從歷史看電動(dòng)自行車在中國(guó)快速轉(zhuǎn)型的主要原因【外文翻譯】

1、<p>　　本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯</p><p>　　外文題目： The transition to electric bikes in China: history and key reasons for rapid growth </p><p>　　出 處： Transport

2、ation </p><p>　　作 者： Jonathan Weinert 、Chaktan Ma and Christopher Cherry </p><p>　　The transition to electric bikes in China: history and key</p><p>　　

3、reasons for rapid growth</p><p>　　Jonathan Weinert Chaktan Ma Christopher Cherry</p><p>　　Abstract Annual electric bike (e-bike) sales in China grew from 40,000 in 1998 to 10 million in 2005.

4、 This rapid transition from human-powered bicycles, buses and gasoline-powered scooters to an all-electric vehicle/fuel technology system is special in the evolution of transportation technology and, thus far, unique to

5、China. We examine how and why e-bikes developed so quickly in China with particular focus on the key technical, economic, and political factors involved. This case study provides</p><p>　　Keywords E-bike E

6、lectric bicycle Electric scooter Two-wheel vehicle</p><p>　　Introduction</p><p>　　Electric bikes are a category of vehicles in China that includes two-wheel bikes propelled by human pedaling

7、supplemented by electrical power from a storage battery, and low-speed scooters propelled almost solely by electricity (usually with perfunctory pedals to satisfy legal definitions). These vehicles have become a popular

8、transportation mode for Chinese consumers because they provide an inexpensive and convenient form of private mobility and are thus an attractive alternative to public tran</p><p>　　Understanding the transiti

9、on to e-bikes is important for guiding the future of personal mobility in China and other developing countries. First, China is on the brink of large-scale motorization (i.e. people buying cars). Understanding how and wh

10、y a large-scale technology system (e-bikes) is successfully adopted may provide insight and a foundation for a smoother transition to cleaner vehicle/fuel systems for personal cars as motorization continues. Secondly, ma

11、ny other developing nations in Sou</p><p>　　Electric bikes background and current status</p><p>　　There are hundreds of models of electric bikes manufactured in China. Most can be categorized as

12、 bicycle style electric bikes (BSEB) or scooter style electric bikes (SSEB) (see Fig. 1) (Jamerson and Benjamin 2005). There is a spectrum of styles between these two types that almost all electric bikes styles fall into

13、. The SSEBs have many of the features of gasoline-powered scooters such as horns, headlights, brake lights, turn signals and speedometers. Most rely exclusively on electric power, not </p><p>　　The technolog

14、y of each type of electric bike is similar. The main components of an electric battery include a hub motor, controller and battery. BSEBs typically have 36 V batteries and 180–250 W motors. SSEBs typically have larger 48

15、 V batteries and higher-powered motors 350–500 W. Electric bikes are regulated not to exceed 20 km/h, but many, especially scooters, can travel at speeds in excess of that limit and some are advertised to go 40 km/h. A s

16、mall sub-survey of 14 e-bike users reveal top s</p><p>　　E-bike issues</p><p>　　Safety is perhaps the most important issue facing e-bike growth. In November 2006, Guangzhou became the third city

17、 in China to ban e-bikes (behind Fuzhou and Zhuhai), under advice from the traffic management bureau citing traffic safety concerns (XinhuaNet 2006). This is primarily because e-bikes, while becoming faster and heavier,

18、 are very quiet. When operating, they are virtually imperceptible by ear, especially to vehicles, which makes e-bike users vulnerable but also dangerous to pedestrian</p><p>　　While e-bikes provide zero tail

19、-pipe emissions, they do emit pollution from power plants, which are 75% coal fired in China (Cherry 2006). This results in increased emissions of certain pollutants, particularly SO2, which is particularly problematic i

20、n Chinese cities. Other pollutants are low, compared to alternative modes (Cherry 2006). Lead emissions from battery production and recycling have serious health implications in China. Because of poor production and recy

21、cling practices within the le</p><p>　　The Chinese e-bike industry</p><p>　　The Chinese e-bike industry, with minimal governmental financial support and industry supervision, has developed into

22、the largest producer of e-bikes worldwide. Most produce between 10,000 and 50,000e-bikes a year, but there are six companies with an annual production of over200,000 e-bikes.</p><p>　　One reason for the larg

23、e number of companies in this industry is that component technology is mature, the network of suppliers is vast, and manufacturing is relatively simple.2 Profit margins of eight OEMs average at only 6%. There is also con

