世界需求和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力對(duì)出口和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響外文翻譯

1、<p><b>　　中文3450字</b></p><p>　　本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯原文</p><p>　　外文題目：Effects of World Demand and Competitiveness on Exports and Economic Growth </p&g

2、t;<p>　　出 處：Growth and Change (Vol.25,Winter 1994,pp.3-24) </p><p>　　作 者： JESSIE POON </p><p><b>　　原 文：</b></p><p&

3、gt;　　Effects of World Demand and Competitiveness on Exports and Economic Growth</p><p>　　Introduction</p><p>　　The role of exports in economic growth has been much debated since the 1950s. Two v

4、iewpoints characterize the development literature on the relationship between exports and economic growth. The first considers that economic growth is a consequence of favorable internal and supply-related factors. Expor

5、ts promote growth because they stimulate the efficient use of these factors for economic production and enable a country or region to remain competitme (Bhagwati 1988; Kravis 1973; Riedel 1987). </p><p>　　

6、One outcome of the polarization of the literature is that regions trying to develop are confronted with development models which often assume dualistic forms. For example "inward" versus "outward" tra

7、de orientation, or, "export" versus "import" substitution strategies.' Broadly, these dualisms are circum- scribed in what has come to be known as the "export optimism-export pessi- mism&quo

8、t; debate(Bhagwati 1988). The need to collapse the export optimism-export pessimism dualism for a more integrative</p><p>　　This paper examines the relationship between export growth and economic growth with

9、in an integrative framework. It argues that developing countries (abbreviated to LDCs) are rather differentiated in their economic structures so that the relationship between exports and economic growth is likely to var

10、y. Thus, it is unlikely that the above relationship may be fully explained by one viewpoint. Two variables, world demand and competitiveness, capturing demand-oriented as well supply-oriented expl</p><p>　　

11、The paper is organized as follows: the next section documents the theoritical and empirical underpinnings of export optimism as well as export pessimism , and their resulting polarized positions . The model for investiga

12、ting integration is introduced next, followed by a discussion of the data and results. The paper ends with a summary of the findings and their implications. </p><p>　　The Exports-growth Debate</p>&l

13、t;p>　　The question as to whether economic growth may be rapidly promoted through exports is characterized by two schools of thought: </p><p>　　Export optimism. Export optimists consider trade to be an eng

14、ine of growth and place much confidence in the role of prices to allocate resources efficiently. Countries or regions that are able to compete in their exports enhance their economic growth because this increases product

15、ivity and specialization, and improves efficiency through better resource allocation. Drawing on the principles of classical comparative advantage as well as vent-for-surplus and staple theories (see for example Myint&

16、lt;/p><p>　　Exports help to overcome a country or region's limited market and provide an outlet for the surplus products that are not consumed domestically. Idle or surplus resources are absorbed into expor

17、tables which have the effect of stimulating economic growth (Myint 1958). Engaging in export producUOn therefore ensures greater capacity utilization through economies of scale {Balassa 1985). It has also been maintain

18、ed that economies that are oriented towards exports produce a higher level of industri</p><p>　　Export optimists support their position by drawing extensively from econometric studies relating economic gro

19、wth to some indices of export performance under implicit assumptions of favorable supply conditions. Several of these studies concluded that economic performance is highly correlated to export growth (Balassa 1978; 1985;

20、 Dodaro 1993; Emery 1967; Feder 1982; Fosu 1990; Kavoussi 1984; Maizels 1968; Michalopoulos and Jay 1973; Rana 1988; Syron and Walsh 1968; Tyler 1981). The meteoric ri</p><p>　　Export pessimism. Export pe

21、ssimists put less faith in the market, arguing that the ability of developing countries to export is constrained by the external market. They maintain that the hnk between exports and growth (abbreviated to exports-growt

22、h) weakened considerably during the oil crisis years of the 1970s due to a contraction in demand especially for LDC exports. Thus, trade enhances growth only when the external demand is favorable. Export pessimists advo

23、cate more inward-oriented strate</p><p>　　One of the earliest researchers to highlight the influence of the external environment on trade performance was Nurkse (1961). Contrasting trade patterns between the

24、 nineteenth and twentieth centuries, he argued that economic growth in the industrialized core had not resulted in a proportionate increase in demand for LDC exports. Echoing the same sentiments two decades later, Lewis

25、(1980) points out that since most of the exports of developing countries are destined for markets in developed coun</p><p>　　The above is characteristic of dependency writings such as those of Cardoso and Fa

