環(huán)保工程及服務行業(yè)融資望改善，督查促發(fā)展，龍頭迎機遇

1、內容目錄一、環(huán)保行業(yè)2018年整體表現(xiàn)............................................................................41.行情回顧：跌幅較大，估值處于歷史底部..............................................................42.業(yè)績表現(xiàn)：去杠桿下增速回落，子板塊分化顯著..................

2、......................................5二、融資回款改善，PPP走向規(guī)范..........................................................................61.融資及回款雙重改善，壓制因素得緩解................................................................62.PPP走

3、向規(guī)范，利于優(yōu)質PPP釋放....................................................................8三、環(huán)保監(jiān)管趨嚴，倒逼行業(yè)需求顯現(xiàn).....................................................................111.監(jiān)管趨嚴，倒逼環(huán)保需求顯現(xiàn)...................................

4、....................................112.各領域環(huán)保治理需求仍大...........................................................................151)大氣領域：排放標準趨嚴帶來增量空間...........................................................152)水務領域：十三五提標

5、擴容新周期，投資空間仍大.................................................173)垃圾焚燒領域：十三五期間垃圾焚燒增量空間仍大.................................................184)農村環(huán)保領域：基礎較差，投資需求強烈.........................................................18四、競

6、爭加劇，精選高景氣、高壁壘子行業(yè).................................................................191.競爭格局惡化，高壁壘資產價值凸顯.................................................................191)跨界者涌入，高壁壘行業(yè)為優(yōu)選方向..................................

7、...........................192)參考海外，高壁壘子行業(yè)價值顯現(xiàn)...............................................................212.督查倒逼，供不應求，危廢行業(yè)高景氣...............................................................231)危廢供需不匹配，監(jiān)管倒逼真實需求.......

8、......................................................232)行業(yè)格局“小散亂”，龍頭望脫穎而出.............................................................253.下沉空間廣闊，監(jiān)測需求仍大...................................................................

9、....281)政策推動需求擴張，監(jiān)測行業(yè)高景氣.............................................................282)監(jiān)測行業(yè)集中度提升，龍頭持續(xù)受益.............................................................30五、風險提示..............................................

10、.............................................31圖表目錄圖表1：年初以來環(huán)保板塊表現(xiàn)（%）.................................................................4圖表2：環(huán)保行業(yè)跌幅居行業(yè)倒數(shù)第一.................................................................4圖表3

11、：環(huán)保板塊整體收入利潤增速...................................................................5圖表4：部分環(huán)保公司經(jīng)營轉變.......................................................................5圖表5：細分行業(yè)歷年收入增速.......................................

12、................................6圖表6：細分行業(yè)歷年利潤增速.......................................................................6圖表7：近期民企股權及融資市場改善.................................................................6圖表8：近期重要融資利好政策....

13、...................................................................7圖表9：市場利率下行（%）.........................................................................8圖表10：碧水源CRMW示意圖..................................................

14、.....................8圖表11：PPP各階段項目數(shù)變化（個）................................................................9圖表12：PPP項目投資額:生態(tài)建設和環(huán)境保護各階段（億元）............................................9圖表13：環(huán)保類PPP占項目數(shù)及融資額比例上行（億元）............

15、....................................9圖表14：近期PPP相關利好政策.....................................................................10圖表15：2016年基建資金來源......................................................................11()))(())

16、(((((((Ⅱ()(()(((()((()()()(())(((())Ⅱ()())(100102030405060一、環(huán)保行業(yè)2018年整體表現(xiàn)1.行情回顧：跌幅較大，估值處于歷史底部受去杠桿、PPP監(jiān)管趨嚴等影響，環(huán)保板塊2018年整體跌幅較大。環(huán)保行業(yè)自去杠桿以來信用擴張受阻，前端融資不暢使得工程進展緩慢、后端地方政府財政趨緊導致支付能力下降，使得環(huán)保企業(yè)現(xiàn)金流惡化、壞賬增加，故EPS、PE均有下調。截止2018年12月31日，環(huán)

17、保行業(yè)跌幅為48.1%，在申萬35個行業(yè)中環(huán)保行業(yè)排行最后，跑輸大盤22.9個百分點，跑輸創(chuàng)業(yè)板18.5個百分點。此外，當前環(huán)保板塊估值20.5倍，已下降至歷史低點，而近期一系列融資改善政策的出臺，板塊望受益，配置價值凸顯。圖表1：年初以來環(huán)保板塊表現(xiàn)（%）環(huán)保(中信)上證指數(shù)滬深300創(chuàng)業(yè)板指20資料來源：wind、圖表2：環(huán)保行業(yè)跌幅居行業(yè)倒數(shù)第一0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%銀休燃非醫(yī)計電上滬食農鋼