24、siderable theft of intellectual property (IP) by the small to medium companies according to interviews with the managers from larger e-companies. Because of the low barriers to entry and lax IP protection, there are many

25、 unlicensed e-bike makers selling poo</p><p>　　The companies that currently make e-bikes come from a variety of industrial backgrounds. Some are established companies producing bicycles, motorcycles, electri

26、cal appliances, and even toy cars, that shifted to making e-bikes when demand grew. Some of these companies are over 60 years old, but most did not start producing e-bikes until post-2000. Many companies with no past man

27、ufacturing experience entered the industry making e-bikes directly.</p><p>　　Important factors for rapid e-bike growth</p><p>　　The reasons for e-bike success in the 3rd phase can be categorized

28、 into three important development factors: technology, economics, and policy.</p><p>　　1、Technology factors</p><p>　　Improvements in battery and motor technology since the 90s helped expand the

29、market for e-bikes. E-bikes, reaching ranges of 50–60 km . </p><p>　　Over 95% of e-bikes sold in China use Pb-acid batteries (Jamerson and Benjamin 2005). While Pb-acid batteries have been in use for nearly

30、a century in automobiles and other applications, there have been important advances in the past decade rendering them more suitable for e-bikes.</p><p>　　During the first phase of e-bike introduction, batter

31、ies used liquid acid electrolyte instead of the fixed electrolyte used in most Pb-acid batteries today. Liquid-type required more maintenance, and if the battery or bike fell over, electrolyte leaked out and caused prope

32、rty damage. Most e-bikes today use valve-regulated Pb-acid types with gel or absorbed glass mat (AGM) electrolyte, which, in addition to improving energy density, also minimizes maintenance and electrolyte spills due to

33、its sea</p><p>　　2、Economic factors</p><p>　　The most important economic factors explaining rapid e-bike adoption in China are the rising income level of the Chinese, the decreasing cost of e-bi

34、ke technology, and the rising cost of gasoline.The rapid development of China in the past decade has raised the standard of livingof its residents, bringing the e-bike within closer reach of millions more. Between1997 an

35、d 2004, average disposable income increased 82% from $645/year to $1180/year.</p><p>　　Fuel price has risen substantially in the past 6 years. Gasoline prices in Shanghai increased 45% since 2002 from $0.39

36、to $0.56/liter (excluding inflation). Consumers purchase decisionsare sensitive to fuel cost increases since it is a more frequent payment.Along with rising gasoline prices, electricity prices fell in rural areas. This

37、price decrease was due to significant investment from central government in electricity infrastructure through rural areas nationwide, and the decision to drop </p><p>　　expand rapidly.3 One electric bike co

38、mpany estimates that in 2005 the rural consumers accounted for 20% of their national e-bike sales .</p><p>　　3、Policy factors</p><p>　　China’s rapid urbanization (the flux of rural people into c

39、ities) over the past decade, also a product of economic and political changes, is another a factor in e-bike growth. Urbanization has led to increased congestion within cities and greater demand for low-cost peripheral h

40、ousing in their suburbs. Public transportation service in most cities is crowded and slow due to congestion, which is one of the mostcommonly stated reasons e-bike users choose this mode . Buses are also inherently infle

41、x</p><p>　　Conclusions</p><p>　　E-bikes, though they floundered twice in the 80s and early 90s, experienced extraordinary growth in the late 90s to the present due to a combination of economic,

42、technical, and political factors, summarized below:</p><p>　　1. E-bike technology, specifically motors and batteries, improved significantly during the late 1990s. Simple technology, a vast supplier base, an

43、d weak IP protection made it easier for e-bike makers to enter the industry, increasing competition and driving prices down.</p><p>　　2. Due to improving economic conditions nationally, incomes of urban hous

44、eholds and the share spent on transportation both rose considerably.</p><p>　　3. E-bike prices decreased, gasoline prices rose and electricity prices in rural areas dropped, making e-bikes more competitive e

45、conomically with alternatives like gasoline-powered scooters and bus.</p><p>　　4. National and local government policy motivated by energy and air quality issues created favorable conditions for e-bike growt

46、h. Banning gasoline powered motorcycles in large city centers removed the most competitive mode from the choice set.</p><p>　　5. National e-bike standards with loop-holes and flexible guidelines created a ri

