專家系統(tǒng)方法，以盡量減少人才外流的影響外文翻譯

1、<p>　　本科畢業(yè)論文（設(shè)計）</p><p><b>　　外文翻譯</b></p><p>　　外文題目 Expert systems approach to minimize the effects of brain drain </p><p&

2、gt;　　外文出處 IJCM </p><p>　　外文作者 Naveed Saleem Abbas N. Azad </p><p><b>　　原文：</b></p&g

3、t;<p>　　Expert systems approach to minimize the effects of brain drain</p><p>　　Naveed Saleem Abbas N. Azad</p><p>　　Brain drain inflicts serious economic and social hardships on developi

4、ng countries. Consequently, these countries resort to such measures as governmental regulations and economic incentives, which aim to slow down emigration of their skilled professionals. However, these measures prove gen

5、erally ineffective.</p><p>　　Furthermore, predictive research on brain drain finds only further increase in, rather than any decline of, the exodus of skilled professionals from developing countries, which e

6、xacerbates the brain drain problem. This paper advocates the use of expert systems to alleviate the scarcity of expertise caused by brain drain.</p><p>　　The use of expert systems for this purpose appears lo

7、gical, because these systems have been successfully used to combat similar problems in developed countries.</p><p>　　INTRODUCTION</p><p>　　Brain drain, the emigration of trained professionals to

8、 other countries, is a matter of great concern to developing countries. Brain drain jeopardizes a country's economic development and weakens its ability to provide essential services to its citizens. To make matters

9、worse for these countries, no reprieve appears to be on the horizon for them. The empirical, predictive studies augur only further increase in rather than any decline of the loss of skilled manpower. The traditional solu

10、tions app</p><p>　　EFFECTS OF BRAIN DRAIN</p><p>　　Brain drain inflicts serious economic and social hardships on developing countries. First, it drains the scarce capital resources of the countr

11、y, as well as hurts the performances of the business entities. For instance, it creates dependence on foreign consultants, which results in the outflow of already scarce capital resources (Kiggundu, 1989). In addition, i

12、t forces businesses to promote less experienced individuals, who may be unprepared to handle their responsibilities, and thus hurt the ov</p><p>　　Second, brain drain jeopardizes the essential services provi

13、ded to the citizens of the developing country. In the Philippines, for example, some hospital wards had to be closed down due to shortage of nursing staff (Cohen, 1988). In Mexico, the emigration of university teachers t

14、o other countries, appears to have caused a decline in the quality of its higher education (Tangeman, 1989, p. A45). In short, brain drain causes serious economic and social implications for a country.</p><p&g

15、t;　　Sometimes, however, the argument is advanced that emigration actually benefits developing countries, because it affords their citizens the opportunity to acquire direly needed expertise and skills. This argument assu

16、mes that the majority of these individuals returns to the home country and makes valuable contributions to its development. However, as described later in this paper, this assumption is not borne out by reality.</p>

17、;<p>　　CAUSES OF BRAIN DRAIN</p><p>　　The two primary reasons believed to trigger brain drain from developing countries are: (1) higher compensation with better opportunities abroad; and (2) political

18、 uncertainty at home. Inadequate compensation for one's skills in the home country becomes a source of frustration to the trained professionals, which motivates them to look abroad for employment. This frustration is

19、 well-spoken by a university professor in Mexico, who complained, "I am a Ph.D. from Stanford and I cannot afford to buy a</p><p>　　TRADITIONAL SOLUTIONS TO BRAIN DRAIN</p><p>　　The goal of

20、 the traditional approaches, used to overcome the brain drain problem, focuses on how to slow down the emigration of trained professionals. Typically, two methods are used to accomplish this go

21、al. One method involves governmental legislation that creates difficulties for professionals to leave the country. For instance, in the Philippines, legislation is under consideration which requires the nursing students

22、to work in the Philippines for a period of at lea</p><p>　　The second method typically used to slow down brain drain is to offer higher salaries and more attractive fringe benefits to the employees. For exam

