifficulttogetasatisfiedresultwhenthematterconcernsmulti—indicatorsandmulti—factorsBycomparingtherecognitionandassessmentofrisk，itisarguedthatAnalyticofhierarchyprocessCanusetheknowledgeofautho

9、ritativeexperiencetoinstallthesystemofindexThiswaytheaccordofauthoritativeopinionsCanbejudgedandthequantityanalysisCanbecombinedwithqualitativeanalysisSotheshortcomingoftheauthoritativeinvestigationcanbecompensated，furth

10、ermore，thequantitativeconnectionofriskfactorsCanberesultedfromthemathematicalperceptionInaword，analytieofhierarchyprocessprovidesascientificandpracticalthinkingfortheriskassessmentofmultigoalsThispaperanalysesthewholepro

11、cessofcontractingsuperhighwayengineeringanddeterminesitslogicalconnectionAnalyticofhierarchyprocessisusedcorrectlytecognizeandassesstheriskfactorsThisprovidesapracticalandefficientmeanforcontractorstomakeabiddefinethedeg

12、reeofriskfactorsandsortallkindsofmanagement111eNo18ofsuperhighwayfromNangYangtoDengZhouisusedtoillustratetheapproachthepaperdiscussesRiskfactorswhicharepossiblyfacedarelistedThislaidthefoundationforustodealwithriskandimp