47、ch opportunity for manufacturers to create e-bikes that appealed to more users, namely, scooter-style electric bikes.</p><p>　　6. Due to changes in urban form, performance of alternative transportation modes

48、 decreased as trips lengths and congestion increased. This made trips difficult to traverse by bicycle and slow by motorized modes, particularly buses and taxis.</p><p>　　Recommendations</p><p>

49、　　E-bikes are still in their infancy and many of their negative impacts can be mitigated through technology improvements (particularly increased use of advanced battery technology), improved traffic operation strategies

50、and enforced design and performance specifications. Removing vulnerable road users like bikes and e-bikes and encouraging truly unsafe modes like cars is a poor policy direction. Rather than prohibit electric bikes, the

51、industry, government and users need to address the problematic</p><p>　　transportation systems and mode choice as China motorizes. </p><p>　　Looking forward, this analysis hints at future techno

52、logy evolution paths for China’s 450 million bike users, 22 million current e-bike users, and burgeoning car population. In smaller cities and countryside where incomes are rising, e-bikes may eventually replace bicycles

53、. China’s experience may also have a trickle-down effect in other developing countries with high 2 WV use (e.g. India, Vietnam) and mounting urban transportation problems. Speculating on the future of technology evolutio

54、n and t</p><p>　　In any case, the implications of how and where this technology system develops are huge. These implications, both positive and negative, on urban traffic, industry development, energy use, a

55、nd environmental impacts, warrant further investigation.</p><p><b>　　譯文：</b></p><p>　　從歷史看電動(dòng)自行車在中國(guó)快速轉(zhuǎn)型的主要原因</p><p>　　喬納森·維納特 Chaktan·馬 斯托弗·克里</p>&

56、lt;p>　　【摘 要】電動(dòng)自行車（電動(dòng)車）在中國(guó)年度銷售額從1998年的40,000到2005年的1000萬(wàn)。本文從人力自行車,公共汽車和用汽油作動(dòng)力的滑板車過渡到特殊燃油系統(tǒng)的全電動(dòng)車，到目前為止,中國(guó)在交通運(yùn)輸上的發(fā)展是獨(dú)一無(wú)二的。我們研究如何以及為什么電動(dòng)自行車在中國(guó)發(fā)展這么快，特別側(cè)重于關(guān)鍵的技術(shù)，經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治因素。這項(xiàng)個(gè)案研究重要的見解決策者在中國(guó)和國(guó)外如何及時(shí)監(jiān)管政策可以改變數(shù)以百萬(wàn)計(jì)選購(gòu)，并創(chuàng)建一個(gè)新模式運(yùn)輸。這些

57、經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)對(duì)中國(guó)尤其重要，不僅因?yàn)樗婕皬拇笮徒煌ǖ絺€(gè)人車輛，還向其他國(guó)家尋求更多交通可持續(xù)形式。</p><p>　　【關(guān)鍵詞】電動(dòng)自行車 電動(dòng)滑板車 兩輪車</p><p><b>　　簡(jiǎn)介</b></p><p>　　電動(dòng)自行車，是指以蓄電池作為輔助能源在普通自行車的基礎(chǔ)上，安裝了電機(jī)、控制器、蓄電池、轉(zhuǎn)把閘把等操縱部件和顯示儀表系統(tǒng)的機(jī)電

58、一體化的個(gè)人交通工具。這些車輛,已成為一個(gè)受歡迎的運(yùn)輸方式,因?yàn)樗麄優(yōu)橹袊?guó)消費(fèi)者提供廉價(jià)和便利的形式的私人流動(dòng),因此對(duì)比公共交通或定期騎自行車，是一個(gè)有吸引力的選擇。由于他們能耗低,排放低，他們?yōu)閲?guó)家許多擁堵城市地區(qū)的政府所推動(dòng)。電動(dòng)車在中國(guó)交通的占有額日益增加，在中國(guó),和在一些城市像成都和蘇州,甚至超過了自行車模式份額。</p><p>　　在中國(guó)和其他發(fā)展中國(guó)家，因?yàn)閭€(gè)人移動(dòng)性日益重要，電動(dòng)車引領(lǐng)未來(lái)或許成為