23、ple, some Hong Kong businesses pay a bonus of three months salary to their current employees, as well as to any expatriates willing to return to Hong Kong ("Stepping Over the Border", 1989). Likewise, Taiwan of

24、fers its expatriates who are willing to return home significant financial assistance and facilities to start their own businesses in Taiwan (T</p><p>　　PREDICTIVE EVIDENCE ON BRAIN DRAIN TREND</p><

25、;p>　　Various studies have examined the prospects of a slowdown in the rate of brain drain from the developing countries. The results of these studies strongly suggest that prospects of such slowdown, if any, are very

26、limited.</p><p>　　One study, Kwok and Leland (1982) examines the issue as to why students from developing countries do not return to their home country from the USA after receipt of their advanced degrees. T

27、hey argue that the economic incentives are not the only cause for this problem. Rather, they hypothesize, individuals of high abilities are not motivated to return because their perceptions remain that the employers in t

28、heir home country may not fully appreciate nor utilize their abilities. The results of this</p><p>　　In summary, the traditional approaches used to reverse or abate brain drain have proved generally ineffect

29、ive. Furthermore, various predictive studies do not foresee any decline whatsoever in the level of brain drain from developing countries. Plus, the opportunities for emigration are on the rise.</p><p>　　Cons

30、equently, these results call for new, innovative approaches to address the brain drain problem.</p><p>　　EXPERT SYSTEMS SOLUTION TO BRAIN DRAIN PROBLEM</p><p>　　Expert systems, a kind of informa

31、tion technology，indeed provides an effective way to minimize the effects of brain drain from developing countries. However, before we explore how expert systems help in this respect, we need to briefly review such system

32、s </p><p>　　An expert system, sometimes called an advisory system, is a computer program that mimics the behavior of human experts within some specific domain of knowledge (Liebowitz, 1988, p. 3). An expert

33、faced with a problem elicits or derives information from various sources pertaining that problem, and then, based on that information, arrives at some decision concerning that problem. Likewise, a user, consulting an exp

34、ert system, provides data or information in response to queries from the system; then</p><p>　　Expert systems may be used to seek advice, make a decision, or solve a problem. For example, DEC sales personnel

35、 use XSEL, an expert system, to recommend a system to customers based on their requirements (Hicks and Lee, 1988). Likewise, expert systems help users select one of the many places to invest based on their financial cond

36、itions, goals, and personality traits (Frenzel, 1987). Also, expert systems exist to help doctors to diagnose illnesses, as well as to prescribe treatments (Frenzel, 19</p><p>　　Within organizations, primary

37、 uses of expert systems are to: (1) train users; (2) make scarce expertise available to many members of the organization; and (3) retain knowledge that might get lost due to the resignation, retirement, or death of an ex

38、pert (Frenzel, 1987; Turban, 1990).</p><p>　　For instance, Eastern Airlines successfully used expert systems to overcome scarcity of professional expertise (Horwitt, 1988). Likewise, General Electric used ex

39、pert systems technology to overcome a scarcity of locomotive engineers. The expert systems developed for this purpose enable novice engineers and technicians to diagnose faults in just a few minutes when they use expert

40、systems. Additionally, these systems even explain the required repair procedures to the user (Bonnison and Johnson, Jr</p><p>　　Another organization, J.P. Morgan & Company, developed an expert system to

41、help its support staff diagnose the problems in a local area network and to suggest the possible procedures to solve the problems (Wilkinson, 1989).</p><p>　　American Express developed an expert system calle

42、d "Authorizer's Assistant" to assist inexperienced authorizers decide the outcomes of requests for credit (Barsanti, 1989). The examples cited above provide clear evidence that expert systems help organizat

43、ions overcome scarcity of expertise, which remains the precise outcome of brain drain. Consequently, with their ability to mimic human experts within some specific domain of knowledge, expert systems offer developing cou