26、letto (1979). In this case, structural differences between a developed and developing region are seen to determine their asymmetrical trading relationship. Some empirical support for the position of the export pessimists

27、 is provided by studies on the role of external demand on the export performances of developing countries (e.g. Kavoussi 1985; Singer and Gray 1988). These reports indicate that export earnings decl</p><p>　

28、　The role of the external demand assumes even greater significance when the rise of global protectionism is considered. The continued absorptive capacity of the international market for the exports of developing countrie

29、s in the face of global reswcturing is questioned by Cline (1982) for example. Cline concluded that if several developing countries were to follow in the footsteps of the exportoriented Asian NICs, it would provoke a wid

30、espread protectionist response from the developed countries. </p><p>　　An integrative perspective. The debate between export optimists and pessimists have adopted rather polarized views so that policy recom

31、mendations have also been conflicting. The dualistic framework of the export promolion/outward-orientation versus import substitution/inward orientation models reflects this. The empincal literature has also not provide

32、d a clear resolution of the debate. For instance in investigating the exports-growth relationship, Balassa (1985) reports a higher parametric va</p><p>　　An important source of the conflict between the expor

33、t optimists and the export pessimists is the degree of openness which is deemed to be desirable during the process of economic development. Import substitution regimes tend to be characterized by high levels of protectio

34、n for its producers (e.g. quantitafive restrictions or tariffs on imports) in order to avoid the vagaries of external demand. Export optimists support a higher degree of openness because it enables a country or region t

35、o find </p><p>　　However, Streeten (1982) argues that the process of national production is often a mix of the two strategies. Bruton (1989) has pointed out that mdustrialization through import substitution

36、is credited with building up the capital goods sector as well as technological maturity. Import substitution is thought to pave the way for successful export performance because a body of knowledge is acquired over time

37、by targeting production towards the domestic market before exposing the products to an int</p><p>　　Frank, Kim, and Westphal's (1975) study of the highly export-oriented South Korea estimated that import

38、 substitution and export expansion both contributed positively to the growth of manufactured output between the 1950s and 1960s. The creation of comparative advantage in the petrochemical industry by the Korean governmen

39、t is a good example of the import substitution of intermediate products. This provided the basis for newer phases of Korean industrial growth and exports in the late 1970s. Gwyn</p><p>　　The integration of i

40、mport substitution and export promotion in regional or national production appears therefore to be crucial in the development process. Balassa's (1981) theory of the stages-of-development is especially relevant here

41、as economic progress is conceived in several stages: an "easy" stage of import substitution engaging in the replacement of the imports of nondurable consumer goods. During this period, external economies are ge

42、nerated in the form of labor training and entrepreneur</p><p>　　Integrating import substitution and induced growth is influenced by both country's competitiveness. Ho's (1984) export promotion impli

43、es that trade-induced growth is influenced by both the the levels of external demand and a study of LDCs' exports for instance showed that the gains from trade for the NICs is associated with their abilities to maint

44、ain their export competitiveness globally. Where external demand has been poor, the more successful performers have been able to keep or even increas</p><p>　　This paper therefore argues for a convergence of

45、 the perspectives underlying the export optimism-export pessimism schism. From the paper's viewpoint, the contribution of exports to economic growth is affected by both external demand as well as a country or region&

46、#39;s competitiveness. </p><p><b>　　譯 文：</b></p><p>　　世界需求和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力對(duì)出口和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響</p><p><b>　　導(dǎo)言</b></p><p>　　出口對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用在20世紀(jì)50年代以來(lái)一直被爭(zhēng)論。出口與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系的

47、發(fā)展文獻(xiàn)有兩個(gè)代表性觀點(diǎn)。第一種觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是內(nèi)部和供應(yīng)相關(guān)的有利因素的結(jié)果。出口促進(jìn)增長(zhǎng)，因?yàn)樗鼈兇碳そ?jīng)濟(jì)生產(chǎn)因素的有效使用，使一個(gè)國(guó)家或地區(qū)保持競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力（巴格瓦蒂1988年；卡拉維斯1973年；里德爾1987年）。在第二觀點(diǎn)里，出口帶動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的成功是說(shuō)基于一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮的核心區(qū)域的有利貿(mào)易環(huán)境。這種需求為導(dǎo)向的觀點(diǎn)表明，預(yù)計(jì)核心地域的 出口比需求不會(huì)擴(kuò)大地太快（例如劉易斯1980年；納科斯1961年；普里比1962年）。兩者觀點(diǎn)

