國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)與貿(mào)易+外文翻譯

1、<p>　　中文5233字，2890單詞</p><p>　　本科畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文）</p><p>　　外文參考文獻(xiàn)譯文及原文</p><p>　　系 部 外語外貿(mào)學(xué)部 </p><p>　　專 業(yè) 國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)與貿(mào)易 </p><p>　　年 級(jí)

2、 </p><p>　　班級(jí)名稱 08國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)與貿(mào)易3班 </p><p>　　學(xué) 號(hào) </p><p>　　學(xué)生姓名 </p><p>　　指導(dǎo)教師 </p&

3、gt;<p>　　2012 年 4月 </p><p><b>　　目 錄</b></p><p>　　1 外文文獻(xiàn)圖片………………………………………………………………………………1</p><p>　　2 外文文獻(xiàn)譯文………………………………………………………………………………6</p><p>

4、　　3外文文獻(xiàn)原文………………………………………………………………………………12</p><p><b>　　外文文獻(xiàn)譯文</b></p><p><b>　　總結(jié)：</b></p><p>　　在最近的這幾年來，貿(mào)易自由化對(duì)于國(guó)內(nèi)的影響一直受到嚴(yán)密的監(jiān)控。貿(mào)易自由化和全球化的其它方面被指責(zé)成造成美國(guó)的收入不均和歐洲的失

5、業(yè)率的根本原因。問題的關(guān)鍵還在于低工資發(fā)展中國(guó)家的貿(mào)易。雖然經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家一直都在研究這個(gè)問題,但是卻并沒有找到明確的答案。本文探討了這種模棱兩可的問題的一些原因。內(nèi)生性和同時(shí)性雖然可以產(chǎn)生主要的問題，但這引起業(yè)內(nèi)人士指責(zé)，還是應(yīng)該應(yīng)該適當(dāng)?shù)貧w因于其他因素的發(fā)展。但是即使僅僅針對(duì)貿(mào)易自身，它也有不能確定的影響。這只是在最簡(jiǎn)單的赫克歇爾-俄林理論下,批評(píng)者對(duì)貿(mào)易自由化可以預(yù)測(cè)的明確結(jié)果。</p><p><b>

6、;　　1介紹</b></p><p>　　在最近幾年來，貿(mào)易和經(jīng)濟(jì)開放一直在增長(zhǎng),于是各個(gè)利益集團(tuán)的獲利影響一直被爭(zhēng)論。低技能工人的工資和薪水在因?yàn)槿蚧赡芤鸬臐撛诤蠊?，受到特別的關(guān)注。由于工業(yè)化國(guó)家與發(fā)展中低薪水國(guó)家的貿(mào)易份額得到增加，導(dǎo)致這場(chǎng)爭(zhēng)論已經(jīng)愈演愈烈。在美國(guó)以及歐洲，人們對(duì)于工作，工資和生活標(biāo)準(zhǔn)時(shí)刻處于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)當(dāng)中而感到恐懼的情況普遍存在，尤其是在和那些從底薪國(guó)家來的工人直接與直接競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的地

7、區(qū)尤為嚴(yán)重。</p><p>　　在經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家中，爭(zhēng)論集中在美國(guó)收入顯著不平等的興起和歐洲的失業(yè)率持續(xù)增加引起的貿(mào)易和技術(shù)變革的相對(duì)貢獻(xiàn)。貿(mào)易經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們傾向于應(yīng)該減少在這些發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的交易規(guī)則，而大量的勞動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家則抱持著相反的意見。盡管這場(chǎng)爭(zhēng)論遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)沒有解決爭(zhēng)端,但是它在理論和實(shí)證兩個(gè)方面揭示了極其復(fù)雜的問題。</p><p>　　第二節(jié)列出了基本問題以及在所有商品自由流通的基礎(chǔ)上交易的兩個(gè)產(chǎn)

8、品-三個(gè)要素模型對(duì)工資和就業(yè)影響的后果。第三節(jié)部分認(rèn)為最終產(chǎn)品就是非流通股，但它的一些部件和組件可以流通，從而可以從境外進(jìn)行采購。境外采購可能涉及海上生產(chǎn)和對(duì)外直接投資。第四節(jié)探討了資本流動(dòng)的影響。第五部分在講述潛在的失業(yè)問題。第六節(jié)提供了一些結(jié)論性的意見。</p><p>　　2海外采購和相對(duì)工資</p><p>　　傳統(tǒng)貿(mào)易理論的奠基石之一是在因素比例在測(cè)定專業(yè)化和貿(mào)易時(shí)的作用?？鐕?guó)的