44、ntries a way to overcome </p><p>　　CONCLUSION</p><p>　　Brain drain presents serious economic and social implications within developing countries. Consequently, these countries attempt various ap

45、proaches to alleviate the problems caused by brain drain. The approaches typically used focus on: (1) slowing down brain drain through legislation; (2) reversing brain drain by investing in specialized research to attrac

46、t national scholars from abroad; and (3) offering business incentives to expatriates willing to return. However, such approaches generally pr</p><p>　　This study maintains that expert systems technology prov

47、ides an effective way to minimize the negative impact of brain drain. Expert systems successfully used by numerous organizations in the U.S. have expanded scarce expertise within specific domains of knowledge in these or

48、ganizations. Of course, the expert systems solution is not a panacea. The success of this approach will depend on the technological environment in the industry facing a scarcity of professional expertise. Consequently, f

49、utur</p><p><b>　　譯文：</b></p><p>　　專家系統(tǒng)方法，以盡量減少人才外流的影響</p><p>　　那維徳.薩利姆.阿巴斯北.阿扎德</p><p>　　人才外流對發(fā)展中國家招致嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會困難。因此，這些國家采取的政府法規(guī)和經(jīng)濟(jì)激勵措施，其目的是減緩他們的專業(yè)技術(shù)人才移民。不過，這

50、些措施證明，一般是無效的。此外，在人才流失的預(yù)測研究中發(fā)現(xiàn)不僅進(jìn)一步增加，而不是任何的，來自發(fā)展中國家的專業(yè)技術(shù)人員外流，這加劇了人才外流問題的下降。本文主張在專家系統(tǒng)的使用下，以減輕因人才外流造成的知識匱乏。專家系統(tǒng)的出現(xiàn)為這個目的而使用是符合邏輯的，因為這些系統(tǒng)已經(jīng)被成功地用于打擊發(fā)達(dá)國家類似的問題。</p><p><b>　　簡介</b></p><p>　　

51、人才外流，向其他國家移民訓(xùn)練有素的專業(yè)人員，是一個偉大的發(fā)展中國家關(guān)注的問題。人才流失危害一個國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，削弱它能夠提供基本服務(wù)的公民。為了使這些國家更為嚴(yán)重的事項，沒有緩刑似乎是為他們的視野。實證，預(yù)測研究，預(yù)示著只有在進(jìn)一步增加，而不是任何技術(shù)人才流失的下降。適用于這一問題的傳統(tǒng)解決方案已經(jīng)證明，一般無效，因此，強(qiáng)調(diào)有必要采取創(chuàng)新辦法來解決這個問題。本文主張，專家系統(tǒng)的使用，其中信息技術(shù)類，提供了一個有效的工具，以盡量減少發(fā)展中

52、國家人才外流的影響。</p><p><b>　　人才流失的影響</b></p><p>　　人才外流對發(fā)展中國家招致嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會困難。首先，直接導(dǎo)致該國的資本資源的稀缺，以及傷害了企業(yè)實體的表現(xiàn)。例如，它創(chuàng)建于外國顧問，這在已稀缺的資本資源流出的結(jié)果依賴（Kiggundu，1989年）。此外，它迫使企業(yè)推廣經(jīng)驗的人才減少，誰可能是準(zhǔn)備處理他們的責(zé)任，從而損害國家

53、和國際市場的各組織的整體表現(xiàn)（麥克黑爾，1988）。第二，人才流失危害提供給發(fā)展中國家的公民的基本服務(wù)。在菲律賓，例如，一些醫(yī)院病房由于護(hù)士人手短缺已被關(guān)閉，（科恩，1988）。在墨西哥，大學(xué)教師移民到其他國家，似乎已經(jīng)造成了其高等教育的質(zhì)量下降（丹吉曼，1989年）。總之，人才流失嚴(yán)重的原因是一個國家經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會影響。但是，有時先進(jìn)的爭論表明，移民實際上對發(fā)展中國家有利益，因為它使他們的公民有機(jī)會獲得需要專業(yè)知識和技能。這種說法假定這些

