熱力站負(fù)荷預(yù)報(bào)和節(jié)能監(jiān)控軟件設(shè)計(jì).pdf

1、同濟(jì)大學(xué)軟件學(xué)院碩士學(xué)位論文熱力站負(fù)荷預(yù)報(bào)和節(jié)能監(jiān)控軟件設(shè)計(jì)姓名：李博申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：碩士專(zhuān)業(yè)：軟件工程指導(dǎo)教師：張晨曦劉依20090701AbstractABSTRACTThedissertationfocusesonheatloadforcastingofheatingsupplystationbasedontimeseriesforcastingmethodBecauseCentralheatinghasgraduallybecom

2、ethecityoneofthefoundationsofthenortherncitiesHowtomakethewholecentralheatingsysteminagoodandefficientoperationbecomemoreandmorenecessaryHoweverheatingloadwithacertaindegreeofrandomness，thetraditionaloperationofheatingsy

3、stemisonlybasedonweatherconditionsandworkexperiencetegulatetheheatsupplynetworkoperatingparameters，thustheaccuracyofitislessInthispaper’usesseveralmethodsoftimeseriesanalysisandreal—timedatacollectedintheheatingsystemtof

4、orecastthenextsamplingtimevaluesUsingitasthebasisforoptimalschedulingofheatingsystem，energy—efficientheatingsystemwillIUllandplayanimportantroleinrealtimecontr01Firstofall，thedissertationadoptstheoriginaldatacollectedinh

5、eatingsupplystationandmakesdatapreprocessingSecondlytheuseofhorizontal，vertical，cross—loadforecasting，multipleseasonalARIMAmodeloftheproductheatloadforecastingmethod，resultsshowedthattheapplicationoftheproductofthemultip

6、leseasonalARIMAmodelforecastingtheeffectsofgoodandbetterthanthepreviouspredictionalgorithmAtthesametime，themultipleseasonalARIMAmodelCanautomaticallycompletetheselectionorderFinallythemultipleseasonalARIMAmethodhasbeenap

7、pliedtocentralheatingsystemTheintelligentmanagementsoftwareincludestwoparts；thesearemonitoringsystemandforecastingsystem，andmonitoringsystemincludesdataprocessingsystems，usermanagementsystems，querysystems，input—outputsys

8、tems，securitysystem。Monitoringandmanagementinterfacewillbegivenalotofloadforecastingvalueoftheproposedrevision，SOthatoperatorsCanmonitormoreintuitiveadjustmentofheatingsystem，andguideheatingsystemtosaveenergyandtheseareo