9、要素稟賦的多樣性和跨產(chǎn)品的因素強(qiáng)度在比較優(yōu)勢(shì)的評(píng)定中占有很重要的位置。當(dāng)這些原則被應(yīng)用在同水平的產(chǎn)品時(shí)，它很容易證明，貿(mào)易自由化在被利用于生產(chǎn)與進(jìn)口貨品對(duì)抗的貨物時(shí)將減少要素的相對(duì)回報(bào)。在當(dāng)今的發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的進(jìn)口品競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的商品在往往是相對(duì)密集性非技能和半技能勞動(dòng)。如果貿(mào)易自由化增加了高勞力低工資國(guó)家的進(jìn)口品流入國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)的數(shù)量，那么斯托爾珀 薩繆爾森定理可以預(yù)測(cè)工作和工資水平將會(huì)受到來自進(jìn)口貨物行業(yè)壓力。壓力還會(huì)蔓延到經(jīng)濟(jì)的其他領(lǐng)域。里默理論(

10、1998)是一個(gè)解決這個(gè)問題的極好的參考應(yīng)用方法。</p><p>　　然而，產(chǎn)品進(jìn)入國(guó)際貿(mào)易市場(chǎng)，特別是非常復(fù)雜的商品，由許多部件和組件組成的商品。在過去，生產(chǎn)這樣的產(chǎn)品的方式是，無論這個(gè)產(chǎn)品的組成有多少，都是由同一個(gè)國(guó)家全部生產(chǎn)完成。當(dāng)然，外購零部件是被廣泛使用，但它本質(zhì)上還是更傾向于國(guó)內(nèi)化，主要是因?yàn)樵谂鋫涞某杀炯眲∩仙龝r(shí)，外包才被推出國(guó)界。因此出現(xiàn)了一種趨勢(shì)，就是使產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)超過了國(guó)界可能使得它被貼上“奧地

11、利制造”或“美國(guó)制造”的標(biāo)簽。</p><p>　　近年來，交通運(yùn)輸和通信技術(shù)的重大創(chuàng)新成果在使跨境合作所需要的成本大幅降低，也使海外設(shè)廠和生產(chǎn)這種模式獲得了極度迅速的成長(zhǎng)。不僅貿(mào)易自由化對(duì)這種發(fā)展提供了幫助，而且世界各地的直接投資流動(dòng)和人才，信息以及技術(shù)流而導(dǎo)致的更開放的經(jīng)濟(jì)也使這種發(fā)展得到提升。</p><p>　　因此，許多產(chǎn)品迅速失去他們國(guó)產(chǎn)的身份因?yàn)榭鐕?guó)生產(chǎn)和其他從海外采購和制造

12、的零件、部件和組裝。從看他們決定到哪里去采購、生產(chǎn)、裝配，廠商最關(guān)注的就是協(xié)調(diào)以及產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)成本。不難發(fā)現(xiàn)在在產(chǎn)品零部件和組裝過程中，要素稟賦和要素密集度在國(guó)家之間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中扮演了一個(gè)重要的角色。</p><p>　　要素密集度往往會(huì)使一個(gè)復(fù)雜的生產(chǎn)過程中的構(gòu)成活動(dòng)變得不經(jīng)相同。正如傳統(tǒng)貿(mào)易理論所強(qiáng)調(diào)的，最終產(chǎn)品的因素強(qiáng)度是相關(guān)的組件因子強(qiáng)度的加權(quán)平均。在組件級(jí)別的評(píng)價(jià)比較優(yōu)勢(shì)，是不是從最終產(chǎn)品這樣做非常不同。從要

13、素稟賦理論的觀點(diǎn)來看，資源豐富高工資的國(guó)家會(huì)把大多數(shù)要求較高的資本技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品部件給大量的熟手技工制造，要求較低產(chǎn)品和部件則會(huì)往半技能或非技能勞動(dòng)力投入更多。</p><p>　　這意味著這個(gè)國(guó)家可以提高這個(gè)最終產(chǎn)品的市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，通過把這個(gè)產(chǎn)品的組件外包到勞動(dòng)密集型低薪水國(guó)家。在圖一顯示了這個(gè)想法的重點(diǎn)。1.這里有兩種產(chǎn)品，X和Y，以及其他三個(gè)因素，資本(K)，技能勞動(dòng)力(H)，技能勞動(dòng)力是由h表現(xiàn)的，和普通勞

