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1、<p>  2250單詞,12500英文字符,4000漢字</p><p>  出處:Glindro E T, Subhanij T, Szeto J, et al. Determinants of house prices in nine Asia-Pacific economies[J]. International Journal of Central Banking, 2011, 7(3): 1

2、63-204.</p><p>  Determinants of House Prices in Nine Asia-Paci?c Economies</p><p>  Eloisa T. Glindro, Tientip Subhanij, Jessica Szeto</p><p>  The paper investigates the characte

3、ristics of house price dynamics and the role of institutional factors in nine Asia- Paci?c economies during 1993–2006. On average, house prices tend to be more volatile in markets with lower supply elasticity and a more

4、?exible business environment. At the national level, the current run-up in house prices mainly re?ects adjustment to improved fundamentals rather than speculative housing bubbles. However, evidence of bubbles does exist

5、in some market segments. </p><p>  Introduction</p><p>  House price risk has attracted much attention in recent years. A number of industrialized economies, including the United States, the Uni

6、ted Kingdom, and Spain, had witnessed a protracted period of signi?cant increases in house prices in the mid-2000s. The perceived lower risk encouraged lax lending criteria in mortgage markets, which greatly contributed

7、to the U.S. subprime crisis and the consequent global ?nancial crisis. Just as suggested by previous studies, house price ?uctuations have caus</p><p>  By comparison, housing markets in most Asian economies

8、 were relatively tranquil during the same period. In recent years, however, there have been growing concerns about the housing market in a few economies. China, Hong Kong SAR (Hong Kong hereafter), and South Korea (Korea

9、 hereafter) have witnessed very strong house price in?ation in the past several years (see ?gure 1). Given the not- so-distant experience of ?nancial crises in this region (such as the 1997 Asian crisis and the so-called

10、 lost </p><p>  There are two opposite views regarding the issue of possible housing bubbles in Asia. A pessimistic view argues that house prices have been overvalued in many countries and will face downward

11、 corrections in the near future. At the extreme, some consider it evidence of new speculative housing bubbles and call for supervisors and central banks to adopt prudential measures to contain them. By contrast, the opti

12、mistic view considers this round of house price growth as a manifestation of recovery fro</p><p>  Figure 1. House Price In?ation (yoy) in Average Residential Markets, 1994–2006</p><p>  Note: A

13、U: Australia; CN: China; HK: Hong Kong SAR; KR: Korea; MY: Malaysia; NZ: New Zealand; PH: the Philippines; SG: Singapore; TH: Thailand.</p><p>  The paper sheds some light on this debate by examining house p

14、rice developments in nine economies in the Asia-Paci?c area, which include Australia, China, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand.3 Speci?cally, it attempts to address t

15、he following questions: What determines the fundamental values and short-term dynamics of house prices in Asia? What is the impact of institutional factors on house price movements? How can one gauge wh&l

16、t;/p><p>  First, we ?nd that the patterns of national house price dynamics exhibit signi?cant cross-country heterogeneity. Moreover, institutional factors matter. In particular, distinction in house price dyna

17、mics can be largely attributable to cross-country di?erences in land supply and business environments.</p><p>  Second, based on the econometric analysis, we characterize house price movements as the sum of

18、three separate factors: (i) the fundamental value of housing (a trend term) that is determined by longer- term economic conditions and institutional arrangements, (ii) the deviation from fundamental values that is attrib

19、utable to frictions in the housing market (a cyclical term), and (iii) an irrational or “bubble” component that is likely to be driven by overly optimistic expectations (an error term).</p><p>  The decompos

20、ition analysis has important policy implications. It allows for distinction between house price overvaluation (the sum of cyclical and error components) and a housing bubble. Policy recommendations are di?erent according

21、ly. To mitigate house price overvaluation that is driven by cyclical movements related to market frictions, a policymaker should probably focus on measures that aim at reducing the magnitude and frequency of house price

22、cycles, such as loosening land use regulation, i</p><p>  The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 pro- vides an overview of the literature and highlights the contributions of this study