48、的不同點(diǎn)在于出口和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間關(guān)系的確定和聯(lián)系機(jī)制給出的權(quán)重。</p><p>　　文獻(xiàn)兩極分化的一個(gè)結(jié)果是，地區(qū)試圖發(fā)展往往采用二元形式發(fā)展模型。例如“走進(jìn)來(lái)”與“走出去”貿(mào)易方向，或“出口”與“進(jìn)口”替代戰(zhàn)略。從廣義上講，這些二元論被已經(jīng)稱為“出口樂(lè)觀與出口悲觀”的爭(zhēng)論限制（巴格瓦蒂1988年）。因?yàn)榫C合觀點(diǎn)瓦解“出口樂(lè)觀與出口悲觀”二元論的需要已經(jīng)被斯特（1982年）提高。越來(lái)越多的文獻(xiàn)也表明，兩個(gè)觀點(diǎn)綜合

49、的優(yōu)點(diǎn)值得仔細(xì)看看（如Gereffi,1989）。</p><p>　　本文在一個(gè)綜合框架內(nèi)探討出口增長(zhǎng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系。它認(rèn)為，發(fā)展中國(guó)家（簡(jiǎn)稱LDCs）在經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)方面有相當(dāng)區(qū)別的，因此出口增長(zhǎng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系可能會(huì)有所不同。因此，不太可能由一個(gè)觀點(diǎn)完整地解釋上述關(guān)系。兩個(gè)變量，世界需求和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，鎖定需求為導(dǎo)向以及供給為導(dǎo)向的解釋的出口增長(zhǎng)與收入增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系的機(jī)制首先建立。這兩個(gè)變量納入了出口增長(zhǎng)模式還有

50、前述研究關(guān)系的影響。分析的主要單位是發(fā)展中國(guó)家，雖然這項(xiàng)研究也關(guān)系到區(qū)域發(fā)展。特別是發(fā)展中國(guó)家可能被設(shè)想為區(qū)域單位，除了許多在前面控制經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的國(guó)家級(jí)做的決定。</p><p>　　本文結(jié)構(gòu)如下：下一部分是出口悲觀以及出口樂(lè)觀的理論和實(shí)證基礎(chǔ)，和它們所帶來(lái)的兩級(jí)分化的立場(chǎng)。該模型一體化的綜合是，通過(guò)對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)和結(jié)果的討論介紹下面部分。本文最后以調(diào)查和他們的意義總結(jié)結(jié)尾。</p><p><

51、;b>　　出口增長(zhǎng)爭(zhēng)論</b></p><p>　　經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是否會(huì)通過(guò)出口快速增長(zhǎng)這個(gè)問(wèn)題被兩所學(xué)校的想法所描述：</p><p><b>　?。ㄒ唬?、出口樂(lè)觀</b></p><p>　　樂(lè)觀主義者認(rèn)為出口貿(mào)易成為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)，價(jià)格的作用很大，國(guó)家或地區(qū)有能力在出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，提高他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，因?yàn)檫@可以增加生產(chǎn)力和促進(jìn)專業(yè)

52、化，并通過(guò)有效地分配資源更好地提高資源配置的效率。古典的繪圖以比較優(yōu)勢(shì)的原則，及通風(fēng)的過(guò)剩和主食的理論（例如見敏1958年，北美1955年，1961年），出口樂(lè)觀者指出潛在收益的出現(xiàn)是由于貿(mào)易的結(jié)果。出口樂(lè)觀解釋出口和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與供給方面各因素之間的聯(lián)系如自然資源、企業(yè)家素質(zhì)和熟練地勞動(dòng)力。貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用在于擴(kuò)大勞動(dòng)力和資金供給，而技術(shù)進(jìn)步提高生產(chǎn)率（里德爾，1987年）。在促進(jìn)出口等已普及的前提下，實(shí)施外向型貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)略，使經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增

53、長(zhǎng)和發(fā)展。</p><p>　　出口有助于克服一個(gè)國(guó)家或地區(qū)的有限市場(chǎng)，并提供一個(gè)剩余未供國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)品出口。閑置或多余的資源吸收到出口商品有刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)（敏，1958年）的影響。從事出口生產(chǎn)，因此確保通過(guò)規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)（巴拉薩，1985年）更大的產(chǎn)能利用率。也有人認(rèn)為，經(jīng)濟(jì)體對(duì)出口產(chǎn)生的工業(yè)水平（聯(lián)合拉美經(jīng)委會(huì)、工發(fā)組織工業(yè)發(fā)展導(dǎo)向部門，1986年）生成更高，因?yàn)閲?guó)際消費(fèi)模式曝光優(yōu)質(zhì)的產(chǎn)品。其他令人信服的理由，包括由發(fā)展中