14、動(dòng)力(L)組成的，而普通勞動(dòng)力是由w表現(xiàn)的?，F(xiàn)在假設(shè)資金是固定的并且在特定的區(qū)域內(nèi)，而這兩種類型的勞動(dòng)力在部門之間都是完全自由移動(dòng)的。這兩種產(chǎn)品也假設(shè)是完全自由交易的。在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和發(fā)展中國(guó)家之間的貿(mào)易，產(chǎn)品X是高工資國(guó)家的進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品和產(chǎn)品Y是它的出口產(chǎn)品。</p><p>　　曲線Xo 和Yo分別代表這兩種產(chǎn)品的單位價(jià)值的等產(chǎn)量線。在斯托爾帕 - 薩繆爾森的框架里，貿(mào)易自由化所帶來的X的價(jià)格下降，畫出位移后的X-等

15、產(chǎn)量線出來。隨后的生產(chǎn)要素價(jià)格的調(diào)整，以這種商品相對(duì)價(jià)格的變化，得出一個(gè)平坦的W / H比值，與新的X等產(chǎn)量線相切（未畫出）和最初的Y-等產(chǎn)量線。這場(chǎng)爭(zhēng)論的核心就是非技能勞動(dòng)力的地位的削弱。</p><p>　　如果產(chǎn)品X的生產(chǎn)技術(shù)得到改進(jìn)，它將移動(dòng)X-等產(chǎn)量線向內(nèi)移動(dòng)(未顯示),使要素價(jià)格率更陡，從而提高非技能勞動(dòng)力的相對(duì)位置。因此，如果貿(mào)易自由化與技術(shù)改革在與進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的行業(yè)同時(shí)進(jìn)行，非技能勞動(dòng)力的相對(duì)地位

16、可能改善，惡化或保持不變。</p><p>　　在Y-區(qū)域的技術(shù)進(jìn)步使Y-等產(chǎn)量線向內(nèi)位移（未顯示），從而降低非技能勞動(dòng)力的位置。因此，隨著進(jìn)口帶來了國(guó)家出口部門的科技進(jìn)步的經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易自由化，加強(qiáng)了彼此對(duì)勞動(dòng)力立場(chǎng)的惡化。在這里，開放程度和貿(mào)易的增加會(huì)帶來勞動(dòng)力收入狀況的惡化，但是這對(duì)政府政策去了解相關(guān)兩個(gè)來源的貢獻(xiàn)是很重要的。</p><p>　　當(dāng)我們?cè)试S零部件之間貿(mào)易后，這個(gè)問題變得更

17、為復(fù)雜的問題。例如，假設(shè)每個(gè)最終產(chǎn)品是由兩個(gè)部分組成的。讓X產(chǎn)品包括組件的x和y射線通過點(diǎn)，代表擴(kuò)張之路給人的擴(kuò)張之路的斜坡要素價(jià)格比W / H，和射線AB x分量Y（未畫出）。這是最終產(chǎn)品的要素，X代表的擴(kuò)張之路，沿射線0X強(qiáng)度因子強(qiáng)度的兩個(gè)組成部分的加權(quán)平均。色差x顯然是相對(duì)資本密集型的組件。</p><p>　　當(dāng)運(yùn)輸和協(xié)調(diào)成本花費(fèi)如此高而貿(mào)易壁壘也充滿了限制性，這個(gè)國(guó)家就會(huì)將國(guó)內(nèi)的行業(yè)分成兩個(gè)組成部分。這

18、種類型的綜合生產(chǎn)是模仿許多戰(zhàn)后時(shí)期的大多數(shù)商品生產(chǎn)的規(guī)則。然而,在最近幾年,關(guān)稅的減少和非關(guān)稅壁壘,以及在運(yùn)輸及通信等方面的創(chuàng)新使海上采購和海上生產(chǎn)的成本大幅減少。因此，無論是出口和與進(jìn)口貨對(duì)抗的行業(yè)都正在日益廣泛采用海外采購和生產(chǎn)的組件，也在境外進(jìn)行組裝。如飛機(jī)制造商波音和空中客車以及許多在邊境加工的行業(yè)都是這個(gè)現(xiàn)象的例子。</p><p>　　假設(shè)在圖1的情況下，清除上述障礙降低海外采購配件x2的成本到國(guó)內(nèi)的

