養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)外文翻譯--中國、新加坡和韓國的養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)政策（節(jié)選）

1、<p>　　中文2815字,2000單詞，1.2萬英文字符</p><p>　　出處：Williamson J B, Price M, Shen C. Pension policy in China, Singapore, and South Korea: An assessment of the potential value of the notional defined contribution

2、model[J]. Journal of Aging Studies, 2012, 26(1):79–89.</p><p>　　Pension Policy in China, Singapore, and South Korea: An Assessment of the Potential Value of the Notional Defined Contribution Model</p>

3、<p>　　John B. Williamson a,*, Meghan Price a, Ce Shen b</p><p><b>　　Abstract</b></p><p>　　The rate of population aging is increasing in the developing world and the trend is pa

4、rticularly dramatic in East Asia. One consequence is sharp increases in old-­‐age dependency ratios which has major implications for the sustainability of current public pension schemes. These trends are pushing pen

5、sion policy experts in many of these countries to search for new pension models that are more suited to the increased demographic pressures they will be facing in the decades ahead. In this article w</p><p>

6、　　Key Words: public pension policy; notional defined contribution; China; South Korea; Singapore; social security</p><p>　　Rapid population aging is underway in the OECD countries and in most other countries

7、 around the world. With each passing decade concern is growing about how to assure adequate old-age security for an ever-increasing number of old people. This demographic trend has a variety of long-term policy implicati

8、ons. Our focus will be on one of the most important, pension policy. In many countries old-age pension schemes that seemed to be working relatively smoothly are starting to falter, due in part to </p><p>　　W

9、hile population aging is underway around the world, this demographic trend and the implications of the trend for pension policy are particularly pressing in East Asia,. For purposes of this paper that designation should

10、be understood to also include the nations of South East Asia that are sometimes classified as East Asian as well as those further to the north that are always classified as East Asian. There is not full agreement among e

11、xperts and international agencies as to which countries sho</p><p>　　We will be asking whether it would make sense for policy makers in these countries to give serious consideration to the NDC model. In most

12、 countries (Mongolia is the one exception) that have introduced an NDC based pension, it is included as one pillar in a multi-pillar national pension scheme. For this reason here we will be addressing a more limited que

13、stion: would it make sense in any of these three countries to add an NDC pillar to the existing pension scheme? While our focus is on assessin</p><p>　　We begin with a discussion of some evidence about the s

14、eriousness of the demographic pressures that all three of these East Asian countries are facing. The statistics presented in Table 1 are author calculations using country level data drawn from two databases (U.S. Census

15、Bureau, 2010; World Bank, 2006). The statistics show that the percentage of the world’s population age 65 and over has increased substantially since 1960 and suggest that this trend will continue in the decades ahead. In

16、 this</p><p>　　Despite these two advantages, and in part related to them, the country is already facing some serious issues related to providing adequate retirement security for residents who are already old

17、 (Moon, 2008). China’s somewhat unique decentralized public/employer variant of the PAYG-DB model for urban workers can be traced back to 1951. Between 1997 and 2005, a number of major structural changes were made that l

18、argely framed the current multi- pillar scheme, including the introduction of a substant</p><p>　　Conclusion</p><p>　　Our goal has been to assess the potential utility and feasibility of an NDC

19、pillar as part of future pension reform efforts in each of three East Asian countries (China, South Korea, and Singapore) currently facing rapid population aging and rapid rates of increase in the old age dependency rati

20、o. By combining various elements of PAYG-DB and FDC schemes, NDC pillars attempt to address some of the shortcomings of traditional PAYG- DB pension schemes (South Korea), partially privatized pension sys</p><

21、p>　　By ensuring a relatively flat contribution rate over the long run, the introduction of an NDC pillar in South Korea would help to spread the pension burden linked to projected rapid population aging more evenly ac

22、ross generations.China could benefit from the introduction of an NDC pillar as an alternative to the “funded” individual accounts currently in place as part of the urban pension scheme, accounts that often go unfunded. I