54、國(guó)家需要賺取外匯，以資助工業(yè)化的進(jìn)口，以及豐富的勞動(dòng)力的部署，以便它使就業(yè)和工資增長(zhǎng)（克魯格曼，1988年）。</p><p>　　在出口樂(lè)觀者的支持下，借鑒與提供的有利條件，出口業(yè)績(jī)指標(biāo)計(jì)量隱含的體現(xiàn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究的一些廣泛的立場(chǎng)。這些研究的結(jié)論是，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)表現(xiàn)與出口增長(zhǎng)密切相關(guān)的（巴拉薩，1985年等）。在迅速崛起的亞洲新興工業(yè)化國(guó)家也已經(jīng)與他們的“大量出口”發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略（巴拉薩，1988年；休斯，198

55、9年；克魯格曼，1985年；里德爾，1988年）。所有這些計(jì)劃，經(jīng)過(guò)世界銀行（1987年，1993年）批準(zhǔn)，作為發(fā)展中國(guó)家的主要發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略來(lái)促進(jìn)出口。</p><p><b>　?。ǘ⒊隹诒^</b></p><p>　　出口悲觀主義者對(duì)投放市場(chǎng)信心不足，認(rèn)為發(fā)展中國(guó)家的出口能力受到外部市場(chǎng)的制約。他們認(rèn)為，出口和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的聯(lián)系（簡(jiǎn)稱出口增長(zhǎng)），在最不發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)，

56、尤其是出口需求萎縮的石油危機(jī)相當(dāng)嚴(yán)重，在20世紀(jì)70年代削弱了。因而，加強(qiáng)貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)只有當(dāng)外部需求大時(shí)是有利的。出口悲觀主義者主張更多內(nèi)向性的戰(zhàn)略，即進(jìn)口替代作為主要的發(fā)展模式。進(jìn)口替代被認(rèn)為是有利的，因?yàn)樗鼫p少了一個(gè)國(guó)家的脆弱性及國(guó)際（普雷維什，1968年）經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)。</p><p>　　最早研究者之一（納克斯，1961年）研究貿(mào)易外部環(huán)境影響。對(duì)比與19世紀(jì)和20世紀(jì)的貿(mào)易模式，他認(rèn)為在工業(yè)化為核心的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)并

57、沒有使最不發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家出口產(chǎn)品的需求相應(yīng)增加。同樣的觀點(diǎn)對(duì)應(yīng)二十年后，劉易斯（1980年）指出，由于 發(fā)展中國(guó)家的出口產(chǎn)品大多是以發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家市場(chǎng)為目的地，這產(chǎn)生了不利影響，時(shí)工業(yè)化國(guó)家自70年代中期的經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩。因此國(guó)家的出口表現(xiàn)依賴于工業(yè)化的核心地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)條件。</p><p>　　以上的特點(diǎn)是依賴著作，如卡多佐和法萊特（1979年）的項(xiàng)目。在這種情況下，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和發(fā)展中國(guó)家地區(qū)之間被視為不對(duì)稱的結(jié)構(gòu)性差異的貿(mào)易關(guān)系。

58、一些出口的悲觀論者的立場(chǎng)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)指出 ，在對(duì)發(fā)展中國(guó)家的出口實(shí)績(jī)的外部需求的作用研究中（如凱沃西，1985年等）。這些報(bào)告表明，當(dāng)外部需求的水平下降時(shí)，出口收入大幅減少。</p><p>　　當(dāng)外部需求得更大時(shí)，對(duì)全球貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義上升考慮，繼續(xù)在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)大吸收能力，在全球結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整面臨著危機(jī)，對(duì)發(fā)展中國(guó)家的出口產(chǎn)品更是提出質(zhì)疑（克萊恩，1982年）?？巳R恩認(rèn)為，如果一些發(fā)展中國(guó)家要追隨的腳步出口為導(dǎo)向的亞洲新型工業(yè)

59、化國(guó)家，這會(huì)引起從發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家普遍的保護(hù)主義反應(yīng)。這使發(fā)展中國(guó)家發(fā)展的能力對(duì)貿(mào)易進(jìn)一步限制。</p><p>　?。ㄈ⒁粋€(gè)綜合性的觀點(diǎn)</p><p>　　出口樂(lè)觀主義者和悲觀主義者之間的辯論通過(guò)了相當(dāng)大的分歧意見，是政策的建議也反應(yīng)不一。在出口推廣的二元論框架、外向型方向與進(jìn)口替代、內(nèi)向型模式反映了這一點(diǎn)。實(shí)證文獻(xiàn)也沒有提供一個(gè)明確的決議進(jìn)行辯論。對(duì)于調(diào)查的出口與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系，巴拉