19、生產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)變得無利可圖的地步。在X行業(yè)繼續(xù)在國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)零部件x1并組裝產(chǎn)品，但是它把零部件x2的來源改成從國(guó)外進(jìn)口。簡(jiǎn)答的假設(shè)它用出口x1去支付進(jìn)口x2的費(fèi)用。</p><p>　　如果這種生產(chǎn)改革降低產(chǎn)品X的資源成本，就表示在新條件下的等產(chǎn)量線的集合會(huì)向左下角位移。假設(shè)單位價(jià)值的等產(chǎn)量線代表x11給出的新成本條件，使技能與非技能的勞動(dòng)力的數(shù)量用一些點(diǎn)表示要求生產(chǎn)足夠的x1的數(shù)量，并保持原有的x1的生產(chǎn)資金。另外還要

20、加上x1出口的數(shù)量作為進(jìn)口x2的抵消，構(gòu)成初始要素價(jià)格率w/h。</p><p>　　如果是一個(gè)小國(guó)家，成品的價(jià)格在世界市場(chǎng)上是不受這些變化的影響的，這意味著要素價(jià)格率，即w/h，不是一個(gè)平衡的比率。平衡比率必須是原來的Y型等產(chǎn)量線，Y0和新X型等產(chǎn)量線X11。那個(gè)要素價(jià)格率，這里并沒有畫出來，會(huì)明顯比初始要素價(jià)格率w/h更陡，這意味著非技能工人的相對(duì)工資的提高。</p><p>　　在這

21、里，我們需要一個(gè)更復(fù)雜的過程。我們看見圖上面顯示，如果產(chǎn)品X的價(jià)格降低了，那么最終產(chǎn)品的貿(mào)易自由化將X等產(chǎn)量線移出，轉(zhuǎn)變?cè)瓉韺?duì)非技能勞動(dòng)力的要素價(jià)格。但如果貿(mào)易自由化延伸到組件，或者如果降低成本促進(jìn)海外采購技術(shù)變化，那么從這個(gè)等產(chǎn)量線壓力源會(huì)運(yùn)行在相反的方向。數(shù)量和貿(mào)易格局將會(huì)改變，而相對(duì)工資會(huì)上漲，下跌或者是保持不變。在這里，簡(jiǎn)易的斯托爾帕-薩繆爾森理論顯然被打破了。</p><p>　　2.1成分專業(yè)化技術(shù)密

22、集型產(chǎn)業(yè)</p><p>　　如果組件專業(yè)化是發(fā)生在技術(shù)密集型行業(yè)，產(chǎn)品Y將在這個(gè)相對(duì)處于劣勢(shì)的國(guó)家里再一次成為相對(duì)勞動(dòng)力密集型的組件。這將通過線段的斜率cd得出組件y2的擴(kuò)展線。在一定意義上海外采購的影響，然后進(jìn)行對(duì)以前類似案例的分析，給出了新的單位價(jià)值等產(chǎn)量Y11，再次要在要素價(jià)格比率上做一個(gè)調(diào)整。然而，與以往的情況不同，新的平衡要素價(jià)格率，必須要和等產(chǎn)量線Y11相切于xo，比原來的更平坦，因此這暗示著非技能

23、工人的工資將會(huì)下降。</p><p>　　2.2就業(yè)和商品輸出的影響</p><p>　　假設(shè)在經(jīng)濟(jì)情況允許得到了全部就業(yè)的條件下，當(dāng)要素價(jià)格率會(huì)從就業(yè)和輸出這兩個(gè)方向的任何一個(gè)地方，那么海外采購部門就會(huì)得到增加而削減其他部門。從圖2得出調(diào)整后的基本特征，初始平衡點(diǎn)設(shè)在無差異曲線IO上的Qo和Co兩點(diǎn)。Pw是世界價(jià)格比率而Pd國(guó)內(nèi)關(guān)稅包容相對(duì)價(jià)格。海外采購的效果與那些相關(guān)的技術(shù)改進(jìn)有類似的

24、效果，即擴(kuò)大生產(chǎn)可能性曲線沿主軸的行業(yè)。因此，這兩個(gè)控制板上制造都轉(zhuǎn)移到Q1。在圖2a中，采用海上采購的國(guó)家中，與進(jìn)口商品競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的行業(yè)，X產(chǎn)品的輸入增加而Y產(chǎn)品輸入減少（在Q1）。在圖2b中，采用海上采購的國(guó)家中的出口行業(yè)，Y產(chǎn)品的輸入增加而X產(chǎn)品輸入。</p><p>　　國(guó)家利潤(rùn)因?yàn)楫a(chǎn)品Y行業(yè)通過海外采購而得到明顯的增加，但是它的效果是不明顯的因?yàn)樗l(fā)生在與進(jìn)口貨對(duì)抗的行業(yè)。有數(shù)據(jù)顯示國(guó)家利潤(rùn)順著消耗量下降的時(shí)