23、. Section 3 describes the data and explains the empirical method used to examine the questions of interest, and section 4 discusses the empirical results. Finally, section 5 concludes and provides some policy perspective

24、s.</p><p>  2. A Review of the Literature and Our Contributions</p><p>  2.1 Literature Review</p><p>  To monitor the housing market, it is important to understand ?rst the determi

25、nants of house prices. Housing is a special type of asset that has a dual role as a consumption and an investment good. From the long-term perspective, the equilibrium price a household is willing to pay for a house

26、 should be equal to the present discounted value of future services provided by the property, i.e., the present value of future rents and the discounted resale value of the house. From the short-term per</p><p

27、>  Existing literature suggest that house price movements are closely related to a common set of macroeconomic variables, market- speci?c conditions, and housing ?nance characteristics. Hofmann (2004) and Tsatsaronis

28、and Zhu (2004) examine the determinants of house prices in a number of industrialized economies and ?nd that economic growth, in?ation, interest rates, bank lending, and equity prices have signi?cant explanatory power. T

29、he linkage between property and bank lending is particularly remar</p><p>  On the important issue of detecting house price bubbles, there are several approaches adopted in the literature. Bubble episodes ar

30、e sometimes assessed by market analysts in terms of the pricerent ratio or the price-income ratio. A bubble is typically identi?ed if the current ratio is well above the historical average level. These measures, howe

31、ver, may be inadequate barometers for policy analysis because they ignore the variation in “equilibrium” pricerent (or price-income) ratios driven by</p><p>  Contributions of This Study</p><p>

32、  This paper examines the determinants of house price fundamentals and short-term dynamics in nine Asia-Paci?c economies and thirty- two cities/market segments in these economies, discusses the role of distinctive inst

33、itutional arrangements, and explores the possible emergence of housing bubbles. The empirical framework used in this study follows Capozza et al. (2002), which examines the long-term and short-term dynamics of house pric

34、es in a three-step econometric analysis and characterizes the </p><p>  First, previous studies have mainly focused on the lessons from industrialized economies. This study is one of the ?rst papers to inves

35、tigate the evidence in the Asia-Paci?c, which has gained an increasing importance in the global economy. Given the remarkable experience of housing bubbles in many of the Asian economies in the 1990s, it is interesting t

36、o examine the house price movements after the crisis episode. In addition, Asia-Paci?c housing markets di?er substantially from those of industri</p><p>  Second, our analysis emphasizes the impact of instit

37、utional factors on house price dynamics. The original paper by Capozza et al. (2002) analyzes the impact of a number of factors (such as population, income, and construction cost) on house price dynamics, but the role of

38、 institutions in not examined.6 In this study, we construct a composite measure of institutional factors on the basis of four different aspects of market developments. This measure not only di?ers across countries but

39、also var</p><p>  Third, we extend the housing bubble literature by (i) distinguishing between house price growth and house price overvaluation, and (ii) decomposing house price overvaluation into cyclical

40、 and bubble components. The ?rst distinction is quite obvious. House price growth may simply re?ect the increase in the fundamental value of the property, which is driven by income, mortgage rates, and other factors. By

41、contrast, house price overvaluation refers to the situation that current house prices are h</p><p>  3. Conclusion</p><p>  The study documents evidence of serial correlation and mean reversio

42、n in nine Asia-Paci?c economies and analyzes the patterns of house price dynamics in relation to local institutional features. Notwithstanding the nuances in each market, the regression results validate the hypothesis th

43、at the run-up in house prices up to 2006 re?ects mainly an adjustment to more buoyant fundamentals rather than speculative housing bubbles. Looking back, it appears that property market developments in Asia and t</p&g

44、t;<p>  Despite the relatively benign housing market environment in Asia, it remains crucial for regulators to understand the potential risks embedded in the evolving housing market structure. Whereas our study tr

45、ies to investigate the determination of house price dynamics and evidence of house price bubbles, the answers are far from complete. Further exploration calls for improvement in data compilation and a better understandin