23、t would also be a way to assure that contributions to the individua</p><p>　　The unfunded individual accounts currently in place in many areas in China are in some ways a de facto variant of an NDC pillar, b

24、ut without a number of the safe guards and benefits of the model as it has evolved in countries such as Sweden (Sundén, 2009). Given the risks associated with funded individual accounts when implemented in countries

25、 with relatively immature financial markets, it would seem possible that a gradual shift from the FDC model to the NDC model would make sense in China, at </p><p>　　If a well-designed NDC pillar were to be i

26、ntroduced in Singapore, it could offer a way to help deal with the problem of retirement income adequacy. But given the country’s long-term commitment to the provident fund model and minimal government involvement in soc

27、ial welfare issues, it would seem very unlikely that policy makers in Singapore will give serious consideration to the introduction of an NDC pillar. While an NDC pillar would discourage the early withdrawal of savings f

28、or other investmen</p><p>　　The NDC model may become both politically and economically viable in China very soon and possibly in South Korea as well a few decades from now. While the introduction of an NDC p

29、illar as part of Singapore’s CPF could have real benefits, we do not expect to see an NDC pillar introduced in Singapore in the foreseeable future, given the current pension system which firmly embodies individualistic s

30、ocial security values. While our focus has been on China, South Korea, and Singapore, we would argue </p><p>　　中國、新加坡和韓國的養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)政策：評估潛在價(jià)值的名義賬戶制模式</p><p>　　摘要：很多發(fā)達(dá)國家以及世界各地的工業(yè)化國家的人口都正在迅速老齡化。在東亞,養(yǎng)老撫養(yǎng)比

31、率的增加速度尤為迅速,并且是許多國家的專家研究的一個(gè)主要影響因素,旨在改革其現(xiàn)有的公共退休金計(jì)劃來使他們能更好地面對所面臨的人口和經(jīng)濟(jì)方面的壓力。在這篇文章中,我們帶著疑問,名義賬戶制(以下簡稱NDC)是否有潛在的實(shí)用性,以及是否值得我們給予亞洲東部三國——韓國、中國、新加坡在NDC討論中更多的關(guān)注。這些國家之所以被選中,是因?yàn)樗麄兲峁┝艘粋€(gè)環(huán)境,在這個(gè)環(huán)境中,可以對NDC模式的利弊與現(xiàn)在亞洲東部應(yīng)用或者執(zhí)行更廣泛的幾種可替代模式相比較

32、。我們疑惑對NDC式的使用可以將目前存在的幾種模式的哪個(gè)局限性充分顯露出來。我們得出這樣的結(jié)論:NDC模式能給中國提供更多的效用,并且為新加坡提供的效用是最少的。</p><p>　　關(guān)鍵詞：養(yǎng)老保障政策 NDC計(jì)劃 中國 韓國 新加坡 社會保障</p><p>　　快速的人口老齡化是在經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織國家中和世界其他國家普遍出現(xiàn)的現(xiàn)象。世界各國在過去的幾十年中越來越關(guān)注如何保證

33、足夠養(yǎng)老基金來對應(yīng)越來越多的老年人。這里面有各種各樣的長期人口趨勢政策的影響。我們的重點(diǎn)將是最重要的，即養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)政策。在許多國家，養(yǎng)老計(jì)劃，似乎工作比較順利，部分原因是由于當(dāng)前和預(yù)測的人口趨勢和部分系統(tǒng)成熟。在新的養(yǎng)老金制度的初期，特別是那些基于在很大程度上是由現(xiàn)收現(xiàn)付確定給付（payg-db）模型，相對較少的人有資格獲得養(yǎng)老金而更多的是做貢獻(xiàn)。但由于這些系統(tǒng)成熟和養(yǎng)老金的資格的工人數(shù)量急劇增加，有關(guān)可持續(xù)的問題開始出現(xiàn)。近年來，這些趨