25、候，點(diǎn)Co會(huì)移動(dòng)到C1。但這并不是唯一可能發(fā)生的結(jié)果。通過固定的國(guó)內(nèi)價(jià)格比率，Pd，猜想到這包含關(guān)稅價(jià)格是一個(gè)較小的關(guān)稅的結(jié)果比以前更適用于世界價(jià)格也比以前減少了。畫得較陡的世界價(jià)格線（沒有畫出）是在圖2中用一條線通過點(diǎn)Qo和Q1，畫的這條線會(huì)因?yàn)榻嵌茸兊酶甘棺约阂沧兊酶?，直到世界價(jià)格線穿過點(diǎn)Qo但是還沒超過Q1，而不是圖上面畫得這樣。在這種情況下，產(chǎn)品X部門的境外采購會(huì)使利潤(rùn)增加。此外，需要注意的是境外采購與進(jìn)口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)部門的影響，以

26、減少最終產(chǎn)品的貿(mào)易，在圖2中由更小的貿(mào)易角顯示（沒有畫出）。因此，盡管貿(mào)易自由化在水平增加進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品數(shù)量，貿(mào)易自由化在構(gòu)成的等級(jí)上的體積減少進(jìn)口數(shù)量。</p><p>　　按照慣例在赫克歇爾-俄林的范圍內(nèi)，充分就業(yè)和重新分配資源的摩擦是已經(jīng)固定的。這是不難想象的，但是，搜索和再培訓(xùn)的費(fèi)用可以減緩調(diào)整的速度，并增加其成本。然而，這是部門從事境外采購可能遇到的產(chǎn)出和就業(yè)的擴(kuò)大。結(jié)果就是那些反對(duì)與低工資國(guó)家進(jìn)行交易的擔(dān)憂

27、，就是海外采購將導(dǎo)致行業(yè)中就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)消失的擔(dān)憂，使變異數(shù)波動(dòng)異常強(qiáng)烈。</p><p>　　雖然上述結(jié)果是由該模型的具體假設(shè)下實(shí)現(xiàn)的，所得出的結(jié)果與我們的設(shè)想基本一致。原本的設(shè)想是采用了境外采購，降低了成本，從而提高競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，出口的產(chǎn)品應(yīng)該增加而不是減少。一個(gè)小國(guó)，它的最終產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格在是由世界市場(chǎng)的需求和供給條件所決定的，通過節(jié)約成本來提高在世界市場(chǎng)價(jià)格銷售。一個(gè)大國(guó)就可以通過降低成本使價(jià)格更低從而擴(kuò)大市場(chǎng)份額。&l

28、t;/p><p>　　我們可以得出結(jié)論，部門注意到組件貿(mào)易自由化使貿(mào)易和工人收入之間的關(guān)系增加多了一層復(fù)雜的關(guān)系。如果貿(mào)易自由化包括了在進(jìn)口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)部門的境外采購，那么工人的相對(duì)工資就會(huì)隨著上升或下降。如果貿(mào)易自由化使得出口行業(yè)更容易境外采購，那么后果將是最終成品進(jìn)口增加對(duì)于工人的相對(duì)工資起到消極的作用。因此，對(duì)于非技能工人來說，產(chǎn)品X在出口行業(yè)企業(yè)采取境外采購以及出口行業(yè)技術(shù)發(fā)展是最壞的情況。</p>&

29、lt;p>　　一些研究人員認(rèn)為，生產(chǎn)非貿(mào)易品行業(yè)的存在可能會(huì)造成不平等收入的擴(kuò)大。我們采用上述方法確定的條件下，會(huì)出現(xiàn)這種情況。我們看到圖1所描述的離岸采購對(duì)非貿(mào)易世界的影響。我們這樣做是通過擴(kuò)展的曲線圖，重新給產(chǎn)品Y和X貼上標(biāo)簽T（用于貿(mào)易）和N（非貿(mào)易）。這意味著X和Y兩個(gè)行業(yè)，已經(jīng)被集中到一個(gè)單一的可貿(mào)易部門，這就要求我們假設(shè)在這次設(shè)定的貿(mào)易條件是保持恒定的。在圖中，非貿(mào)易品（N）現(xiàn)在是勞動(dòng)密集型行業(yè)，而可貿(mào)易（T）是技術(shù)密

