因果聯(lián)結(jié)在貝葉斯推理中的作用

1、河北師范大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文因果聯(lián)結(jié)在貝葉斯推理中的作用姓名：楊炎梅申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：基礎(chǔ)心理學(xué)指導(dǎo)教師：魯忠義20100520IV Abstract Bayesian rules is a important theory in the decision-making study，most of the former research indicated that people often make errors in the pr

2、ocess of Bayesian reasoning，But the results of the recent study found that human’s cognitive behavior are according to the Bayesian rules.Therefore there is great implications to exploring the factors which influence Bay

3、esian reasoning . In this study，we set three experiments to explore the role of causality in bayesian reasoning. In experiment 1,we found:causality do not affect bayesian calculation,but participants had different perfor

4、mance in the different premise. In experiment 2 we explored the role of causality in bayesian estimation,The result showed:The causality observably influence bayesian estimation. In the experiment 3, we evaluated the num

5、erical equivalents of 28 Chinese verbal probabilistic expressions in first,and second we used these words to replace the numerical probability in the traditional Bayesian reasonin, The results suggested: participants in