46、g of the mechanism of house price determination. For most of Asia, there ap</p><p>  9 個亞太經(jīng)濟(jì)體中房價的決定性因素</p><p>  Eloisa T. Glindro, Tientip Subhanij, Jessica zetoc</p><p>  本文研究了 199

47、3-2006 年期間,房價的動態(tài)特點以及制度因素在九個亞太經(jīng)濟(jì)體的作 用,一般來說,房價越是動蕩的市場,伴隨著的是較低的供給彈性和更靈活的商業(yè)環(huán)境。在 國家層面,目前房價的運行主要反映的調(diào)整,以改善基本面,而不是投機(jī)性的房地產(chǎn)泡沫。 但是,泡沫的證據(jù)確實存在于一些細(xì)分市場。</p><p><b>  1. 簡介</b></p><p>  房價風(fēng)險近年來備受關(guān)注,許

48、多工業(yè)化經(jīng)濟(jì)體,包括美國,英國和西班牙,在 21 世紀(jì) 頭十年的中期,目睹了一場曠日持久的,房價顯著上漲的狀況。對于風(fēng)險感知較低的鼓勵寬 松的貸款標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的抵押貸款市場,極大地促進(jìn)了美國次貸危機(jī)和隨之而來的全球金融危機(jī)。正如前期研究表明,房價波動將對居民消費產(chǎn)生重大影響,銀行系統(tǒng),和實體經(jīng)濟(jì)。</p><p>  相比之下,在同一時期大多數(shù)亞洲國家的住房市場相對平靜。然而,近年來,一些經(jīng)濟(jì) 體的房地產(chǎn)市場越來越受人們

49、關(guān)注。中國,香港特別行政區(qū)(以下稱為香港),南韓(以下 稱為韓國)已經(jīng)在過去的幾年見證了很劇烈的房價上漲(見圖 1)。鑒于這一地區(qū)對于金融 危機(jī)的經(jīng)驗尚不遙遠(yuǎn)(例如 1997 年亞洲金融危機(jī)以及所謂日本“失去的十年”),經(jīng)濟(jì)的 繁榮和蕭條在房地產(chǎn)市場起到了至關(guān)重要的作用。問題是,觀察到的房價增長是否會導(dǎo)致出 現(xiàn)泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì)。</p><p>  有關(guān)于在亞洲可能的房地產(chǎn)泡沫問題有兩種對立的觀點。一種悲觀的觀點認(rèn)為,在

50、許多 國家,房價已被高估,在不久的將來就會面臨向下的修正。在極端的情況下,有些人認(rèn)為這就是新的投機(jī)性房地產(chǎn)泡沫的證據(jù),并要求主管機(jī)構(gòu)和央行采取謹(jǐn)慎措施,以遏制這一現(xiàn)象。 相反,樂觀的看法認(rèn)為,本輪房價增長是從以前的危機(jī)中恢復(fù)的一種表現(xiàn)。樂觀者認(rèn)為,在以往的危機(jī)之后,與其基本價格相比,房價太低。</p><p>  房價從非常低的水平反彈僅僅是均值回歸過程的結(jié)果。此外,住房市場和住房金融體系 經(jīng)過了過去十年的開放,

51、包括大勢所趨的更加市場化的住房市場,對抵押貸款產(chǎn)品更高的可 用性,以及流動性更強的二級抵押貸款市場,也無疑提高了市場效率,刺激了市場需求,并 促成了房價的增長。</p><p>  本文通過觀察房價在亞太地區(qū)九個經(jīng)濟(jì)體的變化情況對于這一辯論給予讀者一些啟發(fā)。 這其中包括澳大利亞,中國,香港,韓國,馬來西亞,新西蘭,菲律賓,新加坡和泰國。具體來說,它試圖解決以下問題:在亞洲是什么決定了房價的基本價值和短期動態(tài)?是什