60、薩（1985年）報(bào)告，在1973年的石油危機(jī)期間，存在一個(gè)較高的產(chǎn)品出口參數(shù)值。沃（1988年）的研究與巴拉薩的結(jié)論相抵觸，出口進(jìn)行后，石油危機(jī)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生積極的影響較少。</p><p>　　一個(gè)出口樂(lè)觀主義者和出口悲觀者之間沖突的重要原因是開放程度，認(rèn)為在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展進(jìn)程是可取的。進(jìn)口替代制度往往受保護(hù)其生產(chǎn)的高層次這一特點(diǎn)（例如數(shù)量限制或進(jìn)口關(guān)稅），以避免外部需求波動(dòng)的影響。出口樂(lè)觀主義者支持開放程度較高，因

61、為它使一個(gè)國(guó)家或地區(qū)找到其相對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)，從而避免高成本，低效率的活動(dòng)，使其更具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。</p><p>　　然而，斯特（1982）認(rèn)為國(guó)家生產(chǎn)過(guò)程往往是兩個(gè)戰(zhàn)略組合。布魯頓（1989）指出，通過(guò)進(jìn)口替代工業(yè)化與建設(shè)，資本貨物部門達(dá)到技術(shù)成熟。進(jìn)口替代被認(rèn)為是成功鋪平道路的出口表現(xiàn)方式，因?yàn)橐粋€(gè)知識(shí)體系，是隨著時(shí)間的推移，在收購(gòu)對(duì)象面向國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)是產(chǎn)品之前，通常先向國(guó)際客戶生產(chǎn)。這也符合幼稚產(chǎn)業(yè)在經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)文獻(xiàn)中有一個(gè)行業(yè)

62、首先向內(nèi)轉(zhuǎn)向國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)，直到足夠的成熟，再顯現(xiàn)在外部需求和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的保護(hù)理論。</p><p>　　弗蘭克等人（1975）的高度外向型的韓國(guó)研究估計(jì)，進(jìn)口替代和擴(kuò)大出口在50年代和60年代之間對(duì)生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)都作了積極貢獻(xiàn)。比較優(yōu)勢(shì)的石化行業(yè)創(chuàng)造韓國(guó)政府是一個(gè)中間產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口替代很好的例子。這是70年代末韓國(guó)工業(yè)增長(zhǎng)和出口的新階段的基礎(chǔ)。格瓦特（1990）指出，在韓國(guó)繁榮工業(yè)增長(zhǎng)已經(jīng)平均國(guó)內(nèi)需求和出口市場(chǎng)的分布。臺(tái)灣（聯(lián)合

63、拉美經(jīng)委會(huì)、工發(fā)組織工業(yè)發(fā)展部，1986年）也提出了類似的看法。</p><p>　　因此，進(jìn)口替代和出口在區(qū)域或國(guó)家促進(jìn)生產(chǎn)一體化看來(lái)是在發(fā)展進(jìn)程中的關(guān)鍵。巴拉薩（1981）理論及圣人的發(fā)展，尤其是與此有關(guān)的經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)步是幾個(gè)圣人的設(shè)想：一個(gè)“方便”進(jìn)口的非耐久消費(fèi)品的進(jìn)口替代從事替代圣人。在此期間，外部經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生了勞動(dòng)培訓(xùn)和創(chuàng)業(yè)的形式。促進(jìn)腸胃未來(lái)作為生產(chǎn)者的途徑，以克服其國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)規(guī)模有限，合乎邏輯的步驟。隨著工業(yè)

64、生產(chǎn)過(guò)程的深入，更多的資本置換密集型中間產(chǎn)品的追求是促進(jìn)出口的另一階段。因此，促進(jìn)出口之前往往是進(jìn)口替代階段。</p><p>　　集成進(jìn)口替代和出口促進(jìn)意味著貿(mào)易引起的增長(zhǎng)是受到了外部需求和一個(gè)國(guó)家的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力水平的影響。例如，最不發(fā)達(dá)的國(guó)家出口的研究表明，從新型工業(yè)化國(guó)家貿(mào)易的收益與他們的能力相關(guān)，以維持其全球出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。如果外部需求一直不佳，較成功的人能夠保持甚至提高了多元化的出口市場(chǎng)份額或圍繞的保護(hù)主義措施（