建筑安全事故預(yù)測和預(yù)控對策研究

1、中國海洋大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文建筑安全事故預(yù)測和預(yù)控對策研究姓名：彭曉曉申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：管理科學(xué)與工程指導(dǎo)教師：劉強201206ResearchonConstructionSafetyAccidentsForecastingandCountermeasuresinChinaAbstractInrecentyearsconstructionindustryofChinaisinarapideconomicdevelopment，theg

2、overnmentattachesmoreandmoregreatimportancetotheconstructionsafetymanagementAseriesofsafetylawsandregulationshavebeenissuedoneafteranother，andthebuildingsecuritysituationisgraduallyimprovingButcomparedtothedevelopedcount

3、ries，thesafetymanagementandaccidentforecastingofengineeringconstructioninourcountryareinmuchlowerlevelAsoneofthehighriskindustries，constructionindustrystillhasaserioussecuritysituationwhichhashinderedthehealthsustainable

4、developmentofthebuildingandtheforwardpaceoftheharmonioussocietyTherefore，scientificallystudiedtheconstructionsafetyaccidentschangetendencywillbeabletoprovidereferenceforourcountrysafetyinconstructiontopreparereasonableco

5、untermeasuresFirstlythisarticleanalysesandsummarizestheresearchsituationofconstructionsafetymanagementfromthemacroscopicandmicroscopicperspectives，whichincludetheaccident—causingtheory，safetytechnology，safetyassessment，s

6、ecuritylegalsystemandSOon，thenpointsoutthebiggapbetweenhomeandbroadandtheimportantsignificanceoftheconstructionsafetyaccidentforecastingSecondlythispaperexpoundstheaccidentforecasttheory，currentresearchcontentandmethodsT

7、heconstructionaccidentforecastisverycomplicated，Onereasonisthattherelatedindexeshavecharacteristicssuchasnonlinearity，randomnessanduncertaintyTheotherreasonistheimbalanceandcomplexityoftheChineseconstructionsafetysituati

8、onConsideringtheabovecharacteristicsandtheobjectivesituations，thepaperadoptedthegreytheorymethodandtheBPneuralnetworkmethodtoforecastandsimulatethenumberoftheaccidentoccuranddeathThisarticlestatisticthemacroscopicdataabo

9、utthenationalconstructionfrom19982009，thenbuildGM(1，1)modelandBPneuralnetworkmodeltopredictthebuildingdevelopmentsituationcombinedwiththeMatlabsoftwareBeforemakingBPneuralnetworkmodel，acorrelationanalysisamongtheindexeso

10、fconstructiondevelopmentandthesafetyaccidentisusedtoselectindexesthatthecoefficientismorethan05Atlast，12indexesareobtainedtohelptheBPneuralnetworkforecastBasedonthecomparisonbetweenthesimulationresultsandthepracticalstat