30、集型行業(yè)。這種假設(shè)在研究文獻(xiàn)中是一種普遍做法，也可能反映在現(xiàn)實(shí)實(shí)施得很好，特別是如果一個(gè)包括非貿(mào)易部門的范圍廣泛的服務(wù)。</p><p>　　如果是從事境外采購，因此，從到新的單位價(jià)值等產(chǎn)量線轉(zhuǎn)移To到T11的貿(mào)易部門，然后在生產(chǎn)要素價(jià)格的調(diào)整將導(dǎo)致非熟練工人的工資下降相對(duì)熟練同行的。根據(jù)模型，產(chǎn)出和就業(yè)都在貿(mào)易部門和非貿(mào)易品部門的興衰崛起的充分就業(yè)的假設(shè)。作為國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)的進(jìn)一步開放或“全球化”，其可怕的負(fù)面影響的

31、非技術(shù)工人的相對(duì)位置，許多這方面的發(fā)展將被解釋。然而，這樣的結(jié)果帶來了一個(gè)國(guó)家制造業(yè)的擴(kuò)張和收縮，對(duì)非貿(mào)易和服務(wù)部門推測(cè)。這樣的結(jié)果與觀察到的發(fā)展顯然是不一致的，按照制造業(yè)已穩(wěn)步下降，發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體隨處可見。然而，如果像流通，金融，保險(xiǎn)，咨詢等服務(wù)包括在貿(mào)易品，屬于他們的地方，然后該部門將擴(kuò)大的預(yù)測(cè)可能會(huì)少遠(yuǎn)牽強(qiáng)。</p><p>　　當(dāng)在非貿(mào)易品部門中進(jìn)行境外采購的地方，那么結(jié)果是相反的，與非技術(shù)工人的相對(duì)工資上漲

32、和輸出，并在非貿(mào)易部門上漲以及就業(yè)。在這種情況下，服務(wù)業(yè)的擴(kuò)展，而制造業(yè)的跌幅。</p><p><b>　　外文翻譯原文</b></p><p><b>　　Summary:</b></p><p>　　The domestic repercussions of trade liberalization have com

33、e under intense scrutiny in recent years. Trade liberalization and other aspects of globalization have been blamed for income inequality in the United States and unemployment in Europe. A key concern has been trade with

34、low-wage developing countries. Although economists have studied the issue, no clear-cut answers have emerged. This paper examines some reasons for this ambiguity. Endogeneity and simultaneity can create major problems, c

35、a</p><p>　　1 Introduction</p><p>　　As trade and economic openness have grown in recent years, so has the debate over their effects on the welfare of various interest groups. Of particular concer

36、n have been the potential consequences of globalization for the jobs and wages of less skilled workers. This debate has been intensified as the share of industrial-country trade with developing, low-wage countries has ri

37、sen. In the United States, as well as Europe, fears are widespread that jobs, wages and living standards are at risk, esp</p><p>　　Among economists, the debate has focused on the relative contributions of tr

38、ade and technological change to the observed rise in income inequality in the United States and to high and sustained unemployment in Europe.Trade economists have tended to minimize the role of trade in these development

39、s, while a number of labor economists have advanced the opposite argument. Although the debate is far from resolving the dispute, it has revealed the immense complexity of the issue at both theoretical an</p><

40、p>　　Section 2 sets out the basic issues involved and traces the effects on wages and employment in the context of a two-good, three-factor model in which all goods are tradable. Section 3 considers the role of end pro

41、ducts which are non-tradable, but some of whose parts and components may be tradable and thus subject to offshore sourcing. Since offshore sourcing may involve offshore production and hence foreign direct investment, Sec

42、tion 4 examines the implications of capital flows. Section 5 examin</p><p>　　2 Offshore Sourcing and Relative Wages</p><p>　　One of the cornerstones of traditional trade theory is the role of fa

43、ctor proportions in the determination of specialization and trade. Variations in factor endowments across countries and in factor intensities across products play a key role in the determination of comparative advantage.