54、人返回家園，使大多數(shù)國家為它的發(fā)展作出寶貴貢獻(xiàn)。然而，正如在本文后面介紹，這個假設(shè)并不證明了現(xiàn)實。</p><p><b>　　人才流失的成因</b></p><p>　　相信觸發(fā)來自發(fā)展中國家的人才外流的兩個主要理由是：（1）更高的賠償額與國外更好的機(jī)會;（二）國內(nèi)政治的不確定性。不足以在本國的技能補(bǔ)償，因而變成了沮喪的訓(xùn)練有素的專業(yè)人員，這促使他們尋找國外就業(yè)。這

55、一挫折是良好的。在墨西哥的大學(xué)教授，誰抱怨說，“我是一名來自斯坦福大學(xué)的博士學(xué)位，我也買不起一輛二手大眾”（丹吉曼，1989年）。除了經(jīng)濟(jì)上的考慮，當(dāng)一個不確定的政治環(huán)境，在本國發(fā)生時，此一事件也火化了專業(yè)人才的流失。例如，中國對香港計劃在1997年收購了一些企業(yè)，害怕大量訓(xùn)練有素的專業(yè)人員，進(jìn)入到其他國家的做法（麥克海爾，1988年）。</p><p>　　傳統(tǒng)的解決方案人才流失</p><

56、p>　　堅持傳統(tǒng)做法的目的，用于克服人才外流問題，著重就如何減緩訓(xùn)練有素的專業(yè)人員移民。通常情況下，兩種方法用于實現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)。一種方法涉及到政府立法，造成專業(yè)人員離開該國的困難。例如，在菲律賓，目前正在考慮需要護(hù)理的學(xué)生在菲律賓工作至少兩年時間，才將被允許出國的立法（科恩，1988）。同樣，在努力阻止其香港公民移民，中方政府宣布不研究是否承認(rèn)由香港國民進(jìn)行外國護(hù)照（查達(dá)，1988）。</p><p>　　第

57、二種方法通常用于減緩人才外流是提供更高的薪水和更有吸引力的福利予雇員。例如，一些香港企業(yè)支付三個月的工資和目前員工的獎金，以及任何外國人愿意回到香港（“加強(qiáng)在邊境”，1989）。同樣，臺灣的外籍人士提供誰愿意回國，將提供大量財政援助和設(shè)施，以幫助其開始在臺灣的事業(yè)（自己的企業(yè)Tanzer，1989年）。同樣，愛爾蘭在高科技產(chǎn)業(yè)的龐大投資，以保持其鮮艷和雄心勃勃的公民，但是，其政策并不十分有效，因為年輕的愛爾蘭人仍然認(rèn)為在愛爾蘭，他們只有

58、有限的機(jī)會（Manasian，1988）。</p><p>　　顯然，只有臺灣有成功吸引其前公民返回家園。其他國家還沒有這方面的運(yùn)氣。例如，墨西哥的學(xué)術(shù)和政治領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人承認(rèn)，他們幾乎無法阻止大學(xué)制度的長期人才外流至國家（丹吉曼，1989年）。同樣，希臘當(dāng)局已經(jīng)認(rèn)識到他們的國家就不能吸引所需的希臘僑民返回希臘的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激（Manasian，1988年）。因此，傳統(tǒng)的方法來減緩人才外流有一個非常有限的成功。</p&g

59、t;<p>　　預(yù)測證據(jù)人才流失趨勢</p><p>　　多項已研究中的一個人才外流來自發(fā)展中國家的速度放緩的前景。這些研究結(jié)果有力地表明，這種放緩，如果有的話，前景是非常有限的。一項研究表明，郭和利蘭（1982）檢測，以發(fā)展中國家的學(xué)生為什么不返回他們的先進(jìn)程度后，他們收到來自美國本國的問題。他們認(rèn)為，經(jīng)濟(jì)誘因是不是這個問題的唯一原因。相反，他們推測，高能力的個人不會返回，因為他們的動機(jī)人們?nèi)匀徽J(rèn)

