基于模糊算法的擁擠人群風(fēng)險分析與控制.pdf

1、同濟(jì)大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文基于模糊算法的擁護(hù)人群風(fēng)險分析與控制姓名：朱慧敏申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：管理科學(xué)與工程指導(dǎo)教師：王霞；關(guān)賢軍200901AbstractABSTRACTInmodemsocietycrowdingproblemsoftenoccurredinpublicplacesTheseproblemsalwaysarisefromacombinationofcrowdbehaviorinadequatevenuedesigna

2、ndbreakdownsincrowdmanagementIflackofeffectiveriskcontrolandmanagement，theunexpectedeventswilloccurredandresultinsignificantlossesAtpresent，theresearchesontheriskofcrowdatequitefewinChinaThisthesisprovidesanewideaforthet

3、opicThispaperfirstlysetsforththebackgroundandresearchsignificance，thensumsuptheexistingresearchfruitsofdomesticandforeignscholarsinthefieldofcrowdriskInresponsetotheriskmanagementneedsofcrowd，thispapercomprehensivelydisc

4、ussesthedefinitionofcrowdsandcrowdedaccidentsinChapter3，whicharethetwocoreconceptsoftheriskmanagementofcrowdsInChapter4，thepapertakesthevolatilityasentrypointforriskanalysisofthecrowdsbystudyingthevolatilitycharacteristi

5、csofthecrowds，thepapergivestherelationshipbetweenflowspeedanddensityofcrowdsmovementsResultsgivethetimeandspacethatCanavoidthegenerationofdrasticflows，whichprovidethetheorybasisforpreventingovercrowdingThispaperproposeda

6、integratedmodelofcrowds矗sl(一PERAM(People&EnvironmentRiskAnalysisModel)inChapter5Byusingrisktriggeringfactorstepresenttheriskofcrowds，thisthesisgivestwokeyvariablesinPERAMriskequation——crowdsfuzzyriskindexandtheriskintens

7、ityofcrowdedaccidentsThenthepaperdepictsatruecase，applyingPERAMtoacrowdedaccidentoccurredinashoppingcenterinChongqingBycalculatingtheriskindexandriskintensitytheresultcoincideswiththefacts，whichprovedthemodelhascertaincr