44、 When these principles are applied at the level of products, it is easily shown that trade liberalization will reduce the relative returns of factors used intensively in the production of import-competing goods.</p>

45、;<p>　　The products entering into international trade are, however, very complex commodities, consisting of many parts and components. In the past, the dominant tendency has been for such products to be produced m

46、ore or less in their entirety in a single country. Outsourcing of parts and components was, of course, widely used, but it tended to be more national than international in nature, mainly because the costs of coordination

47、 rose steeply when outsourcing was pushed across national borders. This te</p><p>　　In recent years, major innovations in transportation and communications technologies have sharply reduced the cost of cross

48、-border coordination, with the consequence that offshore sourcing and production have been growing extremely rapidly. This development has been helped along not only by trade liberalization, but by greater openness of ec

49、onomies around the world to flows of direct investment and to the movement of persons, information and technologies.</p><p>　　Consequently, many products are rapidly losing their national identities as multi

50、nationals and others resort increasingly to offshore sourcing and production of parts, components, and assembly. In making their decisions about where to source, produce or assemble, manufacturers pay close attention to

51、coordination as well as production costs. It is not surprising to find that factor endowments and factor intensities play important roles in determining countries’ competitiveness in the production o</p><p>

52、　　Factor intensity tends to vary across the constituent activities of a complex production process. The factor intensity of the end product, which has been the focus of traditional trade theory, is just the weighted aver

53、age of the associated component factor intensities. Evaluating comparative advantage at the level of components is not very different from doing so for final products. From the factor-proportions point of view, a capital

54、-rich, high-wage country, endowed with plenty of skilled worke</p><p>　　This implies that such a country can improve its competitiveness in the market for the final product by outsourcing labor-intensive com

55、ponents to low-wage countries. The gist of this idea is displayed in Figure 1. There are two products, X and Y, and three factors, capital (K), skilled labor (H), whose return is represented by h and ordinary labor (L),

56、whose return is w. Capital is for the moment assumed to be immobile and sector-specific, while the two types of labor are perfectly mobile betwee</p><p><b>　　Figure 1</b></p><p>　　Cu

57、rves Xo and Yo represent the unit-value isoquants for the two products, respectively. In the Stolper-Samuelson framework, a decline in the price of X, brought about by trade liberalization, shifts the X-isoquant out. The

58、 subsequent adjustment of factor prices to this change in relative goods prices generates a flatter w/h ratio, tangent to the new X-isoquant (not drawn) and the original Y-isoquant. This deterioration in unskilled labor’

59、s position is at the heart of the contemporary debate.</p><p>　　If technological improvement takes place in the X-industry, it will shift the X-isoquant inward (not shown), making the factor-price ratio stee

60、per and thereby improving the relative position of unskilled labor. Thus, if trade liberalization and technical change take place simultaneously in the import-competing industry, the relative position of unskilled labor

61、may improve, deteriorate, or stay the same.</p><p>　　Technical progress in the Y-sector shifts the Y-isoquant inward (not shown), thus worsening the position of unskilled labor. Hence, trade liberalization w

62、hich brings in imports together with technical progress in the country’s export sector would reinforce each other in worsening labor’s position. Here, an increase in openness and trade would be associated with a deterior

63、ation in labor’s income position, but it would be important for policy purposes to know the relative contributions of the two </p><p>　　The problem becomes more complicated when we allow for trade in parts a

64、nd components. To illustrate, suppose that each final product is made up of two components. Let product X consist of components x1 and x2, with the ray through point a representing the expansion path for x1 at factor-pri

65、ce ratio w/h, and ray ab giving the slope of the expansion path (not drawn) for component x2. The factor intensity along ray 0x, which represents the expansion path for the end product, X, is the weighted aver</p>

66、<p>　　When transportation and coordination costs are sufficiently high and trade barriers sufficiently restrictive, the country will produce both components at home. Integrated production of this type was the norm

67、for many commodities in much of the post-war period. In recent years, however, reductions in tariff and non-tariff barriers, as well as innovations in transportation and telecommunications have sharply reduced the cost o

68、f offshore sourcing and offshore production. Hence, both export and impo</p><p>　　Suppose, in the context of Figure 1, that removal of the aforementioned barriers reduces the offshore cost of component x2 to

69、 such an extent that its production at home becomes economically non-viable. The X-industry continues to make component x1 at home and to assemble the product there, but it shifts procurement of component x2 to foreign s

70、ources. Assume for simplicity that it pays for imports of x2 by exporting x1.</p><p>　　If this realignment of production reduces the resource cost of X, then the family of isoquants representing the new cond

71、itions will shift inward and rotate to the north-west. Suppose that the unit-value isoquant representing the new cost conditions is given by X11, so that the quantities of skilled and unskilled labor used at point a repr

72、esent the amounts required to produce enough of x1 to make the original quantity of X, plus an additional amount of x1 to be exported in return for imports of x</p><p>　　If the country is small, end-product

