國際石油價格變化對我國經(jīng)濟影響的測度研究.pdf

1、首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學碩士學位論文國際石油價格變化對我國經(jīng)濟影響的測度研究姓名：孟大雷申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：統(tǒng)計學指導教師：紀宏;沈大慶20090406首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學 國際石油價格變化對我國經(jīng)濟影響的測度研究AbstractThe Petroleum as non-renewable resources plays an irreplaceable role in the international economy. The price

2、of petroleum in 2008 had once again refresh the historical highest price, and in mid-July reached a record high of $1.47 per barrel, followed by sharp decline, fell to $40 a barrel in the end of 2008. With the rapid grow

3、th of the national economy in China, the demand of petroleum is increasing rapidly, and domestic petroleum production growth lags behind the demand growth rate. China's petroleum imports rate increased rapidly. And w

4、ith our domestic prices of petroleum forming system becoming more and more rational, the national economy influence of the international petroleum price will become more and more obvious. Petroleum processing industry is

5、 in the upstream of national economy, so every work of life are directly or indirectly affected by the petroleum industry. Thus further study the influence of international petroleum, and find out some effective strategi

6、es to ensure national economic develops rapidly, stably and sustainable have the importantpractical significance.Using the 1992, 1997 and 2002 input-output table compiled the input-outputtable of petroleum processing ind

7、ustry, and on the basis of using the method of RASprocessed the 2007 petroleum direct consumption coefficients, and using the directeconomic contribution index, completely economic contribution index, the directconsumpti

8、on coefficients and indirect cost coefficient, influence factor and degree ofinduction coefficient of national economic the thesis analyzed the overall economiccontribution and influence, emphatically analyzed the influe

9、nce of petroleum industryand how other industries affected by it.The third chapter analyzed the influence factors of international petroleum price, using qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis of time series mode

10、l for the 2009international petroleum price trend forecast. The result tells us that in 2009 theinternational petroleum price for an average of $69.9 a barrel, below the average level in 2008. Then using the model quanti

11、ties the prices changes of other industry because of that of petroleum industry, and based on this, carried on the empirical analysis.Finally, the paper proposed preventing prices shake short-term and ensuring theconfide

12、nce of consumer, Establish national strategic petroleum reserve and actively increase domestic petroleum field exploration, put improving energy conservation andefficiency in the first place, relying on science, implemen

13、ting the strategy of sustainable development, Effective use of various resources, developing alternativeresources to reduce the international petroleum price crisis.Key words: input-output table time series direct consum