60、為在本國的雇主可能沒有充分理解，也不利用自己的能力。這項研究的結(jié)果支持他們的假設(shè)。因此，經(jīng)濟(jì)上的考慮，以及心理因素，有助于這些稀有知識資產(chǎn)來自發(fā)展中國家。連戰(zhàn)（1987年）和利蘭延長國（1982）的研究結(jié)果損失，這項研究認(rèn)為，雖然本國雇主可能沒有充分理解，從國外返回，通常是學(xué)校，在那里學(xué)習(xí)的考生，他們推斷這種排名資格就是雇員的資格。有了這個假設(shè)，連戰(zhàn)開發(fā)出了高級學(xué)位的人可能的行為的數(shù)學(xué)模型。這項研究的結(jié)果表明，仍然非常有能力的個人不太可

61、能回到自己的國家?？傊?，用于扭轉(zhuǎn)或減少人才外流的傳統(tǒng)方法已經(jīng)證明一般是無效的。此外，各種預(yù)測研究沒有預(yù)見到任何下降在任何來自發(fā)展中國家流失水平。此外，移民的機(jī)會正在上升。因此，這些結(jié)果需要新的，創(chuàng)新的方法來解決人才外</p><p>　　專家系統(tǒng)人才流失問題的解決</p><p>　　專家系統(tǒng)，信息技術(shù)的一種，的確提供了一種有效的方法，以盡量減少發(fā)展中國家人才外流的影響。不過，在我們探討在

62、如何幫助專家系統(tǒng)這方面，我們需要簡要地回顧這些系統(tǒng)的專家系統(tǒng)，有時也被稱為一個咨詢系統(tǒng)，是一種計算機(jī)程序，模擬在某些特定領(lǐng)域的知識（利博維茨人類專家的行為， 1988年，第3頁）。一位專家面臨一個問題引出或來自各有關(guān)這個問題，然后來源，根據(jù)掌握的信息資料，在一些有關(guān)該問題的決策到達(dá)之前。同樣，用戶，咨詢專家系統(tǒng)，提供數(shù)據(jù)或從系統(tǒng)響應(yīng)查詢的信息，然后根據(jù)所提供的資料，提供系統(tǒng)的意見或建議。專家系統(tǒng)可用于尋求咨詢意見，作出決定，或解決一個問

63、題。例如，DEC的銷售人員使用新華悅動傳媒，專家系統(tǒng)，建議系統(tǒng)對他們的要求的客戶（?？怂购屠?，1988）。同樣，幫助用戶選擇專家系統(tǒng)的許多地方之一，根據(jù)他們的投資金融環(huán)境，目標(biāo)，人格特質(zhì)（弗倫澤爾，1987）。此外，專家系統(tǒng)，以幫助醫(yī)生診斷病情，以及訂明處理（弗倫澤爾，1987）?？傊瑢＜蚁到y(tǒng)的開發(fā)，并在科學(xué)、醫(yī)學(xué)、工程、制造、商業(yè)利用、數(shù)據(jù)處理得到了運(yùn)用（勞赫- Hindin，1988年，第14頁）。組織內(nèi)部，專家系統(tǒng)的主要用途是：

64、（1）培訓(xùn)用戶</p><p><b>　　結(jié)論</b></p><p>　　人才流失對發(fā)展中國家呈現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會影響。因此，這些國家試圖通過各種方法來減輕人才流失所造成的問題。該方法通常用于重點(diǎn)是：（1）通過立法，減緩人才流失;（2）設(shè)立專門研究，以吸引國外投資，扭轉(zhuǎn)國家的學(xué)者人才外流;（3）提供企業(yè)獎勵使外籍人士愿意返回。然而，這種方法一般證明是無效的。這項研