34、勢推動養(yǎng)老金專家世界各地尋找替代模型更適合于其人口世界在經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的背景下老化，一批養(yǎng)老保障的新方法正在研究。在這篇文章中我們將探討其中的一些在一個(gè)相比于目前的我們認(rèn)為值得特別關(guān)注重視的方法，實(shí)繳費(fèi)確定型（NDC）的方法。</p><p>　　人口老齡化是世界各地都存在的現(xiàn)象，這種人口趨勢和趨勢的影響?zhàn)B老保險(xiǎn)政策尤為迫切。我們有很多理由選擇中國，韓國，和新加坡作為我們分析的對象。一些福利國家理論的觀點(diǎn)是這些國家說

35、明三種不同的福利國家已在新加坡地區(qū)成為主導(dǎo)模式代表公積金集群，韓國代表社會保險(xiǎn)集群，與中國代表三分之一“進(jìn)化”的方法，得出的思想一致的。作為我們的首要目標(biāo)是比較NDC模型的主要替代了養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)政策，我們喜歡這組國家在很大程度上是因?yàn)樗赡芑谌齻€(gè)國家，探索潛在效用對NDC模式相對于其他所有主要的養(yǎng)老。目前在東亞模式的payg-db模型（韓國和中國），公積金模式（新加坡）的資助，繳費(fèi)確定型（FDC）模型（中國），和非繳費(fèi)型社會養(yǎng)老模式（南韓

36、國和中國）更加方便；我們選擇的另一個(gè)原因是這三個(gè)國家都急需處理非常嚴(yán)重的財(cái)政壓力與快速人口老齡化之間的矛盾。對于大多數(shù)東亞國家這是一個(gè)重大的問題，尤其是這三個(gè)國家，面臨的問題更加嚴(yán)重。他們在東亞國家之間就面對人口快速老齡化的后果（見表1）。我們選擇了快速老齡化的國家基于快速的人口老齡化以及形式最緊迫的國家。這三個(gè)國家也顯示著變化的大小（中國1300000000，韓國49000000，新</p><p>　　我們會

37、問這些政策意義是否在這些國家決策者中認(rèn)真考慮了NDC模式。在大多數(shù)國家（蒙古是個(gè)例外）介紹了基礎(chǔ)養(yǎng)老金的NDC，它包括作為多支柱的國家養(yǎng)老金計(jì)劃的支柱之一。對于這個(gè)原因我們將在更有限的問題：它會在這三個(gè)國家添加一個(gè)NDC柱現(xiàn)有的養(yǎng)老金計(jì)劃？而我們的重點(diǎn)是評估一個(gè)國家的支柱的潛在效用，我們的討論并不限于NDC的方法中的單獨(dú)一種。如將變得明顯，我們將建議在一些國家的需要量可能是很大的，甚至更大，考慮引入一種新的社會養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)支柱或在現(xiàn)有的社會

38、養(yǎng)老金的變化。在這篇文章中我們將使用術(shù)語“社會養(yǎng)老”指的是以非繳費(fèi)型養(yǎng)老金，以及將有兩個(gè)社會養(yǎng)老金范疇，普遍的社會養(yǎng)老金和通過社會養(yǎng)老金。</p><p>　　我們開始討論一些有關(guān)證據(jù)的嚴(yán)重性的人口壓力，所有這三個(gè)亞洲國家面臨的。表1的統(tǒng)計(jì)使用的是國家一級的數(shù)據(jù)來自作者的計(jì)算兩個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)庫（美國人口普查局，2010；2006世界銀行，）。統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字顯示，世界人口65歲及以在上在1960年大幅增加并認(rèn)為這種趨勢將繼續(xù)在幾