73、prices are given on world markets and are unaffected by these changes, implying that factor-price ratio, w/h, is no longer an equilibrium ratio. The equilibrium ratio must be tangent to the original Y-isoquant, Y0, and t

74、he new X-isoquant, X11. That factor price ratio, which is not drawn, will clearly be steeper than ratio, w/h, implying an improvement in the relative wages of unskilled workers.</p><p>　　Here, we have a furt

75、her complication of the process. We saw above that liberalization of trade in final goods shifts the X-isoquants out if it reduces the price of X; that shift turns factor prices against unskilled labor. But if the trade

76、liberalization extends to components, or if cost-reducing technical change promotes offshore sourcing, then the pressure on isoquants from this source will run in the opposite direction. Both the volume and the pattern o

77、f trade will change, while relative wage</p><p>　　2.1 Component Specialization in the Skill-Intensive Sector</p><p>　　If component specialization were to take place in the skill-intensive sector

78、, Y, it would again be the relatively labor-intensive component in which the country would have comparative disadvantage. This would be component y2, whose expansion path is given by the slope of line segment cd. The ana

79、lysis of the effects of offshore sourcing then proceeds in a manner analogous to the previous case, so that the new unit-value isoquant is given at Y11, again requiring an adjustment in the factor-price r</p><

80、p>　　2.2 Employment and Output Effects</p><p>　　While the factor-price ratio may move in either direction, employment and output will rise in the sector engaged in offshore sourcing and fall in the other s

81、ector, under the assumption that the economy’s resources must be fully employed. The essential features of adjustment are given in Figure 2, where the initial equilibrium occurs at points Qo and Co on indifference curve

82、Io. Pw is the world price ratio and Pd the domestic, tariff-inclusive relative price. Offshore sourcing has effects analogo</p><p>　　National welfare clearly rises as a result of offshore sourcing by the Y-i

83、ndustry, but its effect is ambiguous if it takes place in the import-competing industry. The figure shows the case of a decline in national welfare as consumption moves from point Co to C1. But this is not the only possi

84、ble outcome. At the given domestic price ratio, Pd, imagine that this tariff-inclusive price were the result of a smaller tariff than before applied to a steeper world price than before. That steeper world </p>&l

85、t;p><b>　　Figure 2</b></p><p>　　As is customary in the Heckscher-Ohlin context, full employment and frictionless reallocation of resources is taken as given. It is easy to imagine, however, tha

86、t search and retraining costs can slow the speed of adjustment and increase its cost. Nevertheless, it is the sector engaged in offshore sourcing that experiences an expansion in output and employment. This result is str

87、ongly at variance with the concerns often expressed by those who oppose trade with low-wage countries, namely, that off</p><p>　　While the results above are driven by the specific assumptions of the model, t

88、he outcome is not inconsistent with intuition. Intuition suggests that output should rise rather than fall in the industry which resorts to offshore sourcing, because offshore sourcing cuts costs and thereby improves com

89、petitiveness. A small country, whose end-product prices are given by demand and supply conditions in world markets responds to the cost savings by increasing sales at world prices. A large country is en</p><p&

90、gt;　　We conclude this section by noting that liberalization of component trade adds an additional layer of complexity to the relationship between trade and workers’ incomes. If trade liberalization includes offshore sour

91、cing in the import-competing sector, then workers’ relative wages may rise or fall. If trade liberalization makes it easier for export industries to engage in offshore sourcing, then the consequences will be to augment t

92、he negative effects of the rise in end product imports on workers</p><p>　　3 Offshore Sourcing in the Presence of Non-Tradables</p><p>　　Some researchers have argued that the presence of industr

93、ies producing non-tradables could have contributed to the widening of income inequality. We employ the foregoing approach to identify the conditions under which this would be the case. We return to Figure 1 to sketch the

94、 effect of offshore sourcing in a world with non-tradables. We do so by re-labeling the isoquant maps for Y and X as T (for tradables) and N (for non-tradables). This means that the industries, X and Y, have been lumped

95、tog</p><p>　　If it is the tradables sector which engages in offshore sourcing, so that the new unit-value isoquant shifts to T11 from To, then the resulting adjustment in factor prices will cause the wages o

96、f unskilled workers to decline relative to their skilled counterparts. Under the full-employment assumptions of the model, output and employment both rise in the tradables sector and fall in the non-tradables sector. Thi

97、s development would be interpreted by many as further opening or “globalization” of th</p><p>　　When offshore sourcing takes place in the non-tradables sector, the results are reversed, with the relative wag