全球整裝石油：一筆勾銷

1、/▼卜 HSBCGlobal Research10 August 2020Integrated OilsWritten offEquitiesOil BP our preferred name; Buys also reiterated on Repsol and TotalWritten off: In the past three quarters, the Integrated Oil Companies (lOCs) have

2、 written off 8-9% of their capital employed, mainly as they embrace more conservative macro assumptions in light of the energy transition. At the same time, the sector itself seems to have been written off by investors,

3、hitting new relative lows in recent weeks and indicating a widespread lack of confidence in the sector's outlook.Macro Macro to to the the rescue? rescue? The unprecedented confluence of weak macro conditions in 2Q l

4、ed to dividend cuts from half the companies in our coverage, eroding confidence in the companies as reliable yield plays. We think we are headed towards a much tighter oil market in the coming months (see Oil Things Cons

5、idered: Inflection Point (3 August 2020); this should help perceptions of the sector's outlook, but it alone is unlikely to give the market enough confidence for substantial outperformance.Where Where BP BP leads....

6、: leads....: BP's presentation was ground-breaking in setting out detailed plans on near-term emissions goals, capital allocation and lower production (see BP (Buy): raising the climate bar once more (6 August 2020).

7、 This of course raises big questions for investors about future financial frameworks which require a leap of faith over low-carbon returns in particular. Given the climate ambitions of all the European lOCs and the need

8、for more widespread short-term benchmarking, this is a process we expect to be repeated across the group.We update estimates and target prices for our coverage. Beyond 2020, changes to our CFPS estimates are minimal. We

9、have lowered TP's on several of the European lOCs to reflect a slower expected re-rating; a notable exception is Total, given its continued robustness in the current environment. Buy-rated stocks remain BP, Repsol an

10、d Total, and Hold rated stocks Chevron, Exxon, Shell, ENI and Equinor.gordon.gray@hsbcib +44 20 7991 6787Employed 力 a non-US afftWtg cf HS8C Secun^es (USA) me. end is not 83” quabfied ptrsuart lo FlmA regutaftonsof rt

11、poft HS8C8ar*p*cThs YGO ram 8 win trwanafyvc6Mqm and wtn m disdBmtr cntrwbnk axhg ooGordon Gray Gk>M ofOtland Gas Equty R«s«a(chGordon Gray*Global Head of Oil and Gas Equity ResearchHSBC Bank plcgordon.gra

12、y@hsbcib +44 20 7991 6787Kim Fustier* Analyst,Oil & Gas HSBCBank plckim.fustier@hsbc +44 20 3359 2136* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to

13、 FINRA regulationsTP 2021eCompany/Ticker CurrencyCurrent _ priceNew Old RatingUpside/ DownsideDiv yield 一 2020e PE EV/CF FC yieldBP (BP/ LN) GBp 306.7 380 380 Buy 23.9% 6.5% 13.0 6.8 8.7%Chevron (CVX US) USD 87.2 93.0

14、89.0 Hold 6.7% 5.9% 36.7 8.5 7.0%ExxonMobil (XOM US) USD 43.9 48.0 47.5 Hold 9.5% 8.0% 38.3 9.3 4.5%Shell A (RDSA LN) GBp 1,199 1,360 1,455 Hold 13.5% 4.1% 12.7 5.6 7.0%Shell B (RDSB LN) GBp 1,158 1,320 1,410 Hold 14.0%

15、4.2% 12.3 5.6 6.9%Total (FP FP) EUR 33.84 40.00 39.25 Buy 18.2% 7.3% 12.4 5.7 10.0%ENI (ENI IM) EUR 8.10 8.40 9.60 Hold 3.7% 4.4% 22.7 4.8 10.5%Repsol (REP SQ) EUR 7.06 8.45 9.30 Buy 19.7% 13.7% 8.7 4.5 12.4%Equinor (EQN

16、R NO) NOK 143.6 134.0 136.0 Hold (6.7%) 2.3% 13.8 4.8 7.5% Integrated Integrated oils: oils: Summary Summary of of ratings ratings and and valuations valuationsSource: Refinitiv Eikon, HSBC estimates. Priced at close 05

17、August 2020Issuer of report: HSBC Bank plcDisclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part o

18、f it. View HSBC Global Research at:s :// research. hsbe. comEstimates Estimates updated updated post-2Q post-2QIn In this this report, report, we we update update our our estimates estimates on on the the companies c

19、ompanies to to reflect reflect our our revised revised oil oil price price deck deck for for 2H20, 2H20, and and company company 2Q 2Q results results and and updates. updates. Some Some of of our our CFPS CFPS forecasts

20、 forecasts for for 2020 2020 have have changed changed significantly, significantly, but but this this mostly mostly reflects reflects big big variations variations in in 2Q 2Q actuals. actuals. Changes Changes to to our

21、 our 2021- 2021- 22 22 CFPS CFPS forecasts forecasts are are mostly mostly minimal. minimal.The large percentage changes to our 2020 earnings estimates mostly reflect how close to marginal (or in many cases in losses) th

22、e companies5 earnings are this year. We don't view comparisons with consensus estimates as being particularly useful at the moment due to the scale of volatility in macro factors and as a result, in consensus estimat

23、es.Integrated Integrated oils: oils: EPS EPS estimate estimate changesCurrent changesCurrent forecast forecast Prev Prev forecast forecast F/c F/c change change HSBC HSBC vs vs Cons. Cons. 2020e2021e2022e2020e2021e2022e2

24、020e2021e2022e2020e2021e2022e 2020e2021e2022e2020e2021e2022e2020e2021e2022e2020e2021e2022eSupermajor ave 4% (0%) 1% 21%European ave 12% 2% 10% 20%Average 10% 1% 2% 20%Source: Refinitiv Eikon IBES consensus, HSBC estimate

25、s. Integrated oils: CFPS estimate changes (all given in USD for comparability)Current forecast Prev forecast F/c change HSBC vs Cons.2020e2021e2022e2020e2021e2022e2020e2021e2022e2020e2021e2022eBP (BP/ LN) USD (0.22) 0.31

26、 0.57 (0.22) 0.31Chevron (CVX US) USD (1.79) 2.38 5.31 (1.49) 2.24Exxon (XOM US) USD (0.38) 1.14 3.90 (0.69) 1.08Shell A (RDSA LN) USD 0.54 1.24 2.24 0.13 1.23Total (FP FP) USD 1.21 3.22 4.86 0.37 2.97ENI (ENI IM) EUR (0

27、.45) 0.36 0.86 (0.89) 0.30Repsol (REP SQ) EUR 0.21 0.81 1.48 0.14 0.81Equinor(EQNRNO) USD 0.52 1.16 1.62 0.03 0.8275928408 7592840853828854 53828854% %7 610 10 2依3 2%/a/a %/a/a⑹ ⑹％⑹ ％吧n(13° n(13°喘 ％/^v /^v 9811