59、趨勢(shì)。第一,中國(guó)在大型機(jī)動(dòng)化(即邊緣人購(gòu)買轎車)。一個(gè)大型技術(shù)系統(tǒng)(電動(dòng)車)成功應(yīng)用是因?yàn)榭梢蕴峁┯屑夹g(shù),又環(huán)保的車輛/燃油系統(tǒng)，個(gè)人汽車的動(dòng)力化還在繼續(xù)。其次,許多其他發(fā)展中國(guó)家比如東南亞(印度和越南等)，車輛使用正面臨著同樣的空氣質(zhì)量和能源問題。這些國(guó)家可能可以向中國(guó)學(xué)習(xí)經(jīng)驗(yàn),采取電動(dòng)車。</p><p><b>　　電動(dòng)車的背景和現(xiàn)狀</b></p><p>　

60、　數(shù)百個(gè)型號(hào)的電動(dòng)自行車在中國(guó)生產(chǎn)。大多數(shù)可以分為幾類,如（BSEB）自行車風(fēng)格電動(dòng)車和機(jī)車風(fēng)格(SSEB)。有一種風(fēng)格在這兩者之間,幾乎所有電動(dòng)車風(fēng)格都涉及。SSEB有許多如摩托車汽油頭燈、角,剎車燈,以汽油為動(dòng)力的滑板車的許多特點(diǎn)。大多數(shù)完全依賴電力，而不是人力。BSEB在外觀和功能標(biāo)準(zhǔn)更像自行車,包括功能踏板。在很多城市,電動(dòng)車是允許在自行車道行駛的,從監(jiān)管的角度，他們被看作是一個(gè)自行車(即頭盔、司機(jī)許可證是不需要)。</p

61、><p>　　每一種類型的電動(dòng)車技術(shù)是相似的。主要部件電動(dòng)電池包括一個(gè)轂電機(jī)、控制器和電池。BSEB通常有36 V電池和180-250 W電機(jī)。SSEB通常有較大的48 V電池和高動(dòng)力馬達(dá) 350-500 w，電動(dòng)車電機(jī)規(guī)范不超過20公里/小時(shí),但很多人,特別是摩托車、可以駕駛的速度超過這個(gè)限制達(dá)到40公里/小時(shí)。一個(gè)電動(dòng)車用戶的調(diào)查報(bào)告顯示，最高的速度從25 - 40公里/小時(shí)到25 - 50公里和范圍,需要6 -

62、 8小時(shí)給電池充電。電動(dòng)車電池充電,是一個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的插座,因此不需要新的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。大多數(shù)的電動(dòng)車用戶接受采訪，他們一般在家里晚上給電動(dòng)車充電，因?yàn)殡娰M(fèi)晚上便宜。在城市地區(qū),這通常意味著載著或電池或整個(gè)電動(dòng)車成多層次的公寓大樓。這也是常見到自行車被指控的經(jīng)常使用商店前面標(biāo)準(zhǔn)插座充電。</p><p><b>　　電動(dòng)車問題</b></p><p>　　安全問題是影響電動(dòng)車行

63、業(yè)迅速發(fā)展的重要因素。2006年11月,由于來(lái)自交通管理局的建議，廣州成為繼福州和珠海后中國(guó)第三個(gè)禁止電動(dòng)車的城市(新華網(wǎng)2006)。這主要是因?yàn)殡妱?dòng)車變得更快更安靜。操作時(shí),他們幾乎是不知不覺用聽覺,特別是對(duì)車輛,使電動(dòng)車用戶成為弱勢(shì)群體，危險(xiǎn)的行人。起草新的國(guó)家電動(dòng)車標(biāo)準(zhǔn)時(shí)電動(dòng)車的安全問題是重點(diǎn)考慮的,需要修改和激烈的爭(zhēng)論。</p><p>　　當(dāng)電動(dòng)自行車提供尾部排氣管零排放,75%的煤在中國(guó)，燃煤會(huì)排放污

64、染(櫻桃2006)。這個(gè)結(jié)果在增加,尤其是某些污染物質(zhì)排放二氧化硫,而這里面尤為顯著的是在中國(guó)的城市里。其他污染物很低,與替代模式相比(櫻桃2006)。在中國(guó)，鉛蓄電池生產(chǎn)和回收帶來(lái)嚴(yán)重的健康影響。因?yàn)閻毫拥纳a(chǎn)和資源回收工作在領(lǐng)導(dǎo)電池行業(yè),30-70%電池中的鉛消失在環(huán)境中。</p><p><b>　　中國(guó)電動(dòng)車工業(yè)</b></p><p>　　中國(guó)電動(dòng)車產(chǎn)業(yè)以最