52、么 制度因素在影響房價走勢?怎樣才能衡量是否存在房地產(chǎn)泡沫?為了解決這些問題,我們采 用 Capozza 等糾錯框架(2002)。主要結(jié)果如下:</p><p>  首先,我們發(fā)現(xiàn),全國房價的動態(tài)表現(xiàn)出明顯的國家間的差異性。此外,制度因素作用 明顯。特別是,房價動態(tài)的區(qū)別可以在很大程度上歸因于土地供應(yīng)和商業(yè)環(huán)境的跨國差異。</p><p>  圖 1.普通住宅市場的房價通脹(同比),199

53、4-2006 年注:</p><p>  注: AU: 澳大利亞 CN: 中國 HK: 香港特別行政區(qū) KR: 韓國 MY: 馬來西亞 NZ: 新西蘭 PH: 菲律賓 SG: 新加坡 TH: 泰國</p><p>  其次,基于計量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的分析,我們所描述的房價走勢為三個獨立的因素的總和:(一) 由較長期的經(jīng)濟(jì)條件和制度安排決定的房屋基本價值(趨勢項);(二)偏離基本價值是歸因

54、 于住房市場摩擦(一個周期性的術(shù)語);及(三)不合理或“泡沫”成分很可能是由過度樂 觀的預(yù)期(誤差項)驅(qū)動。應(yīng)用這種方法九的經(jīng)濟(jì)在亞洲和太平洋地區(qū),我們發(fā)現(xiàn),在全球 金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)之前,全國住宅價格變動主要體現(xiàn)在改變基本價值觀和對基本面的周期性調(diào)整。 換句話說,有房地產(chǎn)泡沫,這些經(jīng)濟(jì)體,至少在國家層面的一點證據(jù)。在亞太地區(qū)的九個經(jīng) 濟(jì)體中運用此方法,我們發(fā)現(xiàn),在全球金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)之前,全國住宅價格變動主要體現(xiàn)在基 本價值的改變以及基本面上的

55、周期性調(diào)整。 換句話說,在這些經(jīng)濟(jì)體中,至少在國家層次 存在著房地產(chǎn)泡沫的跡象。</p><p>  分解分析具有重要的政策含義。它允許房價高估(周期性誤差分量的總和)和房地產(chǎn)泡 沫之間的區(qū)別。政策建議也相應(yīng)不同。為了減輕由周期性調(diào)整導(dǎo)致的市場摩擦帶動房價的高 估。一個決策者或許應(yīng)該注重采取旨在減少房屋價格周期波動的幅度和頻率的措施,如對于 土地使用監(jiān)管松綁,提高信息的可用性和透明度,以及增強商業(yè)環(huán)境中的開放度。

56、相反的, 為了控制泡沫,相反決策制定者應(yīng)該采取措施控制對于資本利得過高的期望或投資者對于住 房市場的過度自信。</p><p>  本文接下來的部分安排如下:第二節(jié)對既往研究進(jìn)行了概述,并強調(diào)本研究的貢獻(xiàn)。第 三節(jié)主要為數(shù)據(jù)描述,并解釋了用于檢查感興趣問題的經(jīng)驗方法,以及第四節(jié)討論了實證結(jié) 果。最后,第五節(jié)為總結(jié),并提供了一些政策觀點。</p><p>  2. 對于既往研究的回顧以及我們

57、的貢獻(xiàn)</p><p><b>  2.1 既往研究</b></p><p>  為了監(jiān)控房地產(chǎn)市場,最重要的是先了解房價的決定性因素。住房是一種特殊類型的資 產(chǎn),具有消費和投資的雙重角色。從長遠(yuǎn)的角度來看,一個家庭愿意支付的房屋的平均價格 應(yīng)等于財產(chǎn)所能提供的未來服務(wù)的折現(xiàn)值,即未來租金的現(xiàn)值與轉(zhuǎn)售價值的貼現(xiàn)。然而從短 期角度來看,考慮到房地產(chǎn)市場的一些特性(如資產(chǎn)