39、十年后保持上升趨勢。在這張表格中我們還包括養(yǎng)老相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)比（以下簡稱OADR）作為第二測量人口老齡化。OADR是65歲及以上人口除以勞動年齡人口（15–64）。這提供了總的估計(jì)，盡管是一個(gè)粗略的估計(jì)。</p><p>　　盡管有這些優(yōu)勢，這個(gè)國家已經(jīng)開始面臨著一些嚴(yán)重的問題，中國的有些獨(dú)特的payg-db分散公共/雇主的變體包括城鎮(zhèn)職工可追溯到1951年，1997和2005年，一批重大結(jié)構(gòu)性變化了基本框架，目前多支

40、柱的方案，包括大量的投資定義的貢獻(xiàn)介紹（FDC）組件（Impavido，胡，&Li，2009）。直到最近，中國人口中有非常小的農(nóng)村養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)，但這種情況正在改變，因?yàn)檗r(nóng)村養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)計(jì)劃正在實(shí)施，而對于那些目前退休年齡，很大程度上是基于普遍的社會養(yǎng)老模型（威廉姆森，沈，楊，2009）。新加坡的系統(tǒng)，可以追溯到1955，是世界上最成功的國家強(qiáng)制性公積金計(jì)劃（亞瑟&年輕，1997；狄克遜，1993）。</p><

41、;p><b>　　結(jié)論</b></p><p>　　我們的目標(biāo)是評價(jià)一個(gè)NDC支柱的潛在效用，以對東亞三個(gè)國家（中國，韓國，新加坡）未來養(yǎng)老金改革作出貢獻(xiàn)。這三個(gè)國家目前正處于快速老齡化養(yǎng)老撫養(yǎng)比率高速增長時(shí)期。結(jié)合PAYG-DB和FDC計(jì)劃的多個(gè)因素，NDC支柱視圖解決傳統(tǒng)的PAYG-DB養(yǎng)老金計(jì)劃（韓國）、部分私有化的養(yǎng)老金系統(tǒng)(中國)、公積金計(jì)劃（新加坡）的一些缺陷。</p

42、><p>　　NDC支柱的引用，以替代有資金支持的個(gè)人賬戶，這些賬戶目前作為城市的養(yǎng)老金計(jì)劃的一部分正在實(shí)施，這些賬戶通常沒有資金支持，中國將從這個(gè)NPC支柱的引入中收益。這也確保個(gè)人繳費(fèi)趕上未來工資水平的增長。我們擔(dān)心的是在許多省份，現(xiàn)行政策分流了職工本來用于資助個(gè)人賬戶繳費(fèi)而用去另外的用途。這將會嚴(yán)重削弱公眾對養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度的支持，并會使逃稅現(xiàn)象增加。另一點(diǎn)值得關(guān)注的是，政府難以被合理的比例來支付養(yǎng)老金。</

43、p><p>　　目前在中國許多地方都無資金支持的個(gè)人賬戶，在某種方式上NDC支柱的變體，但是缺少安全防護(hù)措施，正和瑞典演變那樣。鑒于其在許多相對不成熟的財(cái)政市場實(shí)施時(shí)和個(gè)人賬戶聯(lián)系的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，在中國，從FDC模式轉(zhuǎn)為NDC模式可能具有一定的價(jià)值。然而中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的過快發(fā)展，F(xiàn)DC支柱將會發(fā)揮一定的作用，但如果是以保障老年人退休保障可能會出現(xiàn)問題。</p><p>　　如果一個(gè)設(shè)計(jì)好的NDC模式引入新加

44、坡。它可以提供一種方式幫助處理退休收入是否充足。但由于該國長期致力于公積金模式，在社會福利方面政府少參與，可能會對引入NDC模式慎重考慮。盡管NDC模式會阻止其他投資，并有助于防范養(yǎng)老金的不足，但這些都是要付出一定的代價(jià)。此外NDC模式不會給新加坡的覆蓋缺口解決一個(gè)方案。</p><p>　　NDC無論在中國政治還是經(jīng)濟(jì)上都具有一定的可行性。新加坡可能要幾十年，然而鑒于其目前的社會福利政策，在新加坡引入NDC模式