65、小限度的政府財(cái)政支持和工業(yè)監(jiān)視、已經(jīng)發(fā)展成為全球最大的電動(dòng)車生產(chǎn)者。大多數(shù)生產(chǎn)商年產(chǎn)一到五萬(wàn)電動(dòng)車,但有六家公司,年生產(chǎn)20萬(wàn)電動(dòng)車。</p><p>　　原因之一,是因?yàn)閺V大企業(yè)在這產(chǎn)業(yè)組成部分技術(shù)成熟,網(wǎng)絡(luò)供應(yīng)商巨大,和制造成本相對(duì)較低，平均只有6%。采訪了大公司經(jīng)理，得知也有相當(dāng)?shù)闹R(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)盜版。因?yàn)榈瓦M(jìn)入壁壘以及散漫的知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)保護(hù),有許多無(wú)證電動(dòng)車制造商出售劣質(zhì)但價(jià)格便宜電動(dòng)車。幾個(gè)OEM預(yù)測(cè),在未來(lái)的幾年

66、中,電動(dòng)車數(shù)量和電動(dòng)車制造商數(shù)量將會(huì)大幅下降。當(dāng)前的電動(dòng)車公司來(lái)自多種工業(yè)背景。一些知名企業(yè)生產(chǎn)自行車、摩托車,電器、甚至玩具車,讓電動(dòng)車需求轉(zhuǎn)移了。有些公司已有60年以上,但大多數(shù)沒有開始生產(chǎn)電動(dòng)車直到2000年。許多公司沒有過去的制造經(jīng)驗(yàn)直接進(jìn)入電動(dòng)車制造業(yè)。</p><p>　　電動(dòng)車快速增長(zhǎng)的重要因素</p><p>　　電動(dòng)車成功的原因在第三階段可分為三個(gè)重要的發(fā)展因素:技術(shù)、經(jīng)

67、濟(jì)、和政策。</p><p><b>　　1、工藝因素</b></p><p>　　90年代以來(lái)，電池、馬達(dá)技術(shù)改進(jìn)極大地幫助擴(kuò)大了電動(dòng)車市場(chǎng)。電動(dòng)車的行駛范圍,達(dá)到60公里。</p><p>　　電動(dòng)車在中國(guó)銷售95%使用的是Pb-acid電池。Pb-acid電池在汽車和其他應(yīng)用上已經(jīng)使用了近一個(gè)世紀(jì),在過去的十年中的重要進(jìn)展使其更適合電動(dòng)車

68、。在第一階段的電動(dòng)車使用的是液體酸電池電解液而不是固定電解質(zhì)用于更多Pb-acid電池的今天。Liquid-type需要更多維護(hù),如果電池或騎自行車跌倒、電解液泄漏出去,會(huì)造成財(cái)產(chǎn)損失。大多數(shù)電動(dòng)車現(xiàn)在所使用的valve-regulated Pb-acid凝膠或吸收類型與玻璃墊電解質(zhì)丟失,從而,除了提高能量密度,也使其密封自然，減少電解液溢出。</p><p><b>　　2、經(jīng)濟(jì)因素</b>

69、;</p><p>　　中國(guó)電動(dòng)車快速增長(zhǎng)的另一個(gè)重要原因是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),主要因?yàn)殡S著收入水平的增長(zhǎng)，汽油價(jià)格的上升，而電動(dòng)車技術(shù)的成本卻在降低，這就導(dǎo)致了越來(lái)越多的人選擇電動(dòng)車。</p><p>　　在過去的十年里，中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)，人均收入也隨之快速增長(zhǎng)。從1997年到2004年,人均可支配收入增加82%。</p><p>　　在過去的6年燃油價(jià)格持續(xù)上升。汽油價(jià)

70、格在上海自2002年以來(lái)增加了45%,從3.9 到0.56美元/升(不含通貨膨脹)。消費(fèi)者購(gòu)買決策都是敏感的，燃料成本的增加因?yàn)樗鼜?qiáng)烈的需求。隨著油價(jià)上漲、電力價(jià)格下跌,在農(nóng)村地區(qū)，這個(gè)價(jià)格降低是由于中央政府在電力上進(jìn)行重大投資，在全國(guó)建設(shè)農(nóng)村基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。在此之前,電在農(nóng)村地區(qū)價(jià)格比市區(qū)高50%。這價(jià)格下降結(jié)合增長(zhǎng)的收入使農(nóng)村電動(dòng)車市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)大迅速.一個(gè)電動(dòng)車公司估計(jì)在2005年的農(nóng)村消費(fèi)者占20%。</p><p>