58、的差異性,首付眼球,賣空限制,信息 缺乏和滯后),房價可以從他們的基本價值偏離。例如 Leung 和 Chen(2006)顯示,土地價格 可以表現(xiàn)出周期性,由于替代的跨期彈性。Wheaton(1999)以及 Davis 和 Zhu (2004)建立一個模型,其中房地產(chǎn)供給滯后和銀行貸款決策取決于物業(yè)的當(dāng)前價值。(標(biāo)記為歷史的依賴 性)它們表明,隨著基本價格的改變,房地產(chǎn)的價格可以收斂到或表現(xiàn)出新的振動平衡值。</p>&l

59、t;p>  現(xiàn)有的文獻(xiàn)表明,房價的走勢與一組通用的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量、市場的具體情況,住房融資 的特點密切相關(guān)。Hofmann(2004) 以及 Tsatsaronis 和 Zhu (2004) 在一些工業(yè)化國家考察房 價的決定因素,發(fā)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,通貨膨脹,利率,銀行貸款和股票價格有顯著的解釋力。地 產(chǎn)和銀行貸款之間的聯(lián)系尤為引人注目,這一點被 Herring 和 Wachter (1999), Chen (2001), Hilbers

60、, Lei, 和 Zacho (2001), 以及 Gerlach 和 Peng (2005).所強調(diào)。在房地產(chǎn)市場對抵押融資 的依賴并不奇怪。此外,房地產(chǎn)市場是地區(qū)性的。Garmaise 和 Moskowitz(2004)找到強有力的證據(jù)表明,關(guān)于當(dāng)?shù)厥袌鰻顩r的信息不對稱,對于重塑產(chǎn)權(quán)交易和融資決定的選擇起到 了重要作用。Green, Malpezzi 和 Mayo(2005)發(fā)現(xiàn),房價動態(tài)在不同的城市有不同程度的供給彈性。<

61、/p><p>  在監(jiān)測房價泡沫的重要問題,也有文獻(xiàn)采用了幾種方法。泡沫有時會被市場分析師在價 格租金比或價格收入比來評估。通常目前比例如果遠(yuǎn)高于歷史平均水平,將會被認(rèn)定為泡沫。 然而這些方法,因為可能是對于晴雨表的政策分析不夠,導(dǎo)致他們忽略了變化“均衡”價格 租金(或價格收入)比率由經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面驅(qū)動的波動(例如,租金的增長,居民收入增長和回 報期望率)。為了克服這些問題,已有兩種方法被提出。第一種方法比較觀察由擁有一

62、幢房 子的用戶成本決定的隨時間變化的貼現(xiàn)因子的價格租金比。其中包括了按揭利息,房產(chǎn)稅, 維修費用,按揭利息開支扣稅,和額外的風(fēng)險溢價。(見 Himmelberg, Mayer,和 Sinai 2005; Ayuso 和 Restoy 2006; Brunnermeier 和 Julliard 2008)。第二種方法,基于房價與宏觀經(jīng) 濟(jì)之間的長期關(guān)系的預(yù)測比較觀察到的房價與基本價值。(見 Abraham 和 Hendershott199

63、6;Kalra,Mihaljek 和 Duenwald2000; Capozza 等人 2002 以及 Holly,Pesaran 和 Yamagata201</p><p>  2.2 本研究的貢獻(xiàn)</p><p>  本文以 9 個亞太經(jīng)濟(jì)體的 32 個城市/細(xì)分市場為樣本,探討了房價的基本面和短期動態(tài) 的決定因素。討論了獨特的制度安排的作用,探討了房地產(chǎn)泡沫可能出現(xiàn)的情況。本研究所

64、使用的是 Capozza 等人(2002)的經(jīng)驗體系。該體系審查了:通過三步計量分析的房價長期 和短期的動態(tài),通過序列相關(guān)的組合特征的房價動態(tài)格局,以及均值回歸系數(shù)(參見 3.2 節(jié))。然而,我們的研究拓展了以前的研究中三個重要方面。</p><p>  首先,以往的研究主要集中在工業(yè)化國家的經(jīng)驗教訓(xùn)上。本研究是第一次將調(diào)查重點放 在亞太地區(qū),這也顯示了這一地區(qū)在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中的重要性日益增加。鑒于許多亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體在