71、;<b>　　3、政策因素</b></p><p>　　在過去的十多年來(lái)，中國(guó)迅速城市化(農(nóng)村人口向城市大量流動(dòng)),這是社會(huì)的產(chǎn)物,經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治的變化,也是是電動(dòng)車增長(zhǎng)另外一個(gè)因素。城市化已導(dǎo)致城市比低成本周邊住宅需求的郊野的交通更加擁擠。在大多數(shù)城市，由于公共交通服務(wù)擁擠不堪,緩慢的擁堵,也是電動(dòng)車普及的原因。公共汽車還固有的路線，從起始點(diǎn)到目的地。由于旅行長(zhǎng)度延伸和家庭需求快捷、輕松,承載

72、模式，傳統(tǒng)的自行車也變得越來(lái)越不適合。調(diào)查結(jié)果表明,電動(dòng)車用戶正經(jīng)歷比自行車更大范圍和更少的旅行時(shí)間。旅行平均長(zhǎng)度和頻率高于10% - 20%自行車;平均操作速度高上海和昆明31-35%。</p><p><b>　　結(jié)論</b></p><p>　　電動(dòng)車行業(yè)盡管在80年代和90年代早期掙扎了兩次,直到90年代晚期才有成長(zhǎng)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。到現(xiàn)在的由于組合的經(jīng)濟(jì),技術(shù)、政治因

73、素,總結(jié)了如下:</p><p>　　1。在1990年代晚期，電動(dòng)車技術(shù),特別是電機(jī)、電池、有顯著的提高。簡(jiǎn)單的技術(shù)供應(yīng)商,猶如一幅巨大以及薄弱的IP的保護(hù)使各國(guó)電動(dòng)車制造商進(jìn)入產(chǎn)業(yè),加快競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和價(jià)格下降。</p><p>　　2。由于國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,城鎮(zhèn)居民家庭收入和花在交通上的比例均有所上升很大。</p><p>　　3。電動(dòng)車物價(jià)下跌了,汽油價(jià)格上漲和電力價(jià)格在

74、農(nóng)村地區(qū)下降使電動(dòng)車更有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,替代汽油燃料的摩托車和汽車。</p><p>　　4。國(guó)家和地方政府政策出于能源和空氣質(zhì)量問題為電動(dòng)車增長(zhǎng)創(chuàng)造了有利的條件，大城市的中心禁止汽油動(dòng)力摩托車。</p><p>　　5。國(guó)家電動(dòng)車標(biāo)準(zhǔn),以獲得和靈活創(chuàng)造了豐富的指導(dǎo)方針機(jī)會(huì)創(chuàng)造電動(dòng)車s制造商吸引更多的用戶,即scooter-style電動(dòng)車。</p><p>　　6。由于城

75、市化進(jìn)程中,城市形態(tài)的變化，表現(xiàn)為交通方式擁擠的增加。而消費(fèi)者需要的是旅行時(shí)間的減少和旅行長(zhǎng)度的增加，這使旅行很難。</p><p><b>　　建議</b></p><p>　　在初期階段，電動(dòng)車的許多負(fù)面影響可以通過技術(shù)改進(jìn)(特別是越來(lái)越多的高級(jí)電池技術(shù))進(jìn)行減輕,改善交通運(yùn)營(yíng)策略設(shè)計(jì)、性能指標(biāo)和實(shí)施規(guī)格。鼓勵(lì)電動(dòng)車和自行車的發(fā)展使用，減少汽車的數(shù)量，才是正確的方

76、向。政府和用戶需要解決電動(dòng)車制作、使用和技術(shù)方面的問題，而不是禁止電動(dòng)車產(chǎn)業(yè)。這可能使這個(gè)模式在未來(lái)得到更好的發(fā)展,能顯著的影響交通系統(tǒng)和模式的選擇。</p><p>　　展望未來(lái),技術(shù)分析顯示中國(guó)將新增加4.5億的自行車用戶,2200萬(wàn)電動(dòng)車用戶。在小城市和農(nóng)村,電動(dòng)車比例將上升，最終取代自行車。中國(guó)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)也對(duì)其他發(fā)展中國(guó)家(例如。印度、越南),越來(lái)越多的城市交通問題，有涓滴效應(yīng)。隨著未來(lái)科技的演化和趨勢(shì)，在中