65、20 世紀(jì) 90 年代的對于房地產(chǎn)泡沫的非凡體驗,研究泡沫爆發(fā)后房價的走勢,是十分有趣的。 此外,亞太住房市場在經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融市場的發(fā)展水平以及制度安排方面有很大的不同。在這點 上,現(xiàn)有研究的結(jié)果可以提供互補性的意見。</p><p>  第二,我們的分析強調(diào)制度因素對房價動態(tài)的影響過 Capozza 等人(2002)的先前研究中 分析了若干因素(例如人口,收入,及建筑成本)對于房價的動態(tài)影響,但機(jī)構(gòu)的作用未被審查。

66、在這項研究中,我們構(gòu)建的制度因素從市場發(fā)展的四個基礎(chǔ)方面綜合衡量。這一方 法不僅跨越不同國家,而且隨時間變化。事實上,我們的分析表明,制度因素是解釋九個亞 洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體房價的決定性因素很重要的一環(huán)。</p><p>  第三,我們通過(一)區(qū)分房價增長和房價高估,以及(二)將房價高估分解為周期 性的泡沫成分拓展了房地產(chǎn)泡沫的文獻(xiàn)。第一個區(qū)別是很明顯的房價增長可能僅僅反映了房 地產(chǎn)的基本價值的增加,這是由收入,抵押貸款

67、利率和其他因素的驅(qū)動。相比之下,房價過 高是指當(dāng)前房價高于基本價值的情況。第二是更微妙的區(qū)別。泡沫是必然與房價過高相關(guān)的, 但并不是反之亦然。這是因為在住房市場摩擦,包括滯后供應(yīng)和不完善的信貸市場,可能導(dǎo) 致在短期內(nèi)房價偏離其基本價值。在本文中,房價高估這種周期性成分是由序列相關(guān)和平均房價動態(tài)逆轉(zhuǎn)捕捉到的。不明原因的一部分則定義為泡沫成分,它更容易被住房市場過于樂 觀的預(yù)期所驅(qū)動。了解房價高估的緣由在提供適當(dāng)?shù)恼咝袆由嫌葹橹匾?lt

68、;/p><p><b>  3. 結(jié)論</b></p><p>  本研究證明,九個亞太經(jīng)濟(jì)體的序列相關(guān)性和均值回歸 以及分析了有關(guān)地方機(jī)構(gòu)房價動態(tài) 模式有關(guān)地方機(jī)構(gòu)的功能。盡管每個市場存在著細(xì)微差別,回歸結(jié)果驗證了房價運行到 2006 年,更多的是反映了一個調(diào)查的基礎(chǔ),而不是投機(jī)活躍的住房泡沫?;仡櫸覀儼l(fā)現(xiàn),似乎房 地產(chǎn)市場在亞太地區(qū)的發(fā)展都符合我們對于房價的風(fēng)險評估。

69、盡管溢出效應(yīng)打擊了實體經(jīng)濟(jì), 但房地產(chǎn)市場大多只經(jīng)歷了溫和調(diào)整,而不會對銀行體系造成損害。</p><p>  盡管亞洲的房地產(chǎn)市場環(huán)境相對良性,但監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)了解到嵌入在不斷變化的住房市場結(jié) 構(gòu)的潛在風(fēng)險仍是至關(guān)重要的。而我們的研究試圖調(diào)查房價動態(tài)的決定性因素以及房價泡沫 的證據(jù),然而答案是遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)沒有完成的。進(jìn)一步的研究要求數(shù)據(jù)匯編的改進(jìn)和更好地理解住宅 價格的決定性機(jī)制。對于亞洲大部分地區(qū)而言,都迫切需要